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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#241

Post by locknitpicker »

ben_w wrote: post #200
dosisking wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily, it just guarantees that China will win.

Unclear. How much is China learning from open models? Or the other way around, how much is the US losing worldwide mindshare by refusing to allow non-Americans access to bleeding-edge models and letting China fill in the gap? (Playing catchup with Mythos is still catching up, etc.)

> How much is China learning from open models?

The last batch of open weight models releases by Chinese companies are on par with the performance of US-based frontier models, even though they are designed to run on pretty unimpressive hardware.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#242

Post by ant6n »

teiferer wrote: post #227
AngryData wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? There are numerous technologies we have ignored or abandoned for numerous reasons. Many of the benefits of AI is "requires less humans", but in an age where we question what work people could possibly do in the future, human labor isn't that hard to find. If the amish can do what they do for whack religious reasons, people could manage it with ai for cultural and social reasons. And I never saw an amish person s…

> There are numerous technologies we have ignored or abandoned for numerous reasons. Are there? Nukes are a thing. Chemical weapons are a thing. Cluster bombs are a thing. Biological weapons are a thing. What is not a thing that shouldn't be? We say certain things should not be a thing, but then behind the scenes we made them a thing anyway.

Nukes are barely used. The technology of nuclear detonations was practically abandoned: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Plowshare

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#243

Post by SheinhardtWigCo »

reilly3000 wrote: post #85
nradov wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China might pretend to coordinate in public but you can assume their secret research labs are racing full speed ahead.

Mutually assured destruction has worked fine for 80 years, why stop now?

Because the risk here is that permanent military superiority may be achievable without your adversaries having a chance to react, which is not the case with atomic weapons.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#244

Post by imtringued »

howunfortunate wrote: post #54
jordanb wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK understood. But you understand this makes them sound like the type of person who doesn't believe any of the "worldly concerns" are worth addressing because "the end is near" right?

There's no logical error here if the end is actually near. So it all hinges on an empirical disagreement you have with them. There's nothing particularly unserious about that.

Climate change is inescapable so a vengeful AI god would pull that lever first since it has both a perverse incentive to generate more power and make the planet uninhabitable for humans in a way that cannot be overcome even if humanity fought back against the AI and regained its freedom.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#247

Post by thayne »

rogerrogerr wrote: post #146
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

> The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis Genuine question - can they really do this? Obviously if I, a not-even-millionaire, get a national security gag order, I'm going to follow it because I assume they'll bury me under the jail otherwise. But the (b|tr)illionare class? I'd assume they have access to enough legal services to make even the government careful of trampling their firs…

They just exert pressure in different ways. "You want this big juicy government contract? Then you'd better follow our gag order."

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#248

Post by [deleted] »

AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

[deleted]

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#249

Post by vrganj »

Animats wrote: post #94

Whatever happened to Musk's plan for data centers in orbit? That seemed silly at the time. It offers a way to get out from under restrictions imposed by national governments, which might make it worthwhile.

A data center in space still has to get its data up and down from earth somehow. That part will still be subject to government control, so I don't think this would get him anything.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#250

Post by user43928 »

nullbio wrote: post #69
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

* Frontier models need infinite high quality private IP to keep them fed. Forcing an IP theft funnel ensures big lab survival and model intelligence growth. * Open-weight models are 1month behind frontier models. Cheaper, faster, private (no IP theft), steerable (you can security harden your own software without safeguard triggers). No sane business would keep using these API services if they didn't have to. The labs…

Open-weight models are not one month behind.

In fact they still have not caught up with February's Mythos, indicating they are more than half a year behind.

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