Live data from Hacker News

Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

reuters.com

11–20 of 242 posts

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#11
Edit: Whoever the hell flagged this lol....people were complaining the parent comment wasn't helpful so I took time to write a thoughtful response with citations. You can't win around here.

---

The counterintuitive part is that a lower Fed rate doesn't necessarily mean cheaper borrowing for the government. The Fed sets an overnight rate; someone lending for ten years cares about inflation and interest rates over those ten years. Keeping short-term rates low won't necessarily reassure that lender. [1]

It also helps to distinguish the government's debt from a giant credit card. Existing fixed-rate bonds keep their agreed interest payments. Higher borrowing costs feed into the budget as old debt matures and gets refinanced, and as new debt is issued. The pain accumulates rather than arriving all at once. [2]

Nor does a larger interest bill automatically require "printing money." Treasury borrowing and Fed money creation are separate decisions. [3]

The difficult question is how to contain inflation without causing more economic damage than necessary. A large debt load makes that tradeoff more expensive; it doesn't make either option painless.

[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-polic...

[2] https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/treasur...

[3] https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/how-does-the-federal-res...

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#13
post #7
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment isn't helpful. Please explain for those of us without a degree in economics.

Inflation is high, so interest rates need to go up to try to slow that, but the economy isn't doing amazing already, and higher interest rates won't help that. Not to mention the US debt is _high_ as hell and bond yields mean that's more expensive. And the country is run by a broken fool who has no interest or ability to fix any of that.

[dead]

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#14
post #3
post #2

Get ready for a fun ride my friends :) Fun ride = Oil is going up, possibly for a long time, which will have a big inflationary effect on everything. And it appears the USA government has lost the conflict it started and effectively given control over key oil delivery channels to Iran. Not to mention Saudia facing real issues from rebel groups / Yemen (simplification). Government debt is high in several key economies…

This comment isn't helpful. Please explain for those of us without a degree in economics.

The comment could be more about the politics of this not the economics, Donald Trump has made it clear he is very against this sort of rate rise

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#15
post #7
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment isn't helpful. Please explain for those of us without a degree in economics.

Inflation is high, so interest rates need to go up to try to slow that, but the economy isn't doing amazing already, and higher interest rates won't help that. Not to mention the US debt is _high_ as hell and bond yields mean that's more expensive. And the country is run by a broken fool who has no interest or ability to fix any of that.

> And the country is run by a broken fool who has no interest or ability to fix any of that.

Trump will be gone in three years, but you'll still have an electorate that wants more free stuff while also getting tax cuts. There is zero appetite for fiscal reform in the U.S. The geometric growth rate of U.S. debt has been consistent since 2010 and will remain so when AOC is President: https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-debt-does-the-us-have/...

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#16
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment isn't helpful. Please explain for those of us without a degree in economics.

Higher rates means USG will need to print more money to pay for $40TN debt which will increase inflation which will force higher rates.

The debt is owed by the treasury, fed prints the money. What you’re describing is not how the monetary system works.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#17

Should have been this high years ago. The country - particularly this industry, information technology - got addicted to cheap cash. Worse, people didn't want to pay any of it back in tax, so bond yields are going to go up on the debt that was issued to cover deficit spending. Should be interesting to see how this impacts the AI hyper-scalers. They were already burning through cash like a furnace and were running out…

>Should be interesting to see how this impacts the AI hyper-scalers. They were already burning through cash like a furnace and were running out of people to borrow from

looks very similar to 2007-2008 - high rates plus an wide economy segment with very large debt. Now, the interesting question - did anybody "too large to fail" do (or got exposed in some other ways to) leveraged CDS on the hyperscalers bonds and private debt.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#18
post #7
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment isn't helpful. Please explain for those of us without a degree in economics.

Inflation is high, so interest rates need to go up to try to slow that, but the economy isn't doing amazing already, and higher interest rates won't help that. Not to mention the US debt is _high_ as hell and bond yields mean that's more expensive. And the country is run by a broken fool who has no interest or ability to fix any of that.

Yay stagflation!

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#19
post #3
post #2

Get ready for a fun ride my friends :) Fun ride = Oil is going up, possibly for a long time, which will have a big inflationary effect on everything. And it appears the USA government has lost the conflict it started and effectively given control over key oil delivery channels to Iran. Not to mention Saudia facing real issues from rebel groups / Yemen (simplification). Government debt is high in several key economies…

This comment isn't helpful. Please explain for those of us without a degree in economics.

Last time interest rates went up, Startups and SaaS went down, which many on HN 's livelihood depends.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#20
post #2

Get ready for a fun ride my friends :) Fun ride = Oil is going up, possibly for a long time, which will have a big inflationary effect on everything. And it appears the USA government has lost the conflict it started and effectively given control over key oil delivery channels to Iran. Not to mention Saudia facing real issues from rebel groups / Yemen (simplification). Government debt is high in several key economies…

This is the right move. Inflationary pressures due to high oil prices and tariffs are not going away anytime soon. All the economic numbers point to a need for a rate hike. Not doing so has a much larger effect on the financial system than a 25 bps rate hike. Stagflation is a bigger risk to the economy.

Counterintuitively the rate hike can help lower things like mortgage rates by stabilizing the bond yields.

Post reply on HN