“We” does a lot of work here. You keep using that word. I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
We must pace the frontier
121–130 of 943 posts
Re: We must pace the frontier
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
The degradation, polarization, and weaponization of or media landscape over the era of social media has left us utterly incapable of believing anything that anybody says. Dario in particular has consistently been risk-wary on model improvements for going on a decade - long before he was CEO of Anthropic. He believes what he is saying. Human beings can plainly say things that they think are true. Not every utterance b…
I have considered it, I've been hearing way more of it that I like and it's rationalist slop with little to no predictive power: https://foom.hyperplex.org/
Amodei and Yudkowsky are different people with different views. See e.g. https://intelligence.org/2014/01/13/miri-strategy-conversati...
Re: We must pace the frontier
#123[dead]
Re: We must pace the frontier
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
The degradation, polarization, and weaponization of or media landscape over the era of social media has left us utterly incapable of believing anything that anybody says. Dario in particular has consistently been risk-wary on model improvements for going on a decade - long before he was CEO of Anthropic. He believes what he is saying. Human beings can plainly say things that they think are true. Not every utterance b…
This sounds to me like a cry for help from someone thats held hostage. His previous self is writting this from the possition of his current self who is too deep in the economic consequeces to be able to do anything meaningful other than write a consequenceless text. Any other action would now carry too much personal risk for him.
What course of action would you suggest for Dario at this point?
Re: We must pace the frontier
#125What he doesn't tell you is that his undeclared agenda is merely to consolidate his moat via regulatory forcing. Unfortunately for him, he will fail miserably as the open Chinese models catch up and surpass the slowed acceleration of Western models. As for those who think that China will acquiesce, they're smoking some good ganja.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#126Re: We must pace the frontier
#127It's either being afraid of loosing to china or that model development will stagnate and they want to make it look like they are "slowing" down deliberately. However the real reason to slow down is more of how it's introduced to the economy. Hypereautomation will kill jobs and destroy the economy. I work as an AI engineer and companies are delivering products at vibe coding speeds to kill jobs and at the same time au…
> Hypereautomation will kill jobs and destroy the economy. What do you think that were going to hyper automate? Did my gardener get faster? How about the plumber I need? Are you going to speed up the coroner? Are nurses going to be able to handle 2x the patients because of your work? All AI has done, so far, is devalue software. It did that by democratizing its creation. We're delivering on the promise of VB script,…
Meanwhile in the real world hundreds of billions are being invested into humanoid robot development. In 2-3 years my Optimus 4 will do all the gardening and plumbing I need.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think Dario is genuinely afraid of the inevitability If someone genuinely believes that an invention will bring about the end of the world as we know it while making him and his friends inconceivably rich, “hey guys let’s uh, stop?” is so profoundly naive that his think pieces aren’t worth the bits they’re written on. He’s either an idiot or an idiot, does it matter whether or not he genuinely believes this nonse…
>“hey guys let’s uh, stop?” is so profoundly naive that his think pieces aren’t worth the bits they’re written on. What would your non-naive recommendation for Dario be?
I can't even tell whether the poster to whom you're replying is saying that "let's uh, stop" is profoundly naive, or that failing to say it is profoundly naive... I've certainly seen both takes elsewhere.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#129I don't see how the dual goals of "we have to make an agreement with China for mutual slowdown" but also "we have to ensure we will always stay ahead of China" would work. I imagine the first thing the chinese government would demand in negotiations about such an agreement would be a lifting of the chip and distillation ban. > Some may believe these measures make it more difficult to cooperate with China, but I belie…
Some people would like to have law that protects them but doesn't bind and for others to be bound but not protected.
They would like to slow down China while speeding ahead. Why wouldn't they want that?
Now they have to make that happen somehow.
Re: We must pace the frontier
#130There’s a difference between a model recursively improving “itself” and improving itself via online learning, right?
The former being that these models are helping develop and train future models, but they might not veer too far off in architecture (yet). The latter being the same model being able to train/learn on the fly, in real time, permanently (not just in the current conversation/session).
The latter seems far more likely to go out of control than the former. But, it also seems like it would take an entire paradigm shift. Does anyone in the industry think any of these companies are actually close to that kind of self-improvement?