> Canada is too intertwined with the US to truly divorce the US or even shift significant trade to Europe.
Its going to be painful no doubt, but you can do lots of painful things when you don't have a choice. I think its ultimately up to the US if they force the issue.
> I believe there's a nonzero chance the Israeli state collapses within the next decade. That's how much things are shifting and what a blunder this has been.
Its the middle east, so anything is possible, but i think that is unlikely. Its on friendlier terms now with the gulf monarchies than at any other point in its history. Its big external threats (hezbollah, hamas, iran) took their swing - they did draw blood but they aren't really in a position to do it again. Its not all roses. Israel burned through massive amounts of soft power and is suffering a brain drain due to war, but their geopolitical position seems pretty good on the whole.
That is not to mention long term dynamics with increasing renewable deployments. What does oil market look like in 10-20 years? That alone could potentially reshape the middle east.
I suspect if Israel collapses it will be due to internal conflict. It seems like their political culture is becoming more and more factionalized.
> The GCC countries are going to have the redefine a new regional security architecture that includes Iran. That's inevitable at this point. If the US had been smart they simply would've admitted defeat ~5 months ago but they can't. Because of Israel. For now.
I dont think we are at the point where that is inevitable. Obviously this isn't going amazing for USA, but still at the end of the day, USA can keep this up for a long time. Its not clear that Iran can.
>So Iran is America's Afghanistan (USSR era)
Hardly. USA is not spending anywhere near as much money and lives as USSR was in Afghanistan. The biggest impact of this conflict is price at the pump and its not even that high. Without that, would the american public even notice?