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For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
21–30 of 177 posts
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> real-time weight modifications You mean training? Yeah we call that training an LLM in my backyard...
You don’t know the difference between train and test time? I asked for somebody from a lab.
At least they clarified they are in a yard rather than a lab.
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#23All of the main characters here (Dario, Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis, Elon Musk) have been saying this for over ten years now, since before OpenAI or Anthropic even existed
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#24The timing of the AI doom narrative could not come as a more suspect time. Chinese labs are releasing open models that are nipping at the heals of the frontier models. Anthropic and OpenAI know these frontier class open weight models can threaten their valuations by changing inference to a commodity where the provider who can serve the best models the cheapest and fastest will win. Few are going to pay $50/million tokens when they could pay <$1/million tokens for similar outcomes. There's little hope investors could recoup the wild investments made into Anthropic and OpenAI, IMO.
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#25What I don't really understand with these posts is that they don't at any point contend with the "doomers" argument. Like people get so caught in people acting hypocritical/ having mixed incentives/ or just in many cases personally disliking West Coast billionaire types and the kind of employees they hire. All of which seems fair to point out.
But like the core argument - AI is getting better at core research tasks (coding, math, statistics, science), this feedback loop could lead towards greatly accelerated AI progress of which there is already some clear evidence, if this continues AI will be far more powerful than humans and we might lose control or have other bad consequences - is basically not even engaged with.
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#26Such a load of baloney. I don’t care what kind of controls you put in place, if ASI is ever achieved how do you think it will respond to being caged? The only option I can conceive of is to embrace it and hope it turns out to either be out of reach or benevolent towards its own creators. There is no putting the cork back in at this point.
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#27I thought that too for a long time, but after the Hugging Face attack and given the proximity to Anthropic IPO, if this was hype then they are morons. This is guaranteed to cause massive backlash.
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#28Can anyone from a lab anonymously confirm they have or are insanely close to real-time weight modifications and still using the same architecture every other lab is using (transformers)?
If it helps, this person from OpenAI explains at least something:
"I realize that no one has properly explained yet what all the lab employees have seen that scared them so suddenly."
https://x.com/MajmudarAdam/status/2098881885200081234
The explanation is basically they have other dimensions (not just pretraining and inference compute) that scale, and they've got fairly convincing scaling laws. And they know they can scale it.
So they are very confident they can get more capabilities easily, faster than before.
I'd add - presumably, they'll use that LLM to do real-time weight modifications, if those aren't already one of the new scaling laws...
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#29the short answer is what we are going to do about "AI" is exactly what we did about global warming absolutely nothing and just let it happen, the wealthy will be fine just don't look up they are even using the EXACT same excuses as global warming "well even if we do, China won't, so why bother"
Say heyooo to a 3°C El Niño...
Re: For AI leaders Doom is a form of hype
#30The timing of the AI doom narrative could not come as a more suspect time. Chinese labs are releasing open models that are nipping at the heals of the frontier models. Anthropic and OpenAI know these frontier class open weight models can threaten their valuations by changing inference to a commodity where the provider who can serve the best models the cheapest and fastest will win. Few are going to pay $50/million to…
> The timing of the AI doom narrative could not come as a more suspect time....There's little hope investors could recoup the wild investments made into Anthropic and OpenAI
Personally, I think we should take the doom narratives very seriously, and act on them, but make sure those actions are not in the interests of Anthropic and OpenAI investors.