81–90 of 185 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It isn't the debt levels that are causing the rates to spike, rather the start of the emerging Bretton Woods III era.
Could you be a bit more specific about what you think "Bretton Woods III" is?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Eliminate candidates who promise to lower taxes (slows down debt repayment substantially) and those who promise new or expanded services. Who's left? "I'll tax you a little more and not spend that money" is a tough pitch, even if it would be helpful for the debt. I think Clinton was the last us president to balance the budget and start reducing the deficit so I guess see what he did.
See what Clinton did? Well, he said he'd create a plan to balance the budget. And he did. It was a ten-year plan, and it involved doing very little for the first eight years, and then doing the real work in years nine and ten - that is, after Clinton was out of office, even if he got a second term. Then 1994 happened, and the Contract With America. The Republicans took both the House and the Senate, and they passed a…
Or just hurry up and invent ASI and let it be someone else's problem to take care of this crazy human zoo.
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Well just as bad for international lenders as inflation is the devaluation [1] that Trump intentionally caused. We have the worst deficits ever, zero appetite for even acknowledging that the record deficits exist, and only massive plans for double digit percentage increases in the deficit on the tab (e.g. increasing military spending to $1.5T from $1T/year) It was a mad strategy to both cause more inflation with over…
There is no way to grow the US economy due to structural demographics except immigration levels the US electorate is unwilling to accept. We have long ago exceeded the debt we could accumulate based on the future growth curve inherent to the prime working age cohort. The credit card of young workers and a growing population ("demographic dividend" in demographics parlance) has hit its limit to spend against, broadly…
AI and robotics.
Engineering is becoming cheaper.
Graphics design is becoming cheaper.
Lawyering is becoming cheaper.
Entertainment, film, and gaming (not hardware) is becoming cheaper.
This will eventually hit manufacturing and logistics and critical inputs.
We'll be able to have an entire robotic supply chain domestically save for raw materials.
It will hit drug design and medicine. Physics and materials science.
We'll increase the supply of energy, develop cheaper and more cost effective transportation.
The improvements will pay dividends. They'll buy further improvements.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well just as bad for international lenders as inflation is the devaluation [1] that Trump intentionally caused. We have the worst deficits ever, zero appetite for even acknowledging that the record deficits exist, and only massive plans for double digit percentage increases in the deficit on the tab (e.g. increasing military spending to $1.5T from $1T/year) It was a mad strategy to both cause more inflation with over…
There is no way to grow the US economy due to structural demographics except immigration levels the US electorate is unwilling to accept. We have long ago exceeded the debt we could accumulate based on the future growth curve inherent to the prime working age cohort. The credit card of young workers and a growing population ("demographic dividend" in demographics parlance) has hit its limit to spend against, broadly…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?
> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly? Who could you vote for, in any democracy, that would fit this? Also, how many voters would have the wherewithal to identify such a person?
Humans are designed to operate in smallish clans with benevolent dictators whose right to rule is based on social currency with people they personally know. Anything else is a house of cards on unstable foundation.
I'm not sure how you fix that, but democracy so far has maybe been the least bad patch.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Debt service costs as a percent of GDP are in fact lower than they were in the 1980's This is an amazing use of the "in fact" trope, in exactly the same misleading way[1]. I talked about debt, and you casually shifted to servicing costs which presumes that rates stay historically low...when they're actually rapidly rising. Comical. In the 1980s, the debt to GDP ratio was less than half what it currently is. Rates w…
You're doubling down with more hyperbole. What's the policy suggestion? What do you propose to cut? Where do you propose to find new revenue? What compromises are you willing to make to other priorities and what stands are you taking on which you won't budge? Shouting about deficits is, to be blunt, just crack for the incurious mind. It's a party you're throwing for people who agree with you. Refusing to treat with t…
I'm not American, and no one needs to "save me". The country is a fucking idiocracy, and you elected a fascist self-dealing conman pedophile rapist. I pointed out objective, indisputable reality and you responded with some farcical lies and pearl clutching nonsense.
But you know, when your country is bankrupt, increasing military spending $600B, paying for endless vanity projects for that disgusting bag of shit to emblazon his shameful name on your country for eternity, or even entertaining the disgusting "bribe the population" farce is just fantasy.
Endlessly giving tax cuts and breaks to your kleptocracy/plutocrat class...maybe an incredibly stupid thing to do, no?
Nah, something something 1980s nothing we can do hey let's build an arch to celebrate the most catastrophically destructive president in history!
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There is 0 risk to getting repaid from the US. We will print for the lenders the exact amount they are promised. Promises kept. All is good
I feel like there is an inside joke here, so I apologize if I am being a bit spectrum-y taking it at face value. Every sovereign can print money and repay lenders, but doing so cause an inflationary cycle. When it looks like that is inevitable, borrowing rates start spiralling, so you have to print more money, and soon you are Zimbabwe. Like the US is catastrophically indebted -- both parties have been negligent on t…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no way to grow the US economy due to structural demographics except immigration levels the US electorate is unwilling to accept. We have long ago exceeded the debt we could accumulate based on the future growth curve inherent to the prime working age cohort. The credit card of young workers and a growing population ("demographic dividend" in demographics parlance) has hit its limit to spend against, broadly…
> There is no way to grow the US economy AI and robotics. Engineering is becoming cheaper. Graphics design is becoming cheaper. Lawyering is becoming cheaper. Entertainment, film, and gaming (not hardware) is becoming cheaper. This will eventually hit manufacturing and logistics and critical inputs. We'll be able to have an entire robotic supply chain domestically save for raw materials. It will hit drug design and m…
[1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 - January 23rd, 2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law ("The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.")
Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.
Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?
Conservatives:
+-------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| President Name | Deficit Increase (+) or Decrease (-) |
+-------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Donald Trump (2nd term) | N/A |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | +11.1% |
| George W. Bush | +4.3% |
| George H. W. Bush | +1.8% |
| Ronald Reagan | +0.5% |
| Gerald Ford | +0.8% |
| Richard Nixon | +0.7% |
| Dwight D. Eisenhower | -1.8% |
+-------------------------+----------------------------------------+
+-------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| President Name | Deficit Increase (+) or Decrease (-) |
+-------------------------+----------------------------------------+
| Joe Biden | -5.7% |
| Barack Obama | -6.7% |
| Bill Clinton | -6.1% |
| Jimmy Carter | -0.1% |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | +1.9% |
+-------------------------+----------------------------------------+