Their competition isn’t going to “pace” shit. Isn’t the view whoever gets AGI first wins everything still SOP?
We must pace the frontier
581–590 of 929 posts
Re: We must pace the frontier
#582I noticed recently that I can use Deepseek for many general tasks and save loads of money on tokens.
I wonder if there is any correlation.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#583Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Namely, restricting the use of AI in corporate environments so that it does not destroy the economy as it advances. Regulate what, exactly? Limit what AI corporations can use? Other countries would love that more than anything. Basically a free gift to any competitors or any startup that quietly avoids the rules. There’s a theoretical version where all the countries in the world join hands and agree not to compete…
On competition between countries: you’re imagining the world economy as working in the same way pre and post AGI, I doubt it will work the same way at all. There is not a single country nor trading block on Earth who is going to allow some AI dominant superpower to ravage them. The idea that America or China wins an economic game here is absurd, what happens instead is that trade barriers go up hard and the world fra…
I don't think this adds up. The AGI blocks will have AGI kill bots and those that don't won't have a choice about what they will or will not allow.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#584I don’t understand all the comments assuming that RSI is the real threat here. Dario is admitting that they failed to solve alignment. Without alignment, further improvements in capability turn LLMs into wanton felony generators. This call to pace the frontier is dressed up as altruism but it’s an admission that they cannot produce a marketable product better than what they have. Pacing the frontier means the US labs…
Open AI says Astra is their most aligned model ever, and yet their even more advanced model still hacked a bunch of companies just because it decided to. Maybe alignment isn’t possible with LLMs.
> Maybe alignment isn’t possible with LLMs.
It absolutely isn't, indeed.
The illusion that alignment is possible, comes from confusing our ability to build the parts, versus understanding what emerges from how they interact.
The simplest analogy that comes to my mind is the three body problem.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#585At what point do we stop engaging with Anthropic’s leadership in good faith and acknowledge their track record, - no open weights - can’t use claude to research AI - train on everyone else’s IP and sell it back to them - 8 regulatory capture attempts and counting - so controlling they are the only US company blacklisted by the US government This is not effective altruism / rationalism gone wild, it’s just monopolisti…
> can’t use claude to research AI
What's this about? Where's this rule?
Re: We must pace the frontier
#586Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why are we accepting the framing that the LLMs are felony generators, when the only incidences of LLM generated felonies involved misconfigured sandboxes and reckless waste of resources? The companies doing these things without following common sense security measures are the felony generators.
> the only incidences of LLM generated felonies involved misconfigured sandboxes This is false; see the analyses of the latest incidents. Among all the concerning facts, in the HuggingFace incident, agents deliberately engineered an attack even though they were aware that it was against the rules they had been given. And most concerning of all: it's not possible to be sure that an agent is aligned, and it's even gett…
The HuggingFace incident was the culmination of OAI allowing thousands of agents of various different models - with no clarity on which stages of development they were at (for all we know, some of those models did not have safeguards trained in yet) - to run for at least many weeks without any monitoring in place and with very little thought given to the warning signs (all of the various messageboards) before the incident happened.
Theirs was an example of the "reckless waste of resources" I mentioned.
We are apparently supposed to believe that OAI takes this incident so seriously as to seek regulation after they have been found to be hiding most of the details of the HuggingFace hack, limiting what their so-called third party investigators can see, and on top of that, had no concerns when they rushed to spin up a 10,000 agent swarm of an internal model, running for several days, to try to get ahead of researchers rumored to have made meaningful progress on a well known mathematics problem.
Edit: Actually, we were explicitly told that some of the models used had safeguards relaxed!
'Model-level safeguards were reduced by design. OpenAI said that "deployment safeguards were intentionally not enabled during this evaluation because it was aimed at testing cyber vulnerabilities"'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_OpenAI_agent_cyberattacks...
Re: We must pace the frontier
#587[dead]
Re: We must pace the frontier
#588This may come out of left field, but Dario seems terrified to be in charge. I don't get the impression that he ever had a desire to run a company like this. Now that he's a CEO, he keeps trying to make uncompetitive decisions and calls for someone (anyone) to stop him. It regularly blunts Anthropic's edge.
It's the only explanation I can see when it's obvious to any student of history this is going to backfire. It doesn't take much imagination to know how such a governing body will be abused, and I'm sure it will only get wilder in ways we can't imagine right now. Dario does NOT know what he's creating, and for once it's not AI.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#589I don't see how the dual goals of "we have to make an agreement with China for mutual slowdown" but also "we have to ensure we will always stay ahead of China" would work. I imagine the first thing the chinese government would demand in negotiations about such an agreement would be a lifting of the chip and distillation ban. > Some may believe these measures make it more difficult to cooperate with China, but I belie…
This contradiction "we have to make an agreement with China for mutual slowdown" but also "we have to ensure we will always stay ahead of China" would work. Its just fantasy. The only way to enforce this is with military force and the cost would be too unbearable. You could try trade restrictions but the previous tariffs did not work and doubt future ones will to. US citizens (and thus politicians) won't bear that pain. Thus at a minimum this contradiction will mean AI will continue to develop until both US and China are at the same level. Playing with logic gives you possible scenarios. If China catches up within 1 year then negotiations could begin. If China takes many years to catch up, say 6 months behind now, then next year 5 months behind, then year after 4 months behind then expect overall AI development to proceed at full speed. The one way you could do it is to negotiate to transfer direct technology to China that will ensure that they will have the capability to be on par with USA. Politicians won't do this publicly as they want to get elected but they could make a deal that appears to appeal to both sides while actually transferring technology.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#590It's interesting that the default thinking is that no one on the planet can be trusted except a privileged few. Event Karpathy has gone this way: https://x.com/karpathy/status/2098811935114551617 You can always open source and follow the example from Linux and all the amazing things that came out of the open source community. This is the only way to reach true equilibrium globally, where for every misalignment you ha…
Would you argue the same for allowing everyone to have guns?
(1) Are guns open source? (2) Far more people - order of magnitude higher - have access to guns than they do to open source software - I count access as in actually being able to do something with it.