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We must pace the frontier

darioamodei.com

451–460 of 936 posts

Re: We must pace the frontier

#451
post #391
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the part I find being left surprisingly hand-wavey. If you extrapolate it out, you see that it has a high likelihood of inciting physical force (read: military action) as a means of enforcement, so perhaps that's why nobody promoting ideals has been direct about it.

Military action against whom? the US can’t even handle Iran let alone China.

Americans live in their own plane of reality, where they play the superhero surrounded by evil villains.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#452
post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Super intelligence (the ability to have many smarter minds than your own reporting to you) has always been available to the wealthy and powerful This is not what superintelligence is. Don't be like Meta and redefine existing terms for marketing purposes.

In many way it is, because it allows defeting many incorret arguments people in power make, or simply asking where is the cheapest product ”X” with one question. Or simply be more aware or any kind of scam people or companies try to do for you. It is pushing equal intellectuality quite hard with low effort.

No. You don't "defet" (sic) "incorret" (sic) arguments by making up new definitions for existing words. Stop doing that.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#453

I know the common take online is that this is Anthropic doing pre-IPO marketing. I don’t think it is. I think Dario is genuinely afraid of the inevitability of AI turning into internet slime mold: consuming the environment, turning it into its own playground, and eventually manipulating human culture along with it. So am I. That said, if slowing this down were possible, I think it would have happened by now. Maybe he…

> I think Dario is genuinely afraid of the inevitability of AI turning into internet slime mold

Then he should not IPO, dissolve the company and go into politics to fight against human extinction.

I am certainly not buying a single Anthropic share. Why would you support them financially if they are telling you they are going to kill all of humanity?

Re: We must pace the frontier

#455
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Distillation is only a great thing for consumers as long as you ignore all AI risks, which are what this post is about. If you don't, you have to weight greater access to better open-source models against greater exposure to risks caused by these models existing. Everything hinges on how major you think the risks will be.

The biggest AI risk, by far, is the concentration of power in a few companies, located in the US. There is a lot of fear marketing about our text generators turning into Terminator. But other than the centralization of power, such fears are largely fiction. (Actual fiction, stuff like ai2027.) And the labs know it: If Anthropic or OpenAI believed in their own narrative of being on the brink of world dominating superi…

I dunno, do you really want to bet that if you took a deliberately unaligned frontier model and asked it to permanently disable the US power grid, it would do a poor job of it?

What odds would you take on this bet?

I’m disturbingly close to 50/50.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#456
I doubt we'll ever get a non-toothless pacing agreement but am nevertheless optimistic on global pacing as a phenomenon. If one side or the other thinks that their opponent is about to achieve the strategic upper hand permanently(or if the other side has actually launched a cyber "first strike") the rational thing to do is respond militarily. As such, both have incentive to slow AI development and restrict capabilities to avoid conflict.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#457
At what point do we stop engaging with Anthropic’s leadership in good faith and acknowledge their track record,

- no open weights

- can’t use claude to research AI

- train on everyone else’s IP and sell it back to them

- 8 regulatory capture attempts and counting

- so controlling they are the only US company blacklisted by the US government

This is not effective altruism / rationalism gone wild, it’s just monopolistic anti-competitive business practices masquerading as ethics, and they’ll continue getting away with this until we look past their sensationalism and hit them with antitrust.

Altman gets so much hate but OpenAI has been a far better steward (on 3/5 above at least) than Anthropic!

Re: We must pace the frontier

#458

[In 2013], "Agents" caused Knight Capital to lose $450M in 45 minutes [1]. Implemented by humans and effected by computers, in the end it was really because of two reasons: * multiple levels of inappropriate controls and unintended consequences in several complex systems * the inability, both politically and technically, to turn it off [1] https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/admin/2013/34-70694.pdf EDIT: Comments in…

Your link is from 2013. You're intentionally using the term "Agent" to muddy the waters. Don't do that.

Re: We must pace the frontier

#459

> Given the accelerating rate of AI capability development, it’s my worry that in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet (potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage), and that the scale of damage would continue to increase from there if AI becomes more powerful without the necessary guardrails. This is the only concrete prediction in th…

??? Why It can use the compute of the computers it hacks.

Then unplug it?
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