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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#311

Post by ben_w »

cyanydeez wrote: post #290
ben_w wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Supersonic passenger aircraft were operated profitably Were they? IIRC joint project by British and French national airlines, they expected to sell loads, hardly anyone wanted to buy the planes, the two airlines kept them flying out of government embarassment.

should probably spell it out: _it wasn't allowed to get to supersonic speed_. Same way we dont _allow_ eugenics.

Over the Atlantic? Nah, the problem was it was very expensive and not a great experience for the people rich enough to afford it.

The US company trying to bring supersonic back are not only focussed on the flight speed, but also the entire customer experience.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#312

Post by XRG »

ben_w wrote: post #309
Tanjreeve wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think they’re exaggerating (again) or do you think they should taken at face value and treated as hostile actors?

There's plenty of people who think greenhouse gas/global warming campaigns against fossil fuels are "exaggerating", that "earth was warm/the climate changed in the past", that a fee degrees isn't bad, that CO2 is good for plants. Are you likeminded? In this case, it's as if the oil and coal companies all said in the 60s and 70s "oh no, this research we did, it's all really bad; we need help to figure out how to trans…

Here’s one crucial difference: there’s overwhelming evidence that human emissions have an effect on our climate. The mechanisms are generally well-understood and the research is widely disseminated and easily available to anyone that’s interested.

With the ‘dangers’ touted by these insiders, it’s all “trust me bro”, hyperbole, and very little hard evidence. As such, a skeptical mind would question their motives.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#314

Post by schubidubiduba »

ben_w wrote: post #216
nullbio wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* Frontier models need infinite high quality private IP to keep them fed. Forcing an IP theft funnel ensures big lab survival and model intelligence growth. * Open-weight models are 1month behind frontier models. Cheaper, faster, private (no IP theft), steerable (you can security harden your own software without safeguard triggers). No sane business would keep using these API services if they didn't have to. The labs…

I know people at METR and Anthropic. When they tell you they're worried the tech they're working on may kill everyone despite their best efforts, perhaps believe them.

I'm sure the employees are (rightfully) worried. However, that does not at all preclude hidden motivations of the CEO behind acquiescing such worries.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#315

Post by andyhedges »

phendrenad2 wrote: post #307
olalonde wrote: post #181

Prediction: in a few years, we will laugh at this hysteria and call it a moral panic.

Prediction: Much like Y2K people will think we were all incredibly backwards and uneducated because we thought a bunch of potato computers were going to break the world.

With Y2K we fixed the issue, if a bunch of work hadn't had gone into that then there would have been wide scale impact. Critical systems were fixed hence no disaster, it wasn't people fussing about nothing.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#316

Post by ben_w »

watwut wrote: post #292
necovek wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree an argument can be made that not all the worst outcomes include restricting public access, but focusing on niche extremist groups (who might also get access to it through government programs by some of them being government employeed) is not a good argument to protect the public. Governments having unbalanced power can more easily lead to authoritarianism, and thus risk to the public.

At this point, I worry a lot more of billionaires Musk, Altman, Thiel etc then of goverments in general. Thrir project is to get all power and if they succeed, it will be way worst then what we have seen so far.

There's plenty of things to worry about, and plenty of people to do the worrying.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#317

Post by ben_w »

wartywhoa23 wrote: post #293
ben_w wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current state of alignment is that we don't know how to make it only as bad as Pol Pot was made by his parents, teachers, genetics, circumstances, etc. This remains true regardless of if it is or isn't kept away from the public. "Helpful, harness, and honest": when used by a bastard, even just helpful and harmless are in direct conflict with each other. you may hate the government, but what about every radical gr…

> what about every radical group of extremists that wants to take over your government? Radical groups of extremists created by that very government, you mean?

Not only but also.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#318

Post by bawana »

hn_submit wrote: post #151

This is exactly the reason Anthropic's call to slow down A.I. development will fail. Shareholders will be loath to accept that the company loses its lead and a commensurate sharp decline in the company's share price. Moreover, it could lead China to catch up and eventually proclaim that it has nosed ahead of the U.S. in the field. The U.S. Government won't allow that to happen.

I cant wait till China makes a mistake. In their 'cheaper, faster' model of industrial production and research. The next accident will happen there (like COVID from Wuhan)

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#319

Post by ben_w »

int_19h wrote: post #269
ben_w wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current state of alignment is that we don't know how to make it only as bad as Pol Pot was made by his parents, teachers, genetics, circumstances, etc. This remains true regardless of if it is or isn't kept away from the public. "Helpful, harness, and honest": when used by a bastard, even just helpful and harmless are in direct conflict with each other. you may hate the government, but what about every radical gr…

Honestly? I'd rather al Qaeda have access to something like Fable, than the US government. The US government has capacity to do immensely more damage.

Eh.

If I was rank ordering, I's put:

  worst [AM, {very large gap …}, al Qaeda, …, USG today, …, China, …, USG under Obama, {very large gap …}, The Culture] best.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#320

Post by nullbio »

Turn_Trout wrote: post #204
nullbio wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* Frontier models need infinite high quality private IP to keep them fed. Forcing an IP theft funnel ensures big lab survival and model intelligence growth. * Open-weight models are 1month behind frontier models. Cheaper, faster, private (no IP theft), steerable (you can security harden your own software without safeguard triggers). No sane business would keep using these API services if they didn't have to. The labs…

Dario's post [1] commits to direct evaluators that can, among other abilities, expose secret RSI. He wants that made law. Do you have a source on METR employees retaining massive equity stakes? [1] https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier

Joe Benton left Anthropic a day before Dario's post, to work for METR evaluations. He was with Anthropic for over a year. He did the same thing that Jacob did (big song and dance about AI apocalypse, media interviews all over the place). He managed the Scalable Oversight team at Anthropic and was the research lead for the Anthropic Fellows Program. So he has equity, and likely lots of it.

Then you have Josh Engels quitting DeepMind to work for METR the day before as well, doing the exact same thing. Again, doomer drama all over socials, interviews, and so on.

What good is an "unbiased third party evaluator" if it's full of ex-employees with equity in the companies they're evaluating? And the fact that he tries to frame it as such is all the evidence you need to know that Dario is a pathological liar and always will be.

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