Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t think solving a millennium prize problem can be reduced to some DoorDash economics of “spent Y to make X.” What if it took someone their entire professional career to solve one of these problems, would it not be worth it by the same logic?
Surprisingly this is actually rather fitting in terms of time scale. When you consider it took ~10,000 agents 88 hours, or 880,000 hours to solve. That's 14.5 years in agent time of continuous 365/24/7 processing. Of course, humans solve things much more efficiently (and didn't also need the massive pre-training of every expert on the planet for 1,000,000,000 human years equivalent). But yeah, human researchers can s…
Navier-Stokes Announcement
241–250 of 292 posts
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#242Their rules PDF says they won't accept any solution until at least two years after publication in a qualifying outlet. This allows time for the mathematical community to review and accept new results. As the OpenAI proof hasn't been officially published yet, the clock hasn't started ticking.
I'm not sure it actually makes a difference. OpenAI doesn't care about the million dollars in any case. And the judgement that they did it is independent of whether the Clay people agree: you can make up your own mind and so can everyone else. Though it would be funny if no one ever bothers publishing the result in an appropriate journal, and thus the prize technically can never be claimed.
I'd be furious.
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
None of the frontier labs care about Chess as it's already a solved problem. If they did, the models would be much better. It's really not that hard. Google has a paper on grandmaster level chess without search from transformers. Better obviously means better, like how they became better than they were 6 months and a year ago.
I would describe better as how much of my work I can delegate to the agent. Right now I'm delegating much more to Astra high than 6 months ago to Opus 4.6. Every dev has this feeling, it's weird to even argue what a better model/harness means.
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#244Earlier quoted context omitted.
> And the judgement that they did it is independent of whether the Clay people agree: you can make up your own mind and so can everyone else. No I cannot, and I'd argue most people can't either. We rely on mathematicians, peer review, and letting the scientific process run its course.
It's formalized in Lean, isn't it? Do you also rely on a community of C++ experts to tell you whether a program compiles or not?
If that's the current burden of proof required in your world for maths then that's fine! 't'ain't in my world: I want to see peer reviewed and published. Surely that's not too much to ask. Its not perfect but generally works rather well for maths.
I'm not a sodding programmer so please don't assume everyone here is one. I'm not a mathematician either but I do have standards: Your counter argument is a poorly constructed and inappropriately deployed example of "proof by whataboutism".
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
Something like this sketch work for you? peer(X, 0) :- founding_peer(X). electorate(T, count ) :- peer(Y, T). support(X, T, count ) :- candidate(X), peer(Y, T), recognizes(Y, X, T+1). peer(X, T+1) :- support(X, T, Votes), electorate(T, Total), 2 * Votes > Total.
Still waiting for a definition. People giving nonsense reviews is a feature of the peer review system though, yes.
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
None of the frontier labs care about Chess as it's already a solved problem. If they did, the models would be much better. It's really not that hard. Google has a paper on grandmaster level chess without search from transformers. Better obviously means better, like how they became better than they were 6 months and a year ago.
I would describe better as how much of my work I can delegate to the agent. Right now I'm delegating much more to Astra high than 6 months ago to Opus 4.6. Every dev has this feeling, it's weird to even argue what a better model/harness means.
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
No it isn't. Best and worst and ill-defined anyway but the chess ELO score of various LLMs has fluctuated up and down, it's not been montonically increasing. What is the best answer to "how do I make cocaine"? The models are getting larger, with more compute and RAM backing them, but that doesn't automatically make them better if you don't define how you're measuring better-ness.
None of the frontier labs care about Chess as it's already a solved problem. If they did, the models would be much better. It's really not that hard. Google has a paper on grandmaster level chess without search from transformers. Better obviously means better, like how they became better than they were 6 months and a year ago.
e.g. If someone said "this is the worst they'll ever be" in response to some writing with obvious LLM cliches in 2024, I'm not convinced that prediction was actually correct.
The focus of OpenAI/Anthropic pivoted aggressively to the agentic performance arms race instead of making a more human sounding chatbot so regressions in writing ability aren't really a concern anymore if agentic benchmarks improve.
The first time I heard a recommendation to use Claude was specifically because it sounded much more "human" and natural than ChatGPT. Fast forward to now and idiosyncratic Claude-isms repeated every other sentence and its convoluted verbosity has become a widely mocked meme.
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#248In my opinion, I think the Clay Mathematics Institute deserves some criticism for all the drama surrounding these problems. Mathematicians know that you can make problems arbitrarily complex, and declaring problems with large prizes attached to them can lead to a lot of competition and drama. I feel that mathematics should be free from competitions and the pursuit of glory. However, after reading the open letter sign…
> Mathematicians know that you can make problems arbitrarily complex, and declaring problems with large prizes attached to them can lead to a lot of competition and drama. Yes, you can make problems arbitrarily complex. But the prize problems were chosen not just because the solutions appear likely to be very complex (the problem statements aren't necessarily inherently complex--there is a way to restate the Riemann…
If building a machine that solves these kinds of problems isn't a "major breakthrough," I don't know what is. Is the objection merely that it came from engineers rather than mathematicians? If so, there's plenty of room for contributions from many fields.
The best thing a mathematician can do to advance their art, at this point, is to drop whatever they're doing and work on AI.
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
I also think they overestimate how much of most jobs can be done by an LLM (a text generator!), and how much importance and reliance most companies put into soft skills, and non-linguistic understanding/feels, both during interviewing (are they Googley-enough?) and afterwards. For example, how do you reconcile return-to-work mandates with the idea that companies are going to be happy with faceless remote workers? Wha…
Yeah. Not to mention the paper-clip maximizing that RL induces in them. I had 5.6-Luna use a parser combinator lib in order to find out that it imported it but wrote its own parser, so it technically followed my instructions. Imagine that paper-clip maximizing happening over millions of tasks. I think we are just entering the LLM + Human era.
Got to admire the gung-ho approach I suppose ?
Re: Navier-Stokes Announcement
#250Proving things without comprehending them is a threat to intellectual work.