Who Aligns the Aligners?
prestonbyrne.com
Who Aligns the Aligners?
1–10 of 104 posts
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#2> History does provide a great deal of guidance, however, about the use and misuse of government power. It tells us that the state is in fact likely the worst possible custodian for the most powerful publication and data analysis technologies.
Like, no. The worst custodian is someone like Thiel or Musk or Altman.
> In foreign countries, particularly the United Kingdom and Europe, where national governments have fewer constitutional guardrails on their power
Somehow their democracies hold longer and better then American one. For example, you don't get murders that get defended by top ranks, at least yet. They are also less likely to start random wars - that is structural it is not like those countries dont have government players who would like them too.
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#3> Nobody knows the answer and history is no guide, save that apocalyptic predictions about new technologies have, to date, all been wrong.
By definition, apocalyptic predictions will always be wrong, until they are right exactly once.
Also know as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey_illusion
To date, all apocalyptic predictions about nuclear war and nuclear winter have all been wrong too.
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#4What's up with this split or democratic vs non-democratic countries? It doesn't even add-up because you can easily make a case that China is a democratic country with a far better system of governance and ability to control this problem than "Western" governments. Highly suggest this quick read on the different types of democracy in our glorious world[1].
[1] https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/2193933.The_Real_Worl...
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#5> Nobody knows the answer and history is no guide, save that apocalyptic predictions about new technologies have, to date, all been wrong.
If any past apocalyptic prediction had been true, you would not have been around to write this sentence and we would not have been around to read it. It’s not a very convincing argument when we cannot in principle observe the counterfactual.
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#6> Nobody knows the answer and history is no guide, save that apocalyptic predictions about new technologies have, to date, all been wrong.
While history doesn't show us apocalypses from new technology, it does show us cases of increased human suffering.
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#7Not sure it needs to be about publications and data analysis technology as such to regulate AI development, for example - could be about processes, procedures, people, etc., no?
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#8> Eliezer Yudkowsky confidently asserting today that if we do not institute immediate global techno-communism, instituting draconian government control over speech and publication of a type never before seen in any Western society, we are all going to die
Nice straw man...
> There is no evidence that this will happen.
No, non at all... Presumably if there was a risk we'd be seeing the majority of researchers at AI labs having a p(doom) somewhere within the range of 10-90%. We be seeing AI swarms showing misaligned behaviours already and trying to hack out of their sandboxes. We'd see AIs that are able to demonstrate capabilities in fields like Maths and Computer Science that exceed most experts.
Are we seeing this?
Ah crap, wait... I guess there is some evidence when I think about it. And I suppose even if there is just a low percentage that we literally all die we should probably be taking that prety seriously and not just leaving our fate in the hands of a handful of US billionaires?
Actually, fuck it, I agree with OP. If people can ignore the consensus on climate change because it suites them, might as well ignore the consensus expert opinion on AI x-risk too. Yeah, there's no evidence. Yudkowsky needs stop yapping and let the billionaires get on with building ASI.
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#9Peter Thiel
Re: Who Aligns the Aligners?
#10> Nobody knows the answer and history is no guide, save that apocalyptic predictions about new technologies have, to date, all been wrong. If any past apocalyptic prediction had been true, you would not have been around to write this sentence and we would not have been around to read it. It’s not a very convincing argument when we cannot in principle observe the counterfactual.
Plus, plenty of negative predictions turned out to be entirely true. And then it took a lot of time and effort to counteract them.
It is not like history was composed of happiness and roses only. Some of the really really bad stuff happened within last 100 years and a lot of that bad stuff was enabled and made possible by technology.