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For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

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Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#161

Post by LogicFailsMe »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #155
LogicFailsMe wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define it. I haven't seen anything yet from a coding agent I couldn't write myself and usually write better. But I don't have to gold plate every line of code, just the 5% or so that eats 90+% of the cycles. And this is where the agents are weakest. This does get to one of the reasons I don't believe AI cures death or builds von Neumann replicators any time soon because that requires out of sample breakthroughs. And…

Is there a retrospective on AlphaFold you’d recommend? Maybe that’s the insight I’m missing, I didn’t realize it had broad identifiable gaps like that.

Here's one: https://www.orbion.life/blog/alphafold-s-limitations-what-it...

I see similar conceptual gaps in coding agents when I work with them, even Astra and Fable, so maybe this a is decent proxy to describe the gap between hype and reality.

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#162

Post by MentalM »

mrob wrote: post #108
goatlover wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds like a rationalization for gambling with everyone's lives, assuming they really believe such a thing.

What's the alternative? There's no realistic way to globally coordinate and enforce a ban. A direct action campaign against AI labs would only motivate increased security until sabotage becomes impossible. Starting a nuclear war would probably be enough to stop dangerous AI research, and that's only likely to kill about 50% of humans instead 100%, so it's a great improvement, but how is an individual supposed to star…

> There's no realistic way to globally coordinate and enforce a ban.

I don't see what is unrealistic about that.

The major players already have strong incentives to freeze AI advancements at the the current state, while the technology is highly efficient for totalitarian surveillance systems that can eliminate any threat to their power in the buds, but still not so advanced that it could create crises that might endanger their power.

So I think the situation where several largest countries declare AI a deadly threat for humanity and start fighting it development much like they fight ISIS to be quite plausible.

This isn't a prisoner's dilemma; the distribution of risks and rewards is entirely different. Ban AI research, give away advanced models, bomb a couple of Russian datacenters where they launching those models unsafely, and then AI development will stop in the entire world.

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#163

Post by MentalM »

aaroninsf wrote: post #77
mlsu wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you actually believe that your invention will lead to the extinction of humanity, you would be acting very very differently. Namely, you would not be inventing the thing that you think is going to kill all of humanity, and probably you would be doing everything in your power to prevent it from being invented, up to and including sabotage of the company that YOU work for, which is currently trying to invent that th…

This is not an argument, it's an unfounded claim based on a straw argument. The threat is distributed; the problem is systemic. Social herd behavior is very real, and it's a probability space, not a certainty. Similar case: climate change is without any question causing millions of deaths per year and may well kill billions, not to mention destroying ecosystems, and how may people do you know who have given up eating…

> Similar case: climate change is without any question causing millions of deaths per year

It is WERY questionable statement.

> and how may people do you know who have given up eating beef or flying

That is exactly because absolute majority of people do not think climate change to be that big of a problem

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#164

Post by carodgers »

pixl97 wrote: post #141
carodgers wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"And an LLM can easily, today, just rebuild a chess engine and beat whatever they need to beat." Always claims and promises about what they "can" do. This pattern is constant across AI hype. No one can prove that an LLM will forever fail to solve problem X, so the claim goes uncontested, and humans are biased to believe unrebutted claims. I reject this fallacious line of reasoning. I will instead require evidence of…

Then why do you care so much to repeatedly post in this thread? If they are no danger and will never do anything, just let them get banned, or don't. If you are correct (which you are not) then they won't affect your world in any way.

I am an American taxpayer. The money to pay the regulators that Dario wants to permanently hire will come out of my paycheck and will take from me time I could spend interacting with family, traveling, or pursuing hobbies. Dario and others demanding this can get bent.

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#165

Post by LogicFailsMe »

palmotea wrote: post #59
LogicFailsMe wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explain a path from today to the extermination of humanity in 2028 by the ASI and von Neumann replicators heading to the stars in the early 2030s without resorting to magical thinking or underpants gnomes level business plans. Engineering details are what matters here, not wishy washy things you once saw on Star Trek or The Outer Limits. Go.

> Explain a path from today to the extermination of humanity in 2028 by the ASI and von Neumann replicators heading to the stars in the early 2030s without resorting to magical thinking or underpants gnomes level business plans. Engineering details are what matters here, not wishy washy things you once saw on Star Trek or The Outer Limits. Go. Why? Those aren't the things I'm actually worried about, and those aren't…

And China will slow down too? Because China becoming economically dominant will cause everything you fear. While I think that might already be inevitable, I see no benefit whatsoever to regulating AI research. Deployments, sure, and start with Meta, Google, Palantir, Flock, and all the credit agencies and see how it goes. I'm sure I missed some, but I see no societal value in building the Torment Panopticon.

