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Who Aligns the Aligners?

prestonbyrne.com

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Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#11

Post by BariumBlue »

watwut wrote: post #2

> History does provide a great deal of guidance, however, about the use and misuse of government power. It tells us that the state is in fact likely the worst possible custodian for the most powerful publication and data analysis technologies. Like, no. The worst custodian is someone like Thiel or Musk or Altman. > In foreign countries, particularly the United Kingdom and Europe, where national governments have fewer…

The US governmental system does have it's issues (first past the post and it's effects being the most glaring), but isn't it the longest continuous democracy alive right now?

> They are also less likely to start random wars EU lack of aggression, to defend themselves physically, economically, or otherwise, has been criticized constantly - slow and late to react to the Russian invasion, slow and late to react to new technologies like AI, electric cars.

Thy're not immune to deadlock either - sometimes going months or even a year or two to form a valid governing coalition.

The grass definitely looks greener though, especially if you've been in one pasture a long time.

Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#12

Post by BirAdam »

This isn't a new question: quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

In general, the way things work in the USA is that megacorporations write the regulatory frameworks for their own industries. These regulations are typically burdensome enough to be shouldered by the megacorporations while crushing the smaller players in the given market(s). The AI companies are now advocating for this very arrangement. They will likely get they want, and with that they will gain legal shielding for bad behavior just like Dupont, Monsanto, and so many others.

Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#13

Post by Avicebron »

Ah yes, another way for EA people to gain financially and socially. These "embedded auditors" will be universally friends and family. Even if they staffed a government department for it, it will just be a revolving door of insiders.

Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#14

Post by JoshTriplett »

kypro wrote: post #8

> Eliezer Yudkowsky confidently asserting today that if we do not institute immediate global techno-communism, instituting draconian government control over speech and publication of a type never before seen in any Western society, we are all going to die Nice straw man... > There is no evidence that this will happen. No, non at all... Presumably if there was a risk we'd be seeing the majority of researchers at AI la…

Exactly. Without the confident incorrect assertion "There is no evidence that this will happen", the whole rest of the post is invalid.

Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#15

Post by biophysboy »

> As my regular readers will be aware, I have been engaged, on behalf of my clients, in legal combat with Internet censors around the world, agencies who think that they have both the standing, the competence, and the right to tell American companies what software they can write and run, for the better part of 18 months.

Is this supposed to make me trust their opinions on tech regulation?

Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#17

Post by Kenji »

kypro wrote: post #8

> Eliezer Yudkowsky confidently asserting today that if we do not institute immediate global techno-communism, instituting draconian government control over speech and publication of a type never before seen in any Western society, we are all going to die Nice straw man... > There is no evidence that this will happen. No, non at all... Presumably if there was a risk we'd be seeing the majority of researchers at AI la…

`p(doom)` is ridiculous nonsense. How do people even come up with those numbers? Some people just say "I think it's 20% that AI will wipe us out" but how did they arrive at this number? Yeah they just made it up out of thin air, that's right. Complete fabrication without any evidence to back up such a probability. It's not like an asteroid whose trajectory you measure and you have certain instrument tolerances and measurement inaccuracies, hence the laws of physics tell you that your prediction has a 20% accuracy. No, it's all just made up bullshit. Just like all the AI safety guys: They're professional bullshitters and have been all along. Doesn't mean they're wrong per se, but it means that if they're right, they're right because they guessed right.

Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#18

Post by jazzypants »

recroad wrote: post #4

What's up with this split or democratic vs non-democratic countries? It doesn't even add-up because you can easily make a case that China is a democratic country with a far better system of governance and ability to control this problem than "Western" governments. Highly suggest this quick read on the different types of democracy in our glorious world[1]. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/2193933.The_Real_Wo…

China is not a democratic country. Words have meaning. The US has a checkered past and is quickly moving away from democracy, so we don't have much of a leg to stand on, but it's integral that we do not lose track of what that word means in the years ahead.

Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#19

Post by dist-epoch »

kypro wrote: post #8

> Eliezer Yudkowsky confidently asserting today that if we do not institute immediate global techno-communism, instituting draconian government control over speech and publication of a type never before seen in any Western society, we are all going to die Nice straw man... > There is no evidence that this will happen. No, non at all... Presumably if there was a risk we'd be seeing the majority of researchers at AI la…

1 year from now: Just 100 mil people died in this AI caused incident. Why are you scaremongering about the apocalypse? There is no evidence to support that. It was the fault of OpenAI for being negligent with the sandboxes. AI is not dangerous if properly used.

Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?

#20

Post by BirAdam »

dist-epoch wrote: post #3

> Nobody knows the answer and history is no guide, save that apocalyptic predictions about new technologies have, to date, all been wrong. By definition, apocalyptic predictions will always be wrong, until they are right exactly once. Also know as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey_illusion To date, all apocalyptic predictions about nuclear war and nuclear winter have all been wrong too.

This is quite illustrative. Warnings of a nuclear apocalypse were extremely widespread, known, and feared. The consequences were, indeed, so well known that the world was saved from the worst possible outcomes in the past by regular enlisted men and women who realized that not all instrument readings should be trusted due to the potential cost of acting on such readings alone. Given the Turkey Illusion, we would be wrong to trust the status quo in either the nuclear scenario or the AI scenario.
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