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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

dank.systems

251–260 of 646 posts

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If all you do is read chess books, you'll be a shit player. Training and practice is what it takes to be great.

Oh right. But if all you do is reading programming books you are an amazing programmer? Where is all the training and practice LLMs did to become so good at coding?

It's called post-training, typically through some form of reinforcement learning, and is a significant part of modern LLM development.

You have the first stage, pre-training, which is learning from next token prediction. That's where the model memorises a lot of facts about things and generally gets good at forms of writing. It's like reading a lot of books on programming and reading through a lot of source code. It's learning how to autocomplete code, essentially. Doing that requires a developing a reasonable understanding of code, but it's also learning how to autocomplete bad code as well as good, and won't make it a "good" programmer.

Pre-training uses a method called Cross-Entropy Loss to update the weights of the network.

Then comes post-training. This is where the model is trained against huge sets of example problems, like fixing a bug, adding a new feature based on a spec, etc. They are set the task and try to complete it inside a training environment. Once they're done, their complete solution is evaluated (either by humans, or by some separate evaluation model that was developed based on human feedback) and they are updated based on whether the solution was good or not.

Post-training uses a different method called Proximal policy optimization to update the weights of the network.

So these really are very different forms of learning, and mainstream LLMs are not post-trained to be good at chess. They could be. You could easily create a reinforcement learning environment that evaluated and improved their ability to play and win at chess. The result would be a very strong chess playing AI, something we know is possible because the strongest chess playing programs we have are neural network based, but it is not a priority for AI companies.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why should that matter? Because we want to use this as a replacement for humans, and the average human can learn the rules of chess without needing to see the rules explained hundreds of thousands of times in millions of games. So, yeah, it matters if a model has millions of examples of something in its training set and still cannot follow the rules.

We're not talking about learning the rules of chess here, but playing a competent game from just being shown the rules. Why is it so hard for people to keep track of the thread of discussion?

But we are. The models can't even follow the rules: they try illegal moves all the time.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#253
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans don’t code a $game engine to play $game, they can just play it. It seems like you are the one that has gone insane.

And how many years of direct play and study does it take for a human to get good at chess or any other game? Absolutely no human ever could be good at chess just by reading a few books, or even every book on chess. That's just not how the brain works. If LLMs could do that they would truly be superintelligence.

> Absolutely no human ever could be good at chess just by reading a few books, or even every book on chess.

Maybe not, but you'd be surprised how little it takes.

A six year old child can learn the rules of chess well enough to be able to play legal moves only in a single day. And they can improve their game at a pace which is almost frightening to behold. I have taught children, and I've witnessed significant improvement materialise in a single game. LLMs have probably thousands of chess books, games, videos, etc in their training data, yet they are unable to even follow the rules.

This is, at the very least, interesting. It illustrates many of the things brains can do, which current ML systems in general, and LLMs in particular, can't.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Claude Fable would destroy any human at chess by coding a strong enough engine on the fly. A bash script can clone and build stockfish, feed in human moves, and reply. By your standard, this bash script would "destroy any human at chess." Are you interested in assessing the intelligence of the model, or the intelligence of the tools the model can use?

Maybe practically it doesn’t matter? Perhaps AGI is not the model but the model plus everything it’s got access to. If we’re modelling intelligence in the way we seem to have to to have any coherent definition of AGI, it seems to me is always going to be more “intelligent” than alone.

That would mean we should consider any human with coding knowledge a chess grandmaster, which is obviously not the case.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#255
post #111

> current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest task As models advance, we shift the goalpost for what "simplest task" means. Before, "simplest task " meant "write a coherent English sentence." Now, "simplest task" means autonomously fix, review, and merge a bugfix.

Eliza wrote coherent English sentences.

And you know compare Eliza with what an LLM can do today?

Or do i miss the point you are trying to do?

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#256

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

If you give the same task to an exceptionally intelligent human, who does not play chess and has only heard about it in passing, then they would be beaten by every child who has looked at the rules for more than 10 minutes.

What kind of intelligence is "playing but we don't tell you the rules" supposed to test?

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#257

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

Well, yes, PGN files have structure... But still, playing Chess with an LLM is so weird that I impulsively question the sanity of people attempting to do so. Do some people really believe training on TWIC PGNs would make an LLM a good chess player?

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#258
post #211

The challenge with estimating abilities, is that we don’t know what the models can achieve if we just burn enough money. The navier-stokes shows us what mathematical problem can be solved when $10m worth of compute is thrown at something. It also makes one wonder: What could AI solve if we managed to orchestrate billions worth of agents to take on a specific problem? IMO the very best case scenario / potential for th…

The whole point of this post was that it's questionable what can be achieved without huge investments into oversight and steering, because navier-stokes was a topic with an unusual level of specification. The problem itself was a specification. Such situations are rare in real-world scenarios. AI agents are good at solving well-specified tasks, not at solving problems. They do well in fields where the cost/effort of…

> a topic with an unusual level of specification

Solving cancer also has an unusual level of specification. Many real world problems have that characteristic.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#259
post #73

The premise in the very first point seems off: > the frontier labs are priced according to the narrative that they have produced or will in the very near future produce a fully automated drop-in replacement for most knowledge workers... Even assuming this is how the AI companies are being valued (they're not), the numbers are off. The "value" of most knowledge workers -- based on what enterprises currently pay for th…

> The "value" of most knowledge workers -- based on what enterprises currently pay for them -- is $50 - 70 trillion annually. It's reasonable to assume that if AI drop-in-replaced all those knowledge workers, AI companies could credibly charge somewhere in that order of magnitude, because that's what the market is already bearing.

I don't think that AI companies can charge the same. The human workforce can charge these costs, because of scarcity. But AI systems won't be scarce, it's just a matter of who can run inference cheapest. Plus you still have the human workforce, which might be forced to offer their time for less money.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If something has general intelligence it should be able to read the rules of a game and follow them. Therefore an artificial general intelligence (AGI) should be able to do this. So we have a situation where very powerful and influential people are saying we will have AGI in 6 months (if we don’t already), yet the facts on the ground are so clearly pointing in the opposite direction.

So we humans are not a general intelligence then? And the stuff i'm using LLMs daily is just fake? I see i see. I will see myself out of this weird discussion while I let an LLM continue doing a lot of interesting things.

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