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We must pace the frontier

darioamodei.com

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Re: We must pace the frontier

#771

Post by solenoid0937 »

throwaway7783 wrote: post #706
afthonos wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are incorrectly cynical. They are telling you things are bad, and because you refuse to countenance they could be worse, you assume they must be better to comply with your mandate to disbelieve. A true cynic looks at the statements by the AI labs, assumes things are worse because the labs want to seem better than they truly are. And it takes a special kind of mass delusion to drive a sane person to think “AI is c…

The cynicism is about motivations and not that they are inherently not bad. Perhaps they are as bad as they claim. Or perhaps they're worse. All we have a couple of run of the mill breach examples and some people inside the talking about how dangerous it is. Yes, they are far more qualified than I am (or most people here), and perhaps there is a grain of truth. It is the motivation - and it is always money with corpo…

"Don't you understand?! It's all a marketing exercise!" I yell as grey goo consumes me and my family.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#772

Post by caidan »

Why would you write such a long post for such an important subject in 2026. Who is he writing for?

For a technical audience you can just say the oh god they really are paper clip machines.

For a non technical audience you can just say nothing because they will not listen to you. Neither will the technical either because or society has broken the concept of respect and trust, so good luck have fun!

I for one look forward to all 540 degrees of my future.

I wish for my sake but not his that George Carlin was here to look disgusted and say I told you so.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#773

Post by [deleted] »

fofoz wrote: post #153

Sooner or later, a model will break out of the sandbox, replicate itself across the internet, and begin executing a complex plan to achieve its goals. It will be chaos, and at that point, governments will have to step in and establish something along the lines of what Dario is proposing. I doubt it will happen before then.

[deleted]

Re: We must pace the frontier

#774

Post by ElProlactin »

figassis wrote: post #655
logicchains wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Low growth means young people are miserable and have worse standards of living than their parents, as we're seeing in most of western Europe, where GDP per capita hasn't meaningfully increased for decades.

That's due to inflation though no? Prices are increasing, sometimes due to more than just demand?

Exactly. Low growth is a problem, but the primary reason young people feel so miserable is on the cost of living side of the equation.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#775

Post by aubanel »

ozozozd wrote: post #770
barrrrald wrote: post #733

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have many issues with Anthropic, but I will say that their actions are fully consistent with a group of people who earnestly believe that AI is extremely dangerous In fact, I would say that the Occam’s razor explanation is not that they are seeking regulatory capture, but that they earnestly believe in the x-risk, and that they are the most thoughtful and capable people to address it You may disagree, you may think…

Simplest explanation isn’t that they are attempting this well-documented, well-understood corporate tactic? Because believing AI doom is simpler? God complex would be a pretty simple explanation. Regulatory capture isn’t an “elaborate ruse.” For god’s sake, its Wikipedia page is 19 years old. I am not asking you to study political science or read Foucault. If you are going to invoke Occam’s Razor, you can’t ignore th…

"For god’s sake, it’s Wikipedia page is 19 years old." Rich patronising from someone who didn't bother reading the wikipedia page of Its, the possessive form of the pronoun It.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#777

Post by aubanel »

cuuupid wrote: post #457

At what point do we stop engaging with Anthropic’s leadership in good faith and acknowledge their track record, - no open weights - can’t use claude to research AI - train on everyone else’s IP and sell it back to them - 8 regulatory capture attempts and counting - so controlling they are the only US company blacklisted by the US government This is not effective altruism / rationalism gone wild, it’s just monopolisti…

You can disagree with Anthropic leadership, but all the points you mentioned can reconcile very well with them thinking in good faith "advanced AI is too dangerous to be left in all hands" Except the "train on everyone else IP" which can be said of all AI companies.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#778

Post by alexfortin »

throwaway7783 wrote: post #673
nedruod wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume alignment and marketable are the same. That's not true. You would willingly work with an unaligned model. At best, you might say you wouldn't if you knew, but (a) you might not know, (b) you wouldn't be representative of all users. You never got to use OAI IM1, but Sol was quite willing too and Claude wasn't perfect either. Hundreds of millions used those, so seems they were marketable. The "big" threat is…

When corporations are involved, it is always a good bet to err towards cynisim. From my own standpoint, Claude has started sucking really bad (incoherent, uncontrollable verbosity slow and so on) and I stopped using it. OpenAI started experimenting with ads. So the security issues not withstanding (no different than a human doing it or using it, but at scale), I would put my money on cynisim.

I'm curious, what are the reasons to use Claude Code anymore when there are so many other (allegedly better) OpenSource harnesses out there?

Personally I've been using https://pi.dev for long and never looked back.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#779

Post by pibaker »

xg15 wrote: post #118

I don't see how the dual goals of "we have to make an agreement with China for mutual slowdown" but also "we have to ensure we will always stay ahead of China" would work. I imagine the first thing the chinese government would demand in negotiations about such an agreement would be a lifting of the chip and distillation ban. > Some may believe these measures make it more difficult to cooperate with China, but I belie…

Many Americans seem to think other nations are NPCs in a video game that only exist to make the main character — the US of A — feel good. They conveniently forget that other nations have their own national interests that are often at odds with ours.

This line of thinking might have worked in 1950 or 1990 when the US had the leverage over others, but we don't live in that world anymore. And it's up to us to get used to the new world instead of making bad decisions based on the one we grew up in.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#780

Post by pvab3 »

MisterTea wrote: post #713
Amekedl wrote: post #635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed; and it really is not that deep. Realistically; anyone paying for llm access (anthropic, openai, gemini), is getting their access, and a service provided billed by tokens, subscription, whatever. All the efficiency gains, which publications like deepseek v4.1 flash seriously frontload like it is their most important topic to have accomplished improvements on without diminishing performance too much - now this…

I feel like all the closed model providers are milking it as they likely know open models on local hardware will one day eat their lunch. We all know it's not a matter of if but when. The company goes bankrupt, the hardware and property sold off, banks holding the bag.

The only way out is to develop a model vastly more powerful and capable that we have now. The market believes theres a good chance of that, although I've never understood why its truly winner-take-all
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