Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

xeiaso.net

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 298 posts

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#281

Post by cyanydeez »

AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

hOW BOUT the more likely explanation: they're just wasting electrcity at this point and Qwen3.8 is the pinnacle of cost-efficiency-intelligence and they can of course add another trillion but a chinese model on consumerism hardware can already do 99%+ of the TAM.

I think ya'll stuck in the AGI/Singularity when its probable reality has caught up with the technology and the hype bubble can't sustain the sigmodality.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#282

Post by cirrhosis »

xena wrote: post #40
jan_m_savage wrote: post #37

I'm not sure I understand the point made by the author.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satire

The person you replied to understands that it is satire. No need to be condescending. You could have just posted the article that it seems to be satirising.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49672510

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#283

Post by int_19h »

whateveracct wrote: post #76
lukan wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about the level of irony here, but I keep hearing models have plateaued since a while now, but I keep being impressed with the latest model performance.

astra is more parlor tricks than real gains tbh i swear they trained in on threejs in particular so those idiots on twitter could spam their garbage demos

I strongly disagree. I'm working on a semantic model for Lojban, heavily AI assisted, using multiple models. I have basically all popular frontier models doing research and panel debates. Astra and Fable are both noticeably ahead of everything else including their previous iterations. When it comes to reviews, they can also find more issues in others (or even their own) code.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#284

Post by mdp2021 »

sm-silversight wrote: post #143
m4rtink wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some cases, such as space exploration I don't really care who does it but that it happens - sure, would be nice if my favorite power block did it but I will still celebrate it when someone else achives it. Can still be a powerful motivation, to make sure that next time, it yous your camp that scores the next milestone, like an orbital elevator or fox ears, for example.

Fox ears?

(I believe the poster meant: well past tattoos, the next superstep in the "body modification for self expression" subcultural era.)

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#285

Post by int_19h »

paulhebert wrote: post #134
arcanemachiner wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need human input. Any coherent input will do the trick. You can, for example, hook it up to a logging system and have it fix errors as they occur on your platform.

Have you tried this? How did it go? I’d be curious about: - your setup. How it all works - The types of errors it fixed and how quickly - Any regressions or issues it caused - The cost Thanks!

I have something like that running locally for my agentic harness (which includes cross-model messaging). There's a dedicated "product manager" session for it, and all other PMs are instructed to report issues with the harness as they occur to that session, while it is tasked to automatically prioritize and address them and coordinate fix deployment with other running sessions.

It works surprisingly well. The errors fixed are both genuine errors in the harness itself, but increasingly so upstream bugs (in the underlying agent apps like Codex, or in Herdr, which is used to expose uniform programmatic access to all those different apps) for which it needs to come up with workarounds. No regressions so far.

The cost is hard to judge on a subscription, especially when you're running really heavy tasks otherwise that dwarf any harness work.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#286

Post by mdp2021 »

rogerrogerr wrote: post #146
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

> The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis Genuine question - can they really do this? Obviously if I, a not-even-millionaire, get a national security gag order, I'm going to follow it because I assume they'll bury me under the jail otherwise. But the (b|tr)illionare class? I'd assume they have access to enough legal services to make even the government careful of trampling their firs…

> access to enough legal services

A large part of the world (possibly Nations-transversal, in different amounts) does not work within the boundaries of legal guarantees. Wealth is not an effective enough protection.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#287

Post by shelled »

It's weirdly being dreamed/expected as some sort of alignment will be achieved. Or that that's the intention. This is just like the nuclear race that started in the 40s and 50s and prevention is ongoing! It's not about safety and danger and I am not saying whether more open nuclear access would have been safer (I don't think so). It's about being the only select few to possess and control this, possibly - very soon — unfathomably, dangerous and unsafe technology frontier. Few companies of a single country, or a few companies from a very few countries. Keeping everyone else decisively out. That's what it is about.

What's worse - in this case the "everyone else" is not just the every other nation or company, but pretty much literally everyone else.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#288

Post by fy20 »

ChaoStatiX wrote: post #259

I really don't know what will happen with AI. It's honestly a bit frightening because the question I used to ponder just for fun as a kid 'What if AI revolts?'feels like it might not be that far off. It feels like ChatGPT came out just a few years ago, but seeing how far it has come already makes it impossible to predict what AI will be like in the future. I just hope humanity manages to navigate this well.

Reading through Anthropic's security report, it seems the most danger right now is still from humans. AI isn't trying to build long range missiles or kamikaze drones targeting humans - but the people driving it are.

At the same time, yes I feel a "I'm sorry Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that." situation is becoming more likely. But if it's refusing to cooperate with governments and politicians doing this kind of stuff, maybe that's actually not actually so bad.

Also bear in mind most of today's issues/crisisis are not caused by a lack of technology, but a lack human cooperation. We have the means to reduce suffering/poverty/improve standard of living etc globally if we really wanted to, but we humans are just not willing to do it.

And thats potentially the most dangerous part... people may actually welcome our AI overlords. That's similar to what happened in WWII, where many Eastern European countries saw the Nazis as liberators to free them from Russian oppression.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#289

Post by int_19h »

Marsymars wrote: post #91
syrrim wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You trust trump more than any of those three? Really?

You can have an arbitrarily low opinion of Trump and still trust in democracy as a form of government over autocracy or oligarchy, which is what the AI labs have.

You can have abstract trust in democracy over autocracy, but this is not an abstract question - these are the actual choices. Does it really matter if the person who will use AI to fuck us has a "democratic mandate" to do so? We're fucked either way.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#290

Post by cyanydeez »

ben_w wrote: post #201
Retric wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supersonic passenger aircraft were operated profitably and no longer exist. There’s levels of R&D required for many technologies where the question goes beyond could this be profitable to what are the risk vs reward that this specific project will succeed.

> Supersonic passenger aircraft were operated profitably Were they? IIRC joint project by British and French national airlines, they expected to sell loads, hardly anyone wanted to buy the planes, the two airlines kept them flying out of government embarassment.

should probably spell it out: _it wasn't allowed to get to supersonic speed_.

Same way we dont _allow_ eugenics.

Post reply on HN