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#166

Post by hollerith »

ahf8Aithaex7Nai wrote: post #127
Gregkion wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2. Astra just came out and Fable 5/5.1 too. These are SIGNIFICANT better in plenty of tasks than Opus in November. Try it out. Ask Opus 4.8 to do anything in 3d. Do the same with Fable or Astra. Just because you list up some type of random technology, doesn't make it an good argument. Metaverse, Hyperloop and the crypto stuff was clearly garbage from the beginning. Easy to dismiss because all of it had massive faults…

> Just because you list up some type of random technology, doesn't make it an good argument. In what way is this random? It's a chronology of the bullshit from the past few years. Also: easy to say in hindsight. The hype was there, and many people believed it. The press, in particular, just lapped up the claims the way a Labrador Retriever gobbles up whatever you put in front of it. > We have opened up a potential pa…

Just to focus on one part of your comment: does a program that can reliably beat you or I or Magnus Carlsen at chess have an intention to win chess games?

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#167

Post by mirelahmd »

hollerith wrote: post #166
ahf8Aithaex7Nai wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just because you list up some type of random technology, doesn't make it an good argument. In what way is this random? It's a chronology of the bullshit from the past few years. Also: easy to say in hindsight. The hype was there, and many people believed it. The press, in particular, just lapped up the claims the way a Labrador Retriever gobbles up whatever you put in front of it. > We have opened up a potential pa…

Just to focus on one part of your comment: does a program that can reliably beat you or I or Magnus Carlsen at chess have an intention to win chess games?

its optimizing the best moves that increases win prob thats it

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#168

Post by jackb4040 »

reaperducer wrote: post #159
jackb4040 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I was kind of leaning toward thinking all the talk of doom was a bunch of self-serving regulatory-capture hype" "Just because they see different threats from AI doesn't mean that AI isn't a threat" Why would you make it so blatantly obvious you're acting in bad faith? Do you think the people who post here are stupid?

I really have no idea what you're talking about. With that level of snap hostility toward strangers online, maybe talk to your doctor about upping your meds.

You made a literally fake post and all replies to it are pointing that out. You haven't made a substantive reply to either.

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#169

Post by Gregkion »

carodgers wrote: post #120
Gregkion wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't really matter if it will be an LLM or Lecuns world model. Lecuns world model, if its the right architecture, will be retrained by google, anthropic and co with the massive amount of compute they have and the massive amount of data. Also i'm pretty sure Lecun didn't get his money from thin air so big companies are invested in this one way or the other. And an LLM can easily, today, just rebuild a chess engi…

"And an LLM can easily, today, just rebuild a chess engine and beat whatever they need to beat." Always claims and promises about what they "can" do. This pattern is constant across AI hype. No one can prove that an LLM will forever fail to solve problem X, so the claim goes uncontested, and humans are biased to believe unrebutted claims. I reject this fallacious line of reasoning. I will instead require evidence of…

An LLM converted a random game for me into rust.

I have watched YouTube Videos of trusted people and in them the LLM reads a paper and implements the simulation result of the paper.

Yesterday a LLM deciphyered an old text.

LLMs helped to solve a millenium problem.

Give an LLM access to proper compute and it will beat most people on the planet. Do you really think if you would get unlimited tokens and a compute cluster that something like a fable or astra frontiermodel setup couldn't build a better chess engine?

When do you draw the line of LLM is just some stupid thing vs. AI/AGI?

Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype

#170

Post by thenthenthen »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #165
palmotea wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Explain a path from today to the extermination of humanity in 2028 by the ASI and von Neumann replicators heading to the stars in the early 2030s without resorting to magical thinking or underpants gnomes level business plans. Engineering details are what matters here, not wishy washy things you once saw on Star Trek or The Outer Limits. Go. Why? Those aren't the things I'm actually worried about, and those aren't…

And China will slow down too? Because China becoming economically dominant will cause everything you fear. While I think that might already be inevitable, I see no benefit whatsoever to regulating AI research. Deployments, sure, and start with Meta, Google, Palantir, Flock, and all the credit agencies and see how it goes. I'm sure I missed some, but I see no societal value in building the Torment Panopticon.

I feel they will…. The economy is so shit, the robots mentioned a few posts up, are largely performative, just like AI. Its just about money. Everything is AI enabled now, from scales at the supermarkets to vending machines, but its 90% people behind a camera in a cheap remote location. In the past three years my salary halved every year. There are no jobs. Just speculation. This thing is gonna crash harder than the housing market.

Tangent: what happened to these staffless supermarkets of 10 years ago? I have never seen them again after .. covid.. weird!

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