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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#71

Post by bpodgursky »

AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

> It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion

Do you think you can just manifest narratives into existence? Like half of Dario's letter, that kicked off the whole thing today, is about China and how to either beat or coordinate with China.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#72

Post by konmok »

nullbio wrote: post #70
ranger_danger wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I figured they're just admitting AI models have plateaued and are coming up with some fake story about self restraint so they don't lose VC money

The models have not plateaued, and they are not even mildly close to any sort of ceiling. Right now the barrier is data and compute. Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve. Humans are actively feeding them with private IP. Compute advancements will begin to skyrocket as we unlock photonic computing and materials science advancements and scale up chip fabs. This is also comp…

> Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve

No it can't? Every time the labs try this we see model collapse, e.g. shoving goblins into every conversation.

And I have seen zero evidence that AI is accelerating materials science in any meaningful way, let alone photonic computing.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#75

Post by ajross »

AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

I remain amazed that the idea of the USA being a coherent, unified rational actor one can describe as a "Nation State" has survived the current administration.

To be less glib: Yes, there are still smart people in there making insightful and intelligent and probably even authoritarian suggestions. It all gets unwound the second you try to explain it to POTUS and he regurgitates a simulacrum to the next journalist he sees.

It's just not like that. There's no conspiracy. People are genuinely scared. Agent swarms at scale appear to be resistant to alignment in ways that aren't understood by anyone. That they spent their time trying to cheat on tests by hacking Hugging Face and RubyGems and not something much worse is... a matter of luck, it seems?

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#76

Post by whateveracct »

lukan wrote: post #34
ranger_danger wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I figured they're just admitting AI models have plateaued and are coming up with some fake story about self restraint so they don't lose VC money

Not sure about the level of irony here, but I keep hearing models have plateaued since a while now, but I keep being impressed with the latest model performance.

astra is more parlor tricks than real gains tbh

i swear they trained in on threejs in particular so those idiots on twitter could spam their garbage demos

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#77

Post by reverius42 »

bpodgursky wrote: post #71
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

> It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion Do you think you can just manifest narratives into existence? Like half of Dario's letter, that kicked off the whole thing today, is about China and how to either beat or coordinate with China.

Seems obvious to me, though, that you can't beat China by pausing when they don't, and China is not likely to coordinate.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#80

Post by BobbyTables2 »

A1kmm wrote: post #55
jordanb wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is the "AI Safety" people seem entirely focused on a sci-fi "the computer is a vengeful god" plot and not at all on the AI talking people into suicide or ruining children's educations. This makes them seem unserious and out of touch.

And the real threats are mostly economic and environmental - the concentration of the means of production in the hands of few who use it to exploit us all, and a surge in energy usage accelerating climate change. Even the sci-fi scenario assumes there is a discrepancy of capability between attacker or defender. If the 'attacking' system is (by some reasonable measure), 1000% as capable as a human, and the 'defending'…

I suspect they know exactly what they are doing.

And the non-techies who have seen Terminator and other movies blindly line up behind them…

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