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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#291

Post by 9dev »

benfortuna wrote: post #276
ozgung wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m pretty confident this has already happened. Public models are behind their internal models and just above Chinese models. Only thing closing the gap is Chinese models pushing. I’m not American. There is no way I use the same model as US Army for $20. When we have Sol they have Astra. When we have Astra they have Nova, Nebula, Galaxia…

At this point models are advancing way faster than we can figure out how to use them effectively. So having a generational advantage is not nearly as important as knowing how to use that advantage.

…and that probably requires involvement of the broader academic world (for now), IMHO. I don’t think governments or even the US military can really compete staff wise with the combined force of researchers and the tech industry worldwide right now. No matter how much money you can pour into it, there are a lot more bright minds out there that are not working for the military than otherwise.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#292

Post by watwut »

necovek wrote: post #197
ben_w wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current state of alignment is that we don't know how to make it only as bad as Pol Pot was made by his parents, teachers, genetics, circumstances, etc. This remains true regardless of if it is or isn't kept away from the public. "Helpful, harness, and honest": when used by a bastard, even just helpful and harmless are in direct conflict with each other. you may hate the government, but what about every radical gr…

I agree an argument can be made that not all the worst outcomes include restricting public access, but focusing on niche extremist groups (who might also get access to it through government programs by some of them being government employeed) is not a good argument to protect the public. Governments having unbalanced power can more easily lead to authoritarianism, and thus risk to the public.

At this point, I worry a lot more of billionaires Musk, Altman, Thiel etc then of goverments in general. Thrir project is to get all power and if they succeed, it will be way worst then what we have seen so far.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#293

Post by wartywhoa23 »

ben_w wrote: post #177
Buttons840 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the worst outcomes involve taking this technology away from the public.

The current state of alignment is that we don't know how to make it only as bad as Pol Pot was made by his parents, teachers, genetics, circumstances, etc. This remains true regardless of if it is or isn't kept away from the public. "Helpful, harness, and honest": when used by a bastard, even just helpful and harmless are in direct conflict with each other. you may hate the government, but what about every radical gr…

> what about every radical group of extremists that wants to take over your government?

Radical groups of extremists created by that very government, you mean?

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#294

Post by wartywhoa23 »

watwut wrote: post #292
necovek wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree an argument can be made that not all the worst outcomes include restricting public access, but focusing on niche extremist groups (who might also get access to it through government programs by some of them being government employeed) is not a good argument to protect the public. Governments having unbalanced power can more easily lead to authoritarianism, and thus risk to the public.

At this point, I worry a lot more of billionaires Musk, Altman, Thiel etc then of goverments in general. Thrir project is to get all power and if they succeed, it will be way worst then what we have seen so far.

False dichotomy.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#295

Post by amelius »

ozgung wrote: post #238
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

I’m pretty confident this has already happened. Public models are behind their internal models and just above Chinese models. Only thing closing the gap is Chinese models pushing. I’m not American. There is no way I use the same model as US Army for $20. When we have Sol they have Astra. When we have Astra they have Nova, Nebula, Galaxia…

> There is no way I use the same model as US Army for $20.

Don't underestimate market pressure. If there are no regulations, why would a company give the US Army access to a better product?

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#296

Post by wartywhoa23 »

ako wrote: post #271
teiferer wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The very best outcomes involve us intentionally and collectively turning our attention away from this technology. To expand on the "pure fantasy" sister comment: There is just no way this will happen. It's in the spirit of "we can just stop all wars" and "we can just end world hunger". Technically it's very easy to do. Socially it's impossible to do. Unless you ignore realities.

You forgot “we can stop climate change”…

Yep, and "we can flatten the curve", in a tone that brooks no objection.

But when it comes to trillions in AI money - nope, sorry, we can't, flimsy, feeble us.

It's all going per the agenda.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#297

Post by nromiun »

olalonde wrote: post #181

Prediction: in a few years, we will laugh at this hysteria and call it a moral panic.

I don't know how the general public can't see that AI companies are fueling this moral panic to attract more and more VC money to make their companies even more ridiculously valued. Every one of their public announcement is designed to create FOMO for investors.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#298

Post by oceansky »

amelius wrote: post #295
ozgung wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m pretty confident this has already happened. Public models are behind their internal models and just above Chinese models. Only thing closing the gap is Chinese models pushing. I’m not American. There is no way I use the same model as US Army for $20. When we have Sol they have Astra. When we have Astra they have Nova, Nebula, Galaxia…

> There is no way I use the same model as US Army for $20. Don't underestimate market pressure. If there are no regulations, why would a company give the US Army access to a better product?

They have hundreds billions dollars budgets.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#300

Post by aatd86 »

nullbio wrote: post #69
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

* Frontier models need infinite high quality private IP to keep them fed. Forcing an IP theft funnel ensures big lab survival and model intelligence growth. * Open-weight models are 1month behind frontier models. Cheaper, faster, private (no IP theft), steerable (you can security harden your own software without safeguard triggers). No sane business would keep using these API services if they didn't have to. The labs…

That is what the Palantir guy is warning against. People/business need to keep their IP instead of throwing it all into Claude and whatnot. Risk being the worst aspects of communism which I think he meant centralization of decision, asymmetric supply/demand for compute (they lock you in), and the tech overloard Anthropic/OpenAI/xAI being in competition with everyone;s business all of a sudden with much more data. An unfair advantage in markets made super competitive all of a sudden. A winner takes all attempt.

This is not sustainable anyway, the scale at which they want to control data flows. Time was money, now data is money and they are too greedy for it.

All this agitation is just a silly attempt at constraining competition. The danger is not the AI, it is having all your systems connected. Overreliance on networked tech.

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