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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#391

Post by lukewarm707 »

user43928 wrote: post #345
lukewarm707 wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

open models are ahead in speed. they complete tasks as fast as you choose to scale compute. they are more efficient and require less compute for the same thing. they are ahead in specialized tasks. they are ahead in areas closed models refuse to answer. they are ahead in emotional intelligence.

I doubt most of your claims. Maybe the guardrails and emotional intelligence is true. For speed and efficiency, you are most likely wrong. Speed is led by GPT-5.6 Sol on Cerebras Ultrafast at 750 t/s. Afaik you cannot serve a single DeepSeek Flash 4.1 stream at 750 t/s, plus the model is less intelligent as seen on newer benchmarks. I believe OpenAI and Anhropic are at the frontier of efficiency too. There were numer…

i can provide some sources.

5.6 sol ultrafast on cerebras is 750tps, open models readily exceed this. just by using a smaller model cerebras serves qwen 3.8 27b at 1850tps. or even larger models, mimo 2.5 pro was served for a while at 1000tps. and so on. [https://inference-docs.cerebras.ai/models/choose-a-model]

the chinese ai companies have 10% of the total compute resources of the US ones. since the USA tries to stop them from buying nvidia gpus. they maxed out the efficiency.

deepseek v4.1 has engram architecture. it has 550b params instead of 5T+ for astra/fable. it has 8b active instead of potentially hundreds active for astra/fable.

compare input/output/cache: $0.15/$0.60/$0.003 for v4.1 to $10.00/$50.00/$1.00 for astra and $10.00/$50.00/$0.25 for fable.

astra cache reads are over 330 times more expensive.

at the artificial analysis 7:2:1 ratio, deepseek is $0.18/m, fable is $7.18/m, astra is $7.7/m.

but what about intelligence? AA would rate deepseek v4.1 at AA 40, astra is AA 53.

so it cost 4,180% more for 32% more intelligence.

they are serving that at over 250tps at baseten. to get close to that on astra API you are paying double the cost for fast mode.

so it is now 8456% more expensive for a similar speed and 32% more intelligence. 84 times more expensive.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#392

Post by hgoel »

folkrav wrote: post #390
azan_ wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m really glad us achieved nuclear weapon before nazi germany.

Then the USSR got it anyway and we're in a perpetual state of Mutually Assured Destruction.

A perpetual state of mutually assured destruction is much better for the world than only the US possessing the bomb.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#393

Post by PoignardAzur »

The HN discourse on AI is so exhausting. It's all knee-jerk and headlines only. Just people rushing to push their own beliefs and pre-emptively insulting anybody who disagrees.

People here are so desperate for the AI race to continue forever, for anything that pisses off the billionaires that got us there even if that means innocent people go down with them because the next AI decides to blackmail a hospital to cheat on its evaluation or whatever.

You people are so dismissive, no, so angry at the idea that this technology could be dangerous that you're all gloating about how hard China is going to crush the West with its ever more powerful open models, as if having easily-accessed tech to coordinate high-volume hacking campaigns was a load-bearing part of the economy.

I feel like I'm reading people gloating about how much fuel their car burns just because they love coastal elites' tears or something.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#394

Post by hgoel »

AngryData wrote: post #150
amazingman wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is pure fantasy.

Why? There are numerous technologies we have ignored or abandoned for numerous reasons. Many of the benefits of AI is "requires less humans", but in an age where we question what work people could possibly do in the future, human labor isn't that hard to find. If the amish can do what they do for whack religious reasons, people could manage it with ai for cultural and social reasons. And I never saw an amish person s…

I'm baffled that people expressing your opinion don't understand what they're advocating for. Current generation smartphones are able to run AI models, people have managed to run very large models (even if slowly) via streaming from disk. The math for the underlying implementation is relatively trivial.

Abandoning this technology means a cult-like extremist shift in culture against computers, or a global surveillance state of unprecedented scale and invasiveness. Not even getting into how much it requires us to give up on science, given the shared computational needs.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#395

Post by tancop »

vrganj wrote: post #249
Animats wrote: post #94

Whatever happened to Musk's plan for data centers in orbit? That seemed silly at the time. It offers a way to get out from under restrictions imposed by national governments, which might make it worthwhile.

A data center in space still has to get its data up and down from earth somehow. That part will still be subject to government control, so I don't think this would get him anything.

Receiving signals is impossible to control. That is why every spy agency set up number stations in the Cold War. All you need is a radio hooked up to a computer and it gives off zero signal of its own so no one can trace it.

Sending is a bit more problematic but you can build a ground station anywhere in the satellites coverage area, so if you get shut down in one place you can move to the next where officials are easier to bribe.

The real problems are transfer speed, reliability (both transfer and compute) and cooling. All of them are much harder than avoiding governments.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#396

Post by braingravy »

nullbio wrote: post #39

These people are so fucking exhausting. And then Dario wants to recommend METR as the "independent evaluator" while he stacks their org full of ex-Anthropic (aka, secretly still on the Anthropic payroll with huge equity) employees. "We'll give them a desk, an office, a work laptop, ..." Fucking make it less obvious. I kind of hope the govt steps in at this point and says "Anthropic, you wanted regulation? We've creat…

Yep, they are setting themselves up for that. He’s already shown he doesn’t understand how to play DC politics. Maybe he’ll learn, but he and Sam have played this so poorly (and greedily) that public sentiment is clearly soiled on AI at this point.

I could see how standing up an independent body could be an easy win in the public eye, it’s becoming low hanging fruit, socially.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#398

Post by rescbr »

user43928 wrote: post #343
cgio wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For practical uses they are there. Arguably the frontier models are worse for some of these practical tasks. And keep in mind, people will use maybe frontier for 1/10th of the work, planning and review, and go open source for rest. The question is if they manage to impose outside us. If not, they are losing competitiveness.

I always thought switching from a SOTA model to a dumber model after planning was a terrible idea. Mostly I heard this from people who I got the impression have little experience in developing greenfield software with agentic AI. Often the same people who talk about spec frameworks. I fundamentally disagree with the approach. I believe the ability to autonomously evaluate, test, and adjust during long horizon tasks i…

Well, it's the enterprise software house pipeline... The software architect writes the spec, hands it down to the implementation team, senior leads, junior devs or offshore teams codes it.

I also disagree with the approach, this is cargo-culting the existing ways of working.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#399

Post by swat535 »

coderintherye wrote: post #8

I have to wonder if some us are just much more inured to salespeople and thus also to "AI Safety" propaganda. I've yet to have a logical discussion with anyone who thinks the "AI Safety" people should be in charge and I think they just truly don't that what most them actually want is to be the one holding the keys to power.

Which scenario is more likely:

The billionaire elite CEOs have suddenly had an epiphany and are now trying to save humanity from AI?

or that they've realized they can't compete with China ?

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#400

Post by ben_w »

koverstreet wrote: post #375
ben_w wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know people at METR and Anthropic. When they tell you they're worried the tech they're working on may kill everyone despite their best efforts, perhaps believe them.

"Trust us, really!" HAH

Rather the opposite.
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