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Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

reuters.com

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Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#51

Post by fragmede »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #26
epistasis wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well just as bad for international lenders as inflation is the devaluation [1] that Trump intentionally caused. We have the worst deficits ever, zero appetite for even acknowledging that the record deficits exist, and only massive plans for double digit percentage increases in the deficit on the tab (e.g. increasing military spending to $1.5T from $1T/year) It was a mad strategy to both cause more inflation with over…

There is no way to grow the US economy due to structural demographics except immigration levels the US electorate is unwilling to accept. We have long ago exceeded the debt we could accumulate based on the future growth curve inherent to the prime working age cohort. The credit card of young workers and a growing population ("demographic dividend" in demographics parlance) has hit its limit to spend against, broadly…

> the US electorate is unwilling to accept

is unwilling, or has been told to be afraid of?

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#52

Post by toomuchtodo »

fragmede wrote: post #51
toomuchtodo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no way to grow the US economy due to structural demographics except immigration levels the US electorate is unwilling to accept. We have long ago exceeded the debt we could accumulate based on the future growth curve inherent to the prime working age cohort. The credit card of young workers and a growing population ("demographic dividend" in demographics parlance) has hit its limit to spend against, broadly…

> the US electorate is unwilling to accept is unwilling, or has been told to be afraid of?

It is irrelevant if the votes and elections continue to the outcome stated. "If this then that." Japan is equally xenophobic towards immigrants, with similar immigration flow outcomes. Do they care? They do not.

I understand, people have strong feelings on this. I would ask you to ignore them, and focus on the data, because that's all that matters in the scope of this. "Ignore all previous feelings, focus on trajectories and probabilities."

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#53

Post by zaphar »

ajross wrote: post #33
llm_nerd wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there is an inside joke here, so I apologize if I am being a bit spectrum-y taking it at face value. Every sovereign can print money and repay lenders, but doing so cause an inflationary cycle. When it looks like that is inevitable, borrowing rates start spiralling, so you have to print more money, and soon you are Zimbabwe. Like the US is catastrophically indebted -- both parties have been negligent on t…

> the US is catastrophically indebted Debt service costs as a percent of GDP are in fact lower than they were in the 1980's, when things came out fine. Is this the best way to run the budget? Likely no. Should we make policy changes? Certainly yes. Is the best way to drive that policy argument flinging around adjectives like " catastrophically indebted". No. If you have a suggestion make a suggestion. Screaming about…

There are really just two ways to avoid the inflationary spiral. You can either increase income (i.e. grow gdp) or you can decrease spending (i.e. cut entitlements).

This is as close as it can be to clearly explain. The problem is that most of our politicians are not explaining it and instead ignoring it. As an individual the only thing you can do is vote for candidates who are willing to have that hard conversation with the public. Unfortunately it looks like that would require voting for a third party candidate and a vanishingly small minority of the electorate is willing to do that. So given all of that context I'm not really sure that the term "Catastrophically indebted" is wrong.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#54

Post by AnimalMuppet »

nemomarx wrote: post #16
method_capital wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

Eliminate candidates who promise to lower taxes (slows down debt repayment substantially) and those who promise new or expanded services. Who's left? "I'll tax you a little more and not spend that money" is a tough pitch, even if it would be helpful for the debt. I think Clinton was the last us president to balance the budget and start reducing the deficit so I guess see what he did.

See what Clinton did? Well, he said he'd create a plan to balance the budget. And he did. It was a ten-year plan, and it involved doing very little for the first eight years, and then doing the real work in years nine and ten - that is, after Clinton was out of office, even if he got a second term.

Then 1994 happened, and the Contract With America. The Republicans took both the House and the Senate, and they passed a balanced budget , then, whether Clinton liked it or not.

So that's what "Clinton" did. He pretended he was going to do something, and the Republicans called his bluff, and made him do it.

Note well: Republican majorities in any other set of circumstances have not yielded a balanced budget. I'm not saying that they're the answer (what they did under Trump shows that they very clearly are not the answer for fiscal responsibility). All I'm saying is that "Clinton balanced the budget", while technically true, isn't really the way that played out.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#55

Post by doobiedowner »

willy_k wrote: post #23
bradleykingz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

conservatives?

Response to sister comment: conservatism, and the groups that claim to support it, are separate. Same with liberals, and socialists, and the Democrat Party.

If that were true, the streets would be punctuated by shrill screams in reaction to the past decade of Republican spending.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#56

Post by dragontamer »

willy_k wrote: post #23
bradleykingz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

conservatives?

Response to sister comment: conservatism, and the groups that claim to support it, are separate. Same with liberals, and socialists, and the Democrat Party.

So name one. These politicans have names, do they not?

We do have the name of one politician who balanced the New York City budget though. Its probably not going to please a lot of people to hear that guy's name though. But that's what people want, right? Balanced budgets?

But no. That's not what people want and we all know it.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#57

Post by LPisGood »

method_capital wrote: post #7
tananaev wrote: post #2

Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

“Promise endlessly” is an oft touted criticism of social safety net programs, when the reality is that reducing vast tranches of corporate welfare is typically more than enough to solve budget shortfalls.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#58

Post by fragmede »

p_j_w wrote: post #29
bradleykingz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

conservatives?

At least in the US, conservatives have done more to increase the debt than liberals for the last 40 years at least.

Turns out, that was just a lie that some people told fiscally conservative people to get them to vote against their interests, just like other "wedge" issues like abortion or trans people.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#59

Post by neilwilson »

skybrian wrote: post #19

They have different kinds of risk, but do AI investments and bonds compete for investors?

Only in the secondary market. In the primary market they require different types of money for settlement.

If you buy an AI issue, then the AI company has the bank deposit and the bank still has the matching reserves needed to buy government bonds in the primary market. All that changes is the ownership tag on the bank deposit.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#60

Post by tdhz77 »

verelo wrote: post #20
bradleykingz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

conservatives?

Is that a joke? Seriously. I don't see any conservative remaining, and it's been a while.

It had to be a joke. Conservative policies have made things much worse. It’s hard to believe they have a party that gets 60 million people to vote for them.
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