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Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

reuters.com

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Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#161

Post by rurp »

brainwad wrote: post #130
throw0101c wrote: post #44

Italian and Greek bonds now have lower yields/rates (i.e., considered lower risk(?)) than US bonds: * https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/

Italy recently issued USD-denominated bonds, which are directly comparable, and the yields are much higher. The 30y ones are at 6.21% YTM now, vs 5.37% for US 30y Ts. For comparison, Alphabet borrows cheaper than Italy: 6.02% on 2060 maturities.

It's wild to me that a private company in a volatile industry like Google can borrow so cheaply for such a long period. I get that they have been wildly profitable and powerful in recent years, but modern history is absolutely stuffed with companies that seemed invincible at one point but then were dead or dying a decade later.

Tech in particular has an awful lot of churn. There's isn't a single tech company in the world that I'm highly confident will be reliably printing money 34 years from now.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#162

Post by haizhung »

IMHO this is an effect of the exponentially increasing wealth inequality.

We are allowing a tiny elite to hold a larger and larger fraction of the overall wealth, while workers, middle class AND the government are losing more and more of the wealth.

Governments, until now, are refusing to tax the uberrich, and continue to squeeze out workers and middle class in an attempt to stop the bleeding. Since this is bound to not work (workers and middle class are rapidly losing their share as well); governments are forced to scrap public services like health care, housing, schools, etc.

Bond markets are now realizing that the governments are not taxing the only fraction of society who owns everything - and so it makes sense that the bond markets become increasingly worried that governments can pay their interest at all.

Tax the rich.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#163

Post by kvuj »

throw0101c wrote: post #44

Italian and Greek bonds now have lower yields/rates (i.e., considered lower risk(?)) than US bonds: * https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/

Couldn't be bothered to read the article before commenting?

> James Bilson, global fixed income strategist at Schroders, said fiscal policy and debt sustainability are crucial for bond markets and the current rise in U.S. yields is not yet a sign of increasing sovereign credit risk.

> The cost of insuring U.S. sovereign debt against the risk of default, as reflected by credit default swaps, has fallen to its lowest since February, for example.

> "Combined policy is too loose to deliver sustained 2% inflation," he said. "This, in one line, is the root cause of the current weakness in bonds. Solve inflation, and many other problems become much easier too."

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#164

Post by willy_k »

dragontamer wrote: post #56
willy_k wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Response to sister comment: conservatism, and the groups that claim to support it, are separate. Same with liberals, and socialists, and the Democrat Party.

So name one. These politicans have names, do they not? We do have the name of one politician who balanced the New York City budget though. Its probably not going to please a lot of people to hear that guy's name though. But that's what people want, right? Balanced budgets? But no. That's not what people want and we all know it.

So what is he? A Democrat, and what else? Parties are groups of people, ideologies are pure ideals. They are distinct, with overlaps in their demographics.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#165

Post by geoka9 »

pjc50 wrote: post #6

The war(s), especially with the impact on pipelines and the Houthis taking over more of Yemen, are finally affecting fuel prices and hence turning the global economic outlook less positive. You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.

> turning the global economic outlook less positive

Specifically, mounting inflation expectations, no? Investors wouldn't want to park their money at 4% if they expect inflation that is close or higher than that.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#166

Post by rileymat2 »

haizhung wrote: post #162

IMHO this is an effect of the exponentially increasing wealth inequality. We are allowing a tiny elite to hold a larger and larger fraction of the overall wealth, while workers, middle class AND the government are losing more and more of the wealth. Governments, until now, are refusing to tax the uberrich, and continue to squeeze out workers and middle class in an attempt to stop the bleeding. Since this is bound to…

I don't understand how this is a wealth inequality issue, excess capital should cause bond prices to go down not up, as more wealthy are competing for more investments driving bond yields down.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#167

Post by method_capital »

bigbadfeline wrote: post #126
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See what Clinton did? Well, he said he'd create a plan to balance the budget. And he did. It was a ten-year plan, and it involved doing very little for the first eight years, and then doing the real work in years nine and ten - that is, after Clinton was out of office, even if he got a second term. Then 1994 happened, and the Contract With America. The Republicans took both the House and the Senate, and they passed a…

> The Republicans took both the House and the Senate, and they passed a balanced budget And Clinton signed it, which is what matters. Now the Republicans have both the House and the Senate plus the WH , where's the "balanced budget"? Nowhere, don't ask for it, nobody is going to sign it either - ask for $ 1.5 T Mil Bill and record deficits if you want it to pass. Do you know what the 1995 Mil Bill asked for? The Cont…

The two parties were run by literate, service minded, adults back in the day.

