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Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

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Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#21

Post by cwp »

pretoriusB wrote: post #11
shanelja wrote: post #2

I hadn't thought of these individual achievements as being that big until I saw them all together in one place and now I can say that this has truly been a breakthrough year all across the technology sector. Every year we seem to be accelerating our speed of development when it comes to technology, I'm only 19 and in my life I've seen us go from 56kb/s internet to 1gb/s internet, go from the rare NASA launch to regul…

> We live in the golden age of human history up to now and I would be willing to place a long bet that in 100 years, we will look back on the last 30 years as the dawn of the modern age. Well, we live in the golden age of human _technology_. But, I'd argue, far from the golden age of human history. And maybe closer than ever to the extinction of mankind, if that "let's fix the climate issue with even more technology…

"development for development's sake"? Development doesn't happen for its own sake. It's about improving the quality of human life and alleviating suffering. If you had to carry water a few miles each day, or gather firewood to keep you warm in the winter or were infected by tuberculosis, you might welcome a little development.

And sure, with great power comes great responsibility. But we've managed to avoid catastrophe so far, and with a global population of 7 billion, we're further from extinction than ever. This is truly a golden age.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#22

Post by pretoriusB »

cwp wrote: post #21
pretoriusB wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We live in the golden age of human history up to now and I would be willing to place a long bet that in 100 years, we will look back on the last 30 years as the dawn of the modern age. Well, we live in the golden age of human _technology_. But, I'd argue, far from the golden age of human history. And maybe closer than ever to the extinction of mankind, if that "let's fix the climate issue with even more technology…

"development for development's sake"? Development doesn't happen for its own sake. It's about improving the quality of human life and alleviating suffering. If you had to carry water a few miles each day, or gather firewood to keep you warm in the winter or were infected by tuberculosis, you might welcome a little development. And sure, with great power comes great responsibility. But we've managed to avoid catastrop…

>"development for development's sake"? Development doesn't happen for its own sake. It's about improving the quality of human life and alleviating suffering.

No, it's not. It's mostly about making money. No business cares about "improving the quality of human life and alleviating suffering" (they might pay lip service to that on their brochures though). Shareholders don't care about "alleviating suffering", only about return of investment.

>If you had to carry water a few miles each day, or gather firewood to keep you warm in the winter or were infected by tuberculosis, you might welcome a little development.

And yet, _billions_ of people continue to do that, and _billions_ of people die from deceases that technology has eradicated for us half a century or more ago, and development goes on to other stuff, like --to name but a few-- faster smartphones, game consoles, pet food and bling jewellery.

(I don't mean "development" as in the "scientific development" either. I mean it as business development, the idea that production, sales, whatever must continuously expand. I'd be OK with scientific development put directly in the help of humanity, like, say, AIDS drugs sold at cost in Africa instead of pricing them for profit).

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#24

Post by pretoriusB »

JanezStupar wrote: post #20
pretoriusB wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We live in the golden age of human history up to now and I would be willing to place a long bet that in 100 years, we will look back on the last 30 years as the dawn of the modern age. Well, we live in the golden age of human _technology_. But, I'd argue, far from the golden age of human history. And maybe closer than ever to the extinction of mankind, if that "let's fix the climate issue with even more technology…

Enlighten me then, when was golden age of human history then in your opinion? I have a problem with you new age romantics, bitching about issues of current civilization without providing alternatives or even realizing what "reversing" current state of affairs would really mean.

>Enlighten me then, when was golden age of human history then in your opinion?

Ever occurred to you that it might be in the future?

Or that human history was perpetually in the same state of mess? Good for a few, a nightmare for others?

Or that "good for humanity" and technological advancements are not necessarily the same thing, and that e.g living an agrarian life in some 18th century farm could be better for someone than living as an industrial worker in a highly modern Foxconn factory, despite increased odds of dying from a decease preventable today or having to get your water from the well?

Damn, I'd take living in the sixties to living in the '00s any day of the week, despite having to let go of my iPad.

>I have a problem with you new age romantics, bitching about issues of current civilization without providing alternatives or even realizing what "reversing" current state of affairs would really mean.

When there's a problem, like a cancer, you need to remove the cancer. You don't need an "alternative" to it.

Also, I'm not sure how to read the part about not realising what "reversing the current state of affairs would really mean".

Who said anything about "reversing"? There's a lot we can do without reversing anything. Stoping the market craze is not the same as "reversing" progress or anything. Not to mention that progress != building more advanced things cheaper.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#25

Post by ippisl »

JanezStupar wrote: post #20
pretoriusB wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We live in the golden age of human history up to now and I would be willing to place a long bet that in 100 years, we will look back on the last 30 years as the dawn of the modern age. Well, we live in the golden age of human _technology_. But, I'd argue, far from the golden age of human history. And maybe closer than ever to the extinction of mankind, if that "let's fix the climate issue with even more technology…

Enlighten me then, when was golden age of human history then in your opinion? I have a problem with you new age romantics, bitching about issues of current civilization without providing alternatives or even realizing what "reversing" current state of affairs would really mean.

Generally moving from monarchies to democracies could be considered a "golden" age of human history. Or maybe the rise of rationality and decline of religion.

I don't see any recent big social change that big that happened recently, except the social impact of the web. But i'm not sure i'd considered it as a big positive social change.

What would you say are the big societal changes that happened in the last decade or two ?

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#26

Post by jlgreco »

keenerd wrote: post #18
AlexeiSadeski wrote: post #7

Hurricane Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane at landfall. That's pretty much the opposite of a SUPERSTORM. Much larger hurricanes have hit New England before. For example, the "Great New England Hurricane of 1938" made landfall on Long Island as a Category 3 storm, killing over 600 people. The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 also was Category 3, killing 390 people. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Hurricane_of…

Sandy was a big deal was because it landed in a highly overdeveloped area that should not have houses. Building your residence on a sandbar (or on a flood plane or below sea level or under an active volcano) is not exactly the brightest long term thinking. While global warming is going to make weather more unpredictable, hubris will always be the leading cause of damage.

