Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

> the best alternative to rigorous specification is human review. human review doesn't scale well to the volumes of output produced by language models. to make matters worse

when the business model is selling more tokens you get such per serve ice times that lead to “more” thinking, engagement baiting, fluffy narratives, and straight up dark patterns

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#5

Post by pfdietz » Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 10:44 PM UTC

Specifically: bearish on LLMs generally, not bearish on LLMs for pure math.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#6

Post by jaykru » Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 10:53 PM UTC

robinpie wrote: post #3

I really appreciate seeing a tempered take that's not literally denialist about current capabilities.

Thanks :) I do enjoy and use these things every day and the current capabilities are indeed amazing, just ludicrously overpriced at the frontier.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#7

Post by jaykru » Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 10:53 PM UTC

pfdietz wrote: post #5

Specifically: bearish on LLMs generally, not bearish on LLMs for pure math.

yes, huge for pure math and activities that look like it.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#8

Post by brindleth » Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 11:02 PM UTC

robinpie wrote: post #3

I really appreciate seeing a tempered take that's not literally denialist about current capabilities.

> current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks

It is literally denialist about current capabilities

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#9

Post by jaykru » Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

brindleth wrote: post #8

robinpie wrote: post #3

I really appreciate seeing a tempered take that's not literally denialist about current capabilities.

> current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks It is literally denialist about current capabilities

why don't anthropic and openai ship yolo mode by default?

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#10

Post by an0malous » Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC

robinpie wrote: post #3

I really appreciate seeing a tempered take that's not literally denialist about current capabilities.

I don’t know who you’re talking about, even the most bearish people like Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron acknowledge that LLMs are useful in these same cases the OP admits. Gary Marcus is even still a long term AI advocate, he just doesn’t think LLMs are enough and we need more foundational breakthroughs. Zitron says it’s valuable technology but not worth the trillion dollar valuations the frontier labs are claiming.

The lack of temperament is very skewed towards the bulls who have been saying AGI is here, software engineering is solved, mathematics is solved, it’s going to destroy the white collar job market, and it’s going to kill us all for like 5 years now.