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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#381

Post by anon373839 »

int_19h wrote: post #280
anon373839 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is costly, especially right now. I don’t think you can make a case for it on cost savings! The throughput in a single stream is about 50 tokens/sec (a bit less for prose, a bit more for code due to speculative draft acceptance rates) and about 2,000 tokens/sec for prefill. Both numbers are flat and stable as context accumulates. That’s what finally tilted me away from the Mac Studio despite its much superior memor…

I don't think you can ever make a case for it on cost savings in general. Inference is very obviously the kind of problem where things are cheaper at scale, and this is still true for smaller models. The only reason to run locally is privacy.

Privacy is a great reason, but independence is another. It’s very nice knowing that you’re going to get the same reliable product every time you call the model. Nothing is going to change unless you decide to change it.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#383

Post by ianm218 »

Oarch wrote: post #339
olalonde wrote: post #181

Prediction: in a few years, we will laugh at this hysteria and call it a moral panic.

GPT-2 was called "too dangerous to release".

Is there a sense where they were right because GPT-2 directly led to the current situation where you can atleast objectively say that reasonable people are pretty worried about existential risks of AI.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#384

Post by xg15 »

howunfortunate wrote: post #54
jordanb wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK understood. But you understand this makes them sound like the type of person who doesn't believe any of the "worldly concerns" are worth addressing because "the end is near" right?

There's no logical error here if the end is actually near. So it all hinges on an empirical disagreement you have with them. There's nothing particularly unserious about that.

Which is what "the end is near" type of persons have always argued...

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#385

Post by dakolli »

Bluestein wrote: post #377

Where is Sutskever in all this?

He basically did the equivalent of a scientist moving to Nazi Germany in 1942 to help the Nazis research the atomic bomb.

He lectured us all on safety, then he went off, by choice, to create a "super intelligence" in the modern day Nazi Germany, to help said Nazis become even more advanced while they're actively committing crimes unimaginable (that they film, brag about and broadcast the world, so he's obviously aware not concerned with safety in any way (except for the safety of Nazis).

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#386

Post by onraglanroad »

ben_w wrote: post #319
int_19h wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly? I'd rather al Qaeda have access to something like Fable, than the US government. The US government has capacity to do immensely more damage.

Eh. If I was rank ordering, I's put: worst [AM, {very large gap …}, al Qaeda, …, USG today, …, China, …, USG under Obama, {very large gap …}, The Culture] best.

As an Idiran sympathiser, I disagree with your ranking. The Culture are now pets of the Minds.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#387

Post by gajjanag »

user43928 wrote: post #345
lukewarm707 wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

open models are ahead in speed. they complete tasks as fast as you choose to scale compute. they are more efficient and require less compute for the same thing. they are ahead in specialized tasks. they are ahead in areas closed models refuse to answer. they are ahead in emotional intelligence.

I doubt most of your claims. Maybe the guardrails and emotional intelligence is true. For speed and efficiency, you are most likely wrong. Speed is led by GPT-5.6 Sol on Cerebras Ultrafast at 750 t/s. Afaik you cannot serve a single DeepSeek Flash 4.1 stream at 750 t/s, plus the model is less intelligent as seen on newer benchmarks. I believe OpenAI and Anhropic are at the frontier of efficiency too. There were numer…

> The idea that open-weight models are more efficient seems unfounded.

https://artificialanalysis.ai/ intelligence vs cost per task disagrees with this statement.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#388

Post by [deleted] »

howunfortunate wrote: post #54
jordanb wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK understood. But you understand this makes them sound like the type of person who doesn't believe any of the "worldly concerns" are worth addressing because "the end is near" right?

There's no logical error here if the end is actually near. So it all hinges on an empirical disagreement you have with them. There's nothing particularly unserious about that.

[deleted]

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#389

Post by folkrav »

int_19h wrote: post #268
calgoo wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or you know, stop working on it if its that dangerous? This whole thing of a bunch of employees saying that they are scared of building what they are building, but do it anyway because they are somehow going to make it different? Their model has been used in the planning of mass murdering in war as well as spying on the entire worlds population as well as helping ICE out in the US. They need to stop this BS fearmonge…

Anthropic specifically is basically saying that they believe it's even more dangerous if someone else gets to AGI before they do, so they have to either stop everyone or not stop themselves. I personally disagree with that take - and, as you note, it's hard to take seriously ethical wrangles from a company that literally sued the government in court to allow their models to be used by Palantir of all people. But if o…

That's the Cold War nuclear arms race argument, not even disguised. The actual situation we all ended up in is both sides eventually having it, leading to a perpetual state of Mutually Assured Destruction.

As you note, it may not be inconsistent with that they say they believe, but it's insanely inconsistent with what they actually are doing.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#390

Post by folkrav »

azan_ wrote: post #334
phoghed wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They allegedly believe the technology itself is a nuclear weapon tier threat or greater, so why does it matter which lab they are trying to achieve it at?

I’m really glad us achieved nuclear weapon before nazi germany.

Then the USSR got it anyway and we're in a perpetual state of Mutually Assured Destruction.
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