That was the issue with Katrina. Building like that where such storms have traditionally been a century occurrence rather than a yearly occurrence is a far lesser error.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#27

Post by JanezStupar »

pretoriusB wrote: post #22
cwp wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"development for development's sake"? Development doesn't happen for its own sake. It's about improving the quality of human life and alleviating suffering. If you had to carry water a few miles each day, or gather firewood to keep you warm in the winter or were infected by tuberculosis, you might welcome a little development. And sure, with great power comes great responsibility. But we've managed to avoid catastrop…

> "development for development's sake"? Development doesn't happen for its own sake. It's about improving the quality of human life and alleviating suffering. No, it's not. It's mostly about making money. No business cares about "improving the quality of human life and alleviating suffering" (they might pay lip service to that on their brochures though). Shareholders don't care about "alleviating suffering", only abo…

> No, it's not. It's mostly about making money. No business cares about "improving the quality of human life and alleviating suffering" (they might pay lip service to that on their brochures though). Shareholders don't care about "alleviating suffering", only about return of investment.

Umm, not all businesses are in the business of providing happiness to people. Some are in fact in the business of providing misery to people. Anyways, businesses are not the ones deciding what services to provide to the people, customers are. So if you want to blame anybody, blame customers (or as Tool put it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoWMmZEoT84).

> And yet, _billions_ of people continue to do that, and _billions_ of people die from deceases that technology has eradicated for us half a century or more ago, and development goes on to other stuff, like --to name but a few-- faster smartphones, game consoles, pet food and bling jewellery.

While I can easily sympathize with your position, rich western corporations don't owe jack shit to third world people. I agree that it would be nice of us to help them out. However if we are not interested in helping them out for whatever reason, they still have the option of helping themselves out - the way we helped out ourselves. I sincerely believe that we are not doing it because we want them bad, but we are too preoccupied with solving our own problems to help those guys out. Yes looking at the difference between them and us, does show our preoccupation with self interest. But the reason we solved so many of our issues in precisely our preoccupation with self interest.

> (I don't mean "development" as in the "scientific development" either. I mean it as business development, the idea that production, sales, whatever must continuously expand. I'd be OK with scientific development put directly in the help of humanity, like, say, AIDS drugs sold at cost in Africa instead of pricing them for profit).

I believe that you and other people with the same attitude as you should put your money where your mouth is and lead the way for the rest of us.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#28

Post by JanezStupar »

pretoriusB wrote: post #24
JanezStupar wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enlighten me then, when was golden age of human history then in your opinion? I have a problem with you new age romantics, bitching about issues of current civilization without providing alternatives or even realizing what "reversing" current state of affairs would really mean.

> Enlighten me then, when was golden age of human history then in your opinion? Ever occurred to you that it might be in the future? Or that human history was perpetually in the same state of mess? Good for a few, a nightmare for others? Or that "good for humanity" and technological advancements are not necessarily the same thing, and that e.g living an agrarian life in some 18th century farm could be better for some…

I believe you don't understand that the term "Golden Age" by definition refers to the past. What you are talking about is denoted by the term "Utopia".

> Or that "good for humanity" and technological advancements are not necessarily the same thing, and that e.g living an agrarian life in some 18th century farm could be better for someone than living as an industrial worker in a highly modern Foxconn factory, despite increased odds of dying from a decease preventable today or having to get your water from the well?

Excuse my ad hominem, however your attitude would lead me to believe that you are at least a middle class kid with romantic perspective. What you are proposing is an actuality for a class of people who are called, gasp... Foxconn workers. There is nearly two million of them saying that you are wrong and that they prefer working for Foxconn over 18th century farm somewhere in north/central China. And as a guy who grew up on a modern farm I decided that farming is not my cup of tea (and from family heritage that 18th century farming where you would be sentenced to hard manual labor from the age of 4 even less so). Don't get me wrong, I love nature and I like that one of my hobby's is gardening. However I absolutely adore that I have a choice.

> Damn, I'd take living in the sixties to living in the '00s any day of the week, despite having to let go of my iPad.

I believe you have no idea what 60's were like. And I believe that you should go and see more of the world.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#29

Post by JanezStupar »

ippisl wrote: post #25
JanezStupar wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enlighten me then, when was golden age of human history then in your opinion? I have a problem with you new age romantics, bitching about issues of current civilization without providing alternatives or even realizing what "reversing" current state of affairs would really mean.

Generally moving from monarchies to democracies could be considered a "golden" age of human history. Or maybe the rise of rationality and decline of religion. I don't see any recent big social change that big that happened recently, except the social impact of the web. But i'm not sure i'd considered it as a big positive social change. What would you say are the big societal changes that happened in the last decade o…

In terms of history, recently is last 200 years. True effects of todays developments shall not be seen for the foreseeable future.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#30

Post by djtriptych »

kjackson2012 wrote: post #13
scoot wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it does - it's about trends, not isolated occurrences (so in that sense I agree with your quibble, just not with your rationale). The frequency and intensity of extreme weather incidents is on an upward (and exponential) track.

No, it's not. The Earth has always experienced devastating weather-related occurrences. There's nothing about it that suggests things are on a upward and exponential track.

The process by which you came to know that the Earth has "always" experienced devastating weather is exactly the same process by which contemporary climatologists are now asserting the existence of anthropogenic climate change. You can't pick and choose when you accept knowledge arising from steadfast application of the scientific method. That's kinda the point.
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