451–459 of 459 posts
I really don't know what will happen with AI. It's honestly a bit frightening because the question I used to ponder just for fun as a kid 'What if AI revolts?'feels like it might not be that far off. It feels like ChatGPT came out just a few years ago, but seeing how far it has come already makes it impossible to predict what AI will be like in the future. I just hope humanity manages to navigate this well.
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Joe Benton left Anthropic a day before Dario's post, to work for METR evaluations. He was with Anthropic for over a year. He did the same thing that Jacob did (big song and dance about AI apocalypse, media interviews all over the place). He managed the Scalable Oversight team at Anthropic and was the research lead for the Anthropic Fellows Program. So he has equity, and likely lots of it. Then you have Josh Engels qu…
> Good Ventures is a funding partner of Open Philanthropy, who funded Jacob Coxon (the first of the Anthropic employees going viral in the media) via a scholarship. This conspiracy theory is truly crazy. A $20K scholarship in 2022 is supposed to explain Coxon walking away from unvested equity for a company worth over $950 billion dollars?
I don't think Coxon was ever planning on or entitled to taking equity, I think this was the plan from the beginning and why he was hired for 6 weeks to begin with.
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Joe Benton left Anthropic a day before Dario's post, to work for METR evaluations. He was with Anthropic for over a year. He did the same thing that Jacob did (big song and dance about AI apocalypse, media interviews all over the place). He managed the Scalable Oversight team at Anthropic and was the research lead for the Anthropic Fellows Program. So he has equity, and likely lots of it. Then you have Josh Engels qu…
> Good Ventures is a funding partner of Open Philanthropy, who funded Jacob Coxon (the first of the Anthropic employees going viral in the media) via a scholarship. This conspiracy theory is truly crazy. A $20K scholarship in 2022 is supposed to explain Coxon walking away from unvested equity for a company worth over $950 billion dollars?
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* Frontier models need infinite high quality private IP to keep them fed. Forcing an IP theft funnel ensures big lab survival and model intelligence growth. * Open-weight models are 1month behind frontier models. Cheaper, faster, private (no IP theft), steerable (you can security harden your own software without safeguard triggers). No sane business would keep using these API services if they didn't have to. The labs…
I know people at METR and Anthropic. When they tell you they're worried the tech they're working on may kill everyone despite their best efforts, perhaps believe them.
The parsimonious capture is regulatory capture, because $$$ going to run out, companies already spent their warchest, and investors on increasingly leveraged funding at current macro environment simply not going to find enough funding to keep wheel going. Bubble pops, hardware demand drops, prices regress towards mean, and new entrant will enter market with MASSIVELY better compute/$ and cleaner balance sheet to comp…
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Anthropic specifically is basically saying that they believe it's even more dangerous if someone else gets to AGI before they do, so they have to either stop everyone or not stop themselves. I personally disagree with that take - and, as you note, it's hard to take seriously ethical wrangles from a company that literally sued the government in court to allow their models to be used by Palantir of all people. But if o…
> Anthropic specifically is basically saying that they believe it's even more dangerous if someone else gets to AGI before they do, so they have to either stop everyone or not stop themselves. That’s how people rationalize being a fentanyl dealer and selling a drug that can kill people, “Someone else will just sell them the drugs, might as well be me.”
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Well, that's almost a tautology. People claim Y2K or ozone was a panic and that nothing happened. But nothing happened exactly because the force behind the panic also fixed the issues.
What about the panic around dungeons and dragons and violent video games? Did nothing happen because the panic fixed the issue?
Exactly.
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Eh. If I was rank ordering, I's put: worst [AM, {very large gap …}, al Qaeda, …, USG today, …, China, …, USG under Obama, {very large gap …}, The Culture] best.
As an Idiran sympathiser, I disagree with your ranking. The Culture are now pets of the Minds.
Prediction: in a few years, we will laugh at this hysteria and call it a moral panic.