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Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

reuters.com

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Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#31

Post by kingleopold »

method_capital wrote: post #7
tananaev wrote: post #2

Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

japan is an empire, longest one too, you can't vote for that LMAO

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#32

Post by npongratz »

method_capital wrote: post #7
tananaev wrote: post #2

Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

> vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly

I wish you luck. Endless promises and short term thinking are the main things the system incentivizes. Each politician is temporarily renting their seat, paid for by other people. Each bureaucrat is studiously, steadfastly avoiding learning anything that threatens their continued employment, which is paid for by other people.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#33

Post by ajross »

llm_nerd wrote: post #22
whatever1 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is 0 risk to getting repaid from the US. We will print for the lenders the exact amount they are promised. Promises kept. All is good

I feel like there is an inside joke here, so I apologize if I am being a bit spectrum-y taking it at face value. Every sovereign can print money and repay lenders, but doing so cause an inflationary cycle. When it looks like that is inevitable, borrowing rates start spiralling, so you have to print more money, and soon you are Zimbabwe. Like the US is catastrophically indebted -- both parties have been negligent on t…

> the US is catastrophically indebted

Debt service costs as a percent of GDP are in fact lower than they were in the 1980's, when things came out fine. Is this the best way to run the budget? Likely no. Should we make policy changes? Certainly yes.

Is the best way to drive that policy argument flinging around adjectives like "catastrophically indebted". No. If you have a suggestion make a suggestion. Screaming about "The Problem" without discussing policy is echo chamber logic.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#34

Post by whatever1 »

llm_nerd wrote: post #22
whatever1 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is 0 risk to getting repaid from the US. We will print for the lenders the exact amount they are promised. Promises kept. All is good

I feel like there is an inside joke here, so I apologize if I am being a bit spectrum-y taking it at face value. Every sovereign can print money and repay lenders, but doing so cause an inflationary cycle. When it looks like that is inevitable, borrowing rates start spiralling, so you have to print more money, and soon you are Zimbabwe. Like the US is catastrophically indebted -- both parties have been negligent on t…

Not sure it plays out that determistically. If the gov prints money to just payoff debt without increasing the government spending, there is no new money entering the market.

You just pay off old promises that were expected to be kept.

The real risk is that new lenders will not be willing to lend you, yes. But not outright inflation.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#35

Post by pjc50 »

bradleykingz wrote: post #17
lordnacho wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly? Who could you vote for, in any democracy, that would fit this? Also, how many voters would have the wherewithal to identify such a person?

conservatives?

Trump, sitting on top of a Republican government, is responsible for 10Trn of the debt, about a quarter.

Conservatives gave up on principles long ago and have settled for simply lying about everything, including what's happening and who's responsible for it.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#36

Post by cyanydeez »

method_capital wrote: post #7
tananaev wrote: post #2

Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.

Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

you don't think what they promise is important?

Just seems like one of those weird ambiguities.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#37

Post by ethagnawl »

danans wrote: post #9
pjc50 wrote: post #6

The war(s), especially with the impact on pipelines and the Houthis taking over more of Yemen, are finally affecting fuel prices and hence turning the global economic outlook less positive. You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.

> You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining. What's different between the two is that apparently China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves, despite no significant reduction in travel, and despite reducing its import demand by 1 OPEC. It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel…

> It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel and shifts from gasoline cars to EVs.

From a distance, those look like pretty sound theories.

It's wild that the pols and talking heads in the US have been screeching about how "dangerous" China is since the 90s (I remember family members making crude jokes about why I should be learning Mandarin instead of Spanish in middle school) and, yet, here we are doing everything we can to hand them the reins of world power.

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#38

Post by AnimalMuppet »

rob74 wrote: post #27
tananaev wrote: post #2

Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.

One contributing factor might be that AI companies are raising money via (amongst other methods) also issuing bonds, which might compete with government bonds.

[dead]

Re: Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

#39

Post by SilasX »

whatever1 wrote: post #34
llm_nerd wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there is an inside joke here, so I apologize if I am being a bit spectrum-y taking it at face value. Every sovereign can print money and repay lenders, but doing so cause an inflationary cycle. When it looks like that is inevitable, borrowing rates start spiralling, so you have to print more money, and soon you are Zimbabwe. Like the US is catastrophically indebted -- both parties have been negligent on t…

Not sure it plays out that determistically. If the gov prints money to just payoff debt without increasing the government spending, there is no new money entering the market. You just pay off old promises that were expected to be kept. The real risk is that new lenders will not be willing to lend you, yes. But not outright inflation.

So you agree it's a problem, but still characterized the situation as "all is good" in your first comment. I would not call that good, and I would be have used different words to characterize/trivialize this situation.
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