If you believe in fiscal responsibility of any kind, if you believe said is critical to the survival of the republic, if you want a better future for our children and grandchildren, then you can't possibly vote for either of these parties today. They are both complete and utter failures with no improvement in sight.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#168

Post by method_capital »

CursedSilicon wrote: post #112
podocarp wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The words are so overloaded. Republican is just generic right wing. I think the "conservative" the parent is talking about is the neoliberalism like what Milton Friedman would propose. He would have wanted half of the government gone, next to no market intervention (he even argued against seatbelts in one lecture). That would actually be the "conservative" someone you stereotypically imagine like Ron Swanson would ad…

Oh, you want "libertarianism" then. Not the original kind, the Ayn Rand kind That always works out well. Until the bears come [1] [1] https://newrepublic.com/article/159662/libertarian-walks-int...

He didn't say what he "wanted". We're so blinded by partisan stupidity we can't even be bothered to read, understand, and think anymore.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#169

Post by method_capital »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #90
method_capital wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly? Conservatives: +-------------------------+----------------------------------------+ | President Name | Deficit Increase (+) or Decrease (-) | +-------------------------+----------------------------------------+ | Donald Trump (2nd term) | N/A | | Donald Trump (1st term…

We found someone whose ai believes the President controls spending!

Congress controls spending in the United States:

Cumulative Share of Debt (Post-WWII to Present)When analyzing the raw accumulation of publicly held national debt according to which party held majorities in both chambers of Congress, findings from congressional studies (such as the Joint Economic Committee) reveal distinct differences:

(https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/2011...)

Democratic Control ~57% to 74% of gross debt

Republican Control ~10% to 25% of gross debt

Split / Divided Control ~22% of public debt

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#170

Post by keeda »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #98
echelon wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Make it $100k and pay it to me directly. I'm not a fan of Musk, but his driverless cars are already driving around in my city alongside Waymo. His rocketship thing will probably be delivering tanks to the other side of the world within hours if the DoD gets their way. I'm getting more work done every day than in entire months pre-2026, and I've done my share of hard engineering. I think you're the one coping. They ju…

> They just solved a Millennium Problem for fuck's sake. Oh wow, they can solve formal proof test driven development. That's great! I too think it's cool. It isn't going to replace lawyers, doctors, nurses, tradespeople, and everyone else that drives the economy that isn't LLM output. The most successful YC startups have been DoorDash, Coinbase, and Airbnb; regulatory arb and a crypto gambling site. I do not disagree…

I like to cite those St. Louis Fed links too but for the opposite reason. With the caveat that it's based on survey data, it is one of the few data sources that shows the real of AI in the real world. And it is pretty astounding. It is only used for 6% of all work hours but it saves 2% of all work hours.

That is very low usage, but that is a 33% savings!

Now let's put that trillions in capex into perspective. About 55% of people use it for 6% of all work hours. Approximating a bit, that's basically 3% of all of the work hours by all of the workers in all of US, and as above, AI saves a 3rd of that time, so AI is already saving 1% of all work hours in the US!

(In case you think this Math is off, the same St. Louis Fed articles above have similar numbers, and corroborates with other national data sources as well as research studies, and suggests that the impact of GenAI may already be showing up in "national level statistics" to the tune of a 1.3% bump in national labor productivity! With only this shallow level of adoption! In just 3 years! It took the computer revolution about 2 decades to show up in economics data.)

According to the BLS, employers pay $12.3 trillion for that work. So a 1% savings on that is a $123 billion. An up front ~$2T investment over 2 - 4 years that is already saving $123 billion annually in the US alone is pretty damn good actually, and will only go up as usage improves.

This is not hope, this is data, and you had already brought it with you! ;-)

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