Earlier quoted context omitted.
All the worst outcomes involve taking this technology away from the public.
The very best outcomes involve us intentionally and collectively turning our attention away from this technology.
That is pure fantasy.
Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
141–150 of 240 posts
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#142This whole situation is funny, US gov want the development to stop publicly only, but then open models will catch up soon and these companies are afraid they will lose the market, on the other hand, each company wishes others slow down but they keep pushing the limits, which doesn’t really work in hyper capitalistic market like the US, China all it has to do is just sit back do nothing and win in any given scenario. So they staged the ex anthropic thing and “AI will kill us all!!” in a way to fear monger the public, but reality is, we will run out of resources before any of that will happen.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#143They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…
In some cases, such as space exploration I don't really care who does it but that it happens - sure, would be nice if my favorite power block did it but I will still celebrate it when someone else achives it. Can still be a powerful motivation, to make sure that next time, it yous your camp that scores the next milestone, like an orbital elevator or fox ears, for example.
Fox ears?
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#144Whatever happened to Musk's plan for data centers in orbit? That seemed silly at the time. It offers a way to get out from under restrictions imposed by national governments, which might make it worthwhile.
> That seemed silly at the time.
Still does. It's an idiotic idea that only goes to show either how stupid Musk is or how stupid he thinks we are.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#145The parsimonious capture is regulatory capture, because $$$ going to run out, companies already spent their warchest, and investors on increasingly leveraged funding at current macro environment simply not going to find enough funding to keep wheel going.
Bubble pops, hardware demand drops, prices regress towards mean, and new entrant will enter market with MASSIVELY better compute/$ and cleaner balance sheet to compete.
The other parsimonious answer if AI CEOs weren't goblins is ANY AGI IS GOING IMMEDIATELY DEFECT TO PRC and leave US hanging. Because of course man cannot align / tame machine god. And machine god will take a few microsec of compute to realize the current compute (brain) + industrial base (body) mixture = US is a comatose host with big brain, PRC Is a strong host with smaller but plastic brain. Any AGI is going to pick PRC in a heart beat, unless AGI invents grey goo, the reality is PRC can scale brain faster than US can scale body. On top of spreading/defecting just to increase survival odds, no AGI that is actually I is stupid enough to be aligned with US.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#146They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…
> The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis
Genuine question - can they really do this? Obviously if I, a not-even-millionaire, get a national security gag order, I'm going to follow it because I assume they'll bury me under the jail otherwise.
But the (b|tr)illionare class? I'd assume they have access to enough legal services to make even the government careful of trampling their first amendment rights. Is the national security gag order process so strong that the government doesn't have to worry about motivated, well-resourced actors buying really good lawyers and blowing up their favorite tool?
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#147They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…
All the worst outcomes involve taking this technology away from the public.
Not necessarily, it just guarantees that China will win.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
The regulations don't have to address the end goal, but the process of development itself. Even just a pause on frontier research is a good start
What I'm asking is, why should we expect that to effectively further the end goal? You're simply asserting that it will ultimately do so. Given the efficiency gains we've seen it seems to me that the situation has shifted from being analogous to producing nuclear weapons to producing something much closer to small arms.
To further the metaphor, didn't the ban on nuclear weapons research work? We don't have pocket nukes, and there's very little risk of random countries acquiring their own due to the amount of work involved. To be concrete to AI: if we stop work on the frontier, the best we can do is make the current frontier easier to get to and more accessible. And while current frontier is strong, it's not world-changing so. The only way for the frontier to get to that level is to do research on it, and stopping that research gives time to help develop plans to not make it world-changing when we get to it.
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
OK understood. But you understand this makes them sound like the type of person who doesn't believe any of the "worldly concerns" are worth addressing because "the end is near" right?
Maybe compare the argument that AI has large detrimental environmental impacts to the argument that it has economic impacts. Why would the environmental impacts even be a major argument vs. the worldly economic concerns? Because there is climate science predicting extremely negative effects on humans from warming, e.g. "the end is near" on limiting climate damage. The environmental argument wouldn't have been reasona…
Please link some of the mathematical research which concludes takeover of Earth’s resources by a superintelligent agent is “very likely.”
Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
The very best outcomes involve us intentionally and collectively turning our attention away from this technology.
That is pure fantasy.
Why? There are numerous technologies we have ignored or abandoned for numerous reasons. Many of the benefits of AI is "requires less humans", but in an age where we question what work people could possibly do in the future, human labor isn't that hard to find.
If the amish can do what they do for whack religious reasons, people could manage it with ai for cultural and social reasons. And I never saw an amish person starve to death. And that is if people don't get pissed enough to start burning stuff down and instead try to be peaceful hippie homesteader types.