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OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

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Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#91

Post by quikoa »

gfody wrote: post #86
an0malous wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The one where it’s infeasible that a company that needs to live up to a valuation of like 5% of US GDP but is still burning cash and has no moat would willingly decide to slow down the pace of development of their core technology

> has no moat I would love to see someone try to escape with a copy of openai's raw unaligned base model

There is no need for a copy. If another can do most of what OpenAI/Anthropic can do at a fraction of the cost (like the Chinese models) then the moat evaporates.

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#92

Post by manmal »

marcelo-earth wrote: post #50
manmal wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a convenient time, just as coding capability seems to reach the upper end of the S curve.

How? Coding capabilities keep improving, there is no break

Even benchmark improvements over Sol are not that great (and they certainly tried). If we exclude the weird ARC-AGI situation.

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#93

Post by copperx »

mofeien wrote: post #81

It seems that every time an article is posted on HN about a lab leader calling for a coordinated Pause of AI development, a sizeable fraction of commenters are interpreting it as hype or admission of failure, often with high confidence that AI progress is slowing. Is would be understandable for it to be wishful thinking and dissociation with reality facing the fact that our jobs and what many of us love doing is bein…

LLMs are incredibly good at handling code. But you're extrapolating their capabilities just because their handling of code is so shockingly good (compared to what we had before).

I think AGI will be eventually achieved, but it will not come from an LLM, and it will not be anytime soon.

I'll worry when a more promising architecture comes online.

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#94

Post by ToValueFunfetti »

beloch wrote: post #74
MintyPyro wrote: post #53

To all the people whose only opinion on anything that openai does is 'marketing hype', how would you expect them to act if they were making rapid progress and were actually concerned about safety?

Ask for regulation. If progress is coming easy and fast and you're worried about the danger your product poses, you should also be worried about the danger your competitors' products pose. So, you reach out to governments and ask for rules to constrain and slow things down for everyone , so that your company isn't put at a disadvantage for being cautious.

Are you kidding? They've been asking for regulation for years! Altman testified to the Senate in 2023. HN loves calling this hype, eg. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36034314. They just put this out two days ago: https://openai.com/index/ai-policy-window/. If this would move the needle for you, it should have moved a long time ago.

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#95

Post by mofeien »

swingandamiss wrote: post #58
mofeien wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More time to proceed more cautiously in building this entity that will be faster and more effective at steering outcomes in the world than any human or, soon after, the entirety of humans combined.

Do you want the Chinese to stop as well?

Of course

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#96

Post by mofeien »

copperx wrote: post #93
mofeien wrote: post #81

It seems that every time an article is posted on HN about a lab leader calling for a coordinated Pause of AI development, a sizeable fraction of commenters are interpreting it as hype or admission of failure, often with high confidence that AI progress is slowing. Is would be understandable for it to be wishful thinking and dissociation with reality facing the fact that our jobs and what many of us love doing is bein…

LLMs are incredibly good at handling code. But you're extrapolating their capabilities just because their handling of code is so shockingly good (compared to what we had before). I think AGI will be eventually achieved, but it will not come from an LLM, and it will not be anytime soon. I'll worry when a more promising architecture comes online.

Why wouldn't being incredibly good at handling code and reaching the goals there extrapolate to other cognitive disciplines?

And it didn't even start with code, but just from being incredibly accurate and precise at predicting the next token. From that emerged being incredibly good at handling code, and being incredibly good at finding counterexamples for major open mathematical problems.

The thing that these agentic systems are getting incredibly good at is steering outcomes, that is to make the world behave in a way that fits their objective. We had that with the Go AI on a game board, now with code on a computer and with mathematics in an abstract world determined by axioms.

And then people just say "Ah, because sama said we should Pause this means that this is it, the bubble is popping". I wish there was a real, strong argument for why ASI will not be achieved by LLMs, and why it will never be able to steer outcomes in the real world. But so far the disciplines just keep falling as LLMs are scaled further, and there seems to be no limit in sight.

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#97

Post by swingandamiss »

mofeien wrote: post #95
swingandamiss wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you want the Chinese to stop as well?

Of course

What's your plan on when you successfully limit western AI but have no control over China and they continue to march forward?

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#98

Post by copperx »

mofeien wrote: post #96
copperx wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs are incredibly good at handling code. But you're extrapolating their capabilities just because their handling of code is so shockingly good (compared to what we had before). I think AGI will be eventually achieved, but it will not come from an LLM, and it will not be anytime soon. I'll worry when a more promising architecture comes online.

Why wouldn't being incredibly good at handling code and reaching the goals there extrapolate to other cognitive disciplines? And it didn't even start with code, but just from being incredibly accurate and precise at predicting the next token. From that emerged being incredibly good at handling code, and being incredibly good at finding counterexamples for major open mathematical problems. The thing that these agentic…

I guess we'll see, but odds are that reality will reel you back in.

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#99

Post by copperx »

ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #94
beloch wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask for regulation. If progress is coming easy and fast and you're worried about the danger your product poses, you should also be worried about the danger your competitors' products pose. So, you reach out to governments and ask for rules to constrain and slow things down for everyone , so that your company isn't put at a disadvantage for being cautious.

Are you kidding? They've been asking for regulation for years! Altman testified to the Senate in 2023. HN loves calling this hype, eg. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36034314 . They just put this out two days ago: https://openai.com/index/ai-policy-window/ . If this would move the needle for you, it should have moved a long time ago.

AI is reaching religious levels of fanaticism, which I find highly disturbing.

Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees

#100

Post by ToValueFunfetti »

copperx wrote: post #99
ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you kidding? They've been asking for regulation for years! Altman testified to the Senate in 2023. HN loves calling this hype, eg. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36034314 . They just put this out two days ago: https://openai.com/index/ai-policy-window/ . If this would move the needle for you, it should have moved a long time ago.

AI is reaching religious levels of fanaticism, which I find highly disturbing.

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