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Nvidia is the central bank of AI

economist.com

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Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#201

Post by alansaber »

anu7df wrote: post #198

Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming, and the first one to accept this and slow down the dollar burn rate will incur the wrath of the market. So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together. Bonus point…

The frontier companies asking for regulation is somehow one of their less insane marketing ploy to date

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#202

Post by moffkalast »

pdpi wrote: post #50
thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

> Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them. It's kind of weird. nVidia kind of has the PC market cornered, but AMD has had the last couple of generations of Xbox and Playstation. Also, they power the Steam Deck/Machine, and Valve has been contributing a lot of AMD graphics features into the Linux drivers. There is a world where AMD (and maybe even Linux on AMD specifically) becomes the…

Well AMD does have the Steam Machine now, they really like doing console integrations. Shame it won't really sell given the pricing situation.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#203

Post by kennywinker »

vunderba wrote: post #199
kennywinker wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

> People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model... It’s not quite as simple as that. Several studies have shown the opposite: models trained on more diverse knowledge tend to cross-pollinate across domains. So a more generalized model can actually perform better than a specialized one. That’s why you’re not seeing tons of tiny m…

This is definitely the position of the big ai companies.

But it doesn't match my experience. Qwen3.8 27b is clearly smarter at coding than MANY bigger models. gpt-oss-120b for example, is almost 4x the size, and performs way worse at coding tasks.

It's clear to me that you can build small models that work well at specific tasks.

Python vs Rust is probably too fine grained a way to build a model. Coding in general seems like a better target.

There will always be a place for large generalist models, no doubt. But I think that place is much smaller than the big ai companies are counting on.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#204

Post by lelanthran »

vunderba wrote: post #199
kennywinker wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

> People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model... It’s not quite as simple as that. Several studies have shown the opposite: models trained on more diverse knowledge tend to cross-pollinate across domains. So a more generalized model can actually perform better than a specialized one. That’s why you’re not seeing tons of tiny m…

Problem is conflict of interest: the studies are mostly from the providers of the biggest models, or someone who received free tokens to do the research.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#205

Post by lelanthran »

ravenstine wrote: post #164
spunker540 wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you use coding agents? Just curious bc from my experience using coding agents, open ai’s codex is neck and neck with anthropic’s claude code if not ahead. I wouldn’t agree that OpenAI hasn’t done anything since ChatGPT since codex is my daily driver for software engineering

It's kinda nuts to me how people can act like Claude is lightyears ahead of OpenAI models. Sure, it's one thing to simply have a preference or claim that Claude does some things better, but in reality they are both about as effective at doing the same job. I've long preferred GPT models because they know better how to shut up and don't seem to overthink as much as Claude, but I'm under no illusions that if OpenAI wen…

All the models converged, in every single generation since 2022.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#206

Post by vunderba »

kennywinker wrote: post #203
vunderba wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model... It’s not quite as simple as that. Several studies have shown the opposite: models trained on more diverse knowledge tend to cross-pollinate across domains. So a more generalized model can actually perform better than a specialized one. That’s why you’re not seeing tons of tiny m…

This is definitely the position of the big ai companies. But it doesn't match my experience. Qwen3.8 27b is clearly smarter at coding than MANY bigger models. gpt-oss-120b for example, is almost 4x the size, and performs way worse at coding tasks. It's clear to me that you can build small models that work well at specific tasks. Python vs Rust is probably too fine grained a way to build a model. Coding in general see…

I think we’re in agreement.

I make heavy use of smaller local models on a daily basis (Qwen3-VL for auto-captioning images, Gemma3:27b for some translation work, etc.). Gemma3:27b is a good example of a very capable general purpose multimodal model and has handled almost everything I've thrown at it from sentiment analysis to documentation writing.

I suppose I was drawing a distinction between specialized and general intelligence versus small and large. I don’t think those are necessarily mutually exclusive.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#207

Post by fasterik »

ares623 wrote: post #200
manlymuppet wrote: post #69

I've always found it interesting when corporations start acting like public institutions. When traditionally philosophical, social contract ideas apply to things like corporate governance. Or like here, where private structures get powerful and important enough to resemble government structures. The ideas we deal with when we discuss society and organization aren't exclusive to government, they relate to human nature…

The governments of today weren't formed out of "discussions of power"

The American Revolution was very much a discussion about power. Of course, it wasn't just a discussion (we had to fight a war to defend the new form of government), but it was driven by the same concerns about the distribution of power.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#208

Post by lelanthran »

thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

> I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers.

It really shouldn't: the most money in games are those games that don't require high end GPUs.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#209

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

fragmede wrote: post #197
noir_lord wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD would step in, they where behind nvidia but they've been closing that gap for a while and the 9070XT is the current value king (in this fucked up market) for mid-high gaming and you can actually buy them. Demand for Nvidia cards has outstripped supply even on the mid-high cards specifically because they do better with local models than AMD cards with the same VRAM do broadly. AI has completely broken the PC gamin…

Cryptocurrency mining had it broken before that. PC gaming's golden years are behind us, as AI, even if not LLMs, seems like it's not going away, so the gaming market is now the niche hobby while AI takes center stage. RIP. My first gaming ~GPU~ (we called them 3d accelerators back then) was a Diamond Monster II with a 3dfx Voodoo 2 chip.

> Diamond Monster II with a 3dfx Voodoo 2 chip

Oh shit, I had file deleted that. I remember now. I think I used that with the first N64 emulator, I think Project something to play Turok the first person dinosaur hunter game. Life before the internet was better I think.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#210

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #187
pdpi wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them. It's kind of weird. nVidia kind of has the PC market cornered, but AMD has had the last couple of generations of Xbox and Playstation. Also, they power the Steam Deck/Machine, and Valve has been contributing a lot of AMD graphics features into the Linux drivers. There is a world where AMD (and maybe even Linux on AMD specifically) becomes the…

> It's kind of weird. nVidia kind of has the PC market cornered, but AMD has had the last couple of generations of Xbox and Playstation I have been getting the vibes that Sony is positioning themselves to back out of videogames. I don't think we're going to see a PS6.

There will be a PS6 and a NextBox… it’s just that Sony is cracking down on what some idiot MBAs have decided are “unrealized monitary streams”.
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