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Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

bbc.com

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Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#591

Post by autoexec »

ericmay wrote: post #556
autoexec wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran wasn't allowing inspections, That isn't what the International Atomic Energy Agency said https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-... At least before Trump started playing games Iran was in compliance

Sorry I can't view the article b/c of the paywall also because Jeff Bezos sucks. But the Iranians aren't stupid, they just moved the research to "military sites" and then denied access. Sometimes I think the UN and some of these agencies are run by people who grew up in very manicured gardens with their fancy law degrees and filet mignon and can't use their imagination to understand how someone might deceive them lol…

> why do we need to have some sort of deal in the first place? Why does Iran of all countries need to have this special treatment where they threaten to build nuclear weapons unless we all do or give them something.

Iran signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty ages ago which put certain limits on what they could do. Other countries had growing concerns that Iran wasn't living up to that treaty, and those violations (plus some other stuff) resulted in a bunch of sanctions being placed on Iran.

Eventually Iran got a president who requested an international agreement that would ease both the sanctions Iran was under and the fears other countries had over their nuclear program. After lots and lots of negotiations they settled on the Joint Plan of Action which did a pretty good job.

I don't think Iran was being treated as all that special here and we'd see similar events play out if any country under the NPT started building up its nuclear program, especially if other countries thought that country was unstable/terroristy enough that the idea of them having a bunch of nukes was extra scary AND they also felt an agreement could be reached that would help make them less frightened.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#592

Post by ericmay »

etchalon wrote: post #579
ericmay wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We didn't just do it by "accident". We did it through incompetence. Ok and they did theirs with malicious and clear purpose. Yikes! > This wasn't the unfortunate result of a necessary attack on a valid target. This was the result of stupidity. No. Iran and their militant proxies know that we don't attack civilian targets on purpose. That's why they set up facilities, military equipment, or hide combatants behind ch…

It was admitted incompetence in target selection, potentially due to misuse of AI, acting on out of date intelligence. This has been heavily reported on and no counter-story has been proffered. You introduced a whataboutalism. I pointed out whataboutalisms are ridiculous when it comes to dead children. The frustrating part of all of this is we had a working agreement with Iran, with numerous mechanisms to ensure comp…

> You introduced a whataboutalism. I pointed out whataboutalisms are ridiculous when it comes to dead children.

Sure, but you should be talking Iran killing people since they killed many more and did so on purpose instead of on accident. You keep using the term incompetence because you have an axe to grind. Actions matter but intentions get a say too.

> You introduced a whataboutalism.

Well I'm certainly not going to, where I see it happen, let people just dance around talking about US "incompetence" and ignoring Iranian purposeful murder as they try to denigrate my country for their own political aims. These people shouldn't be your political football and you should be more focused on Iranian action.

> The frustrating part of all of this is we had a working agreement with Iran

Why do they need a special snowflake agreement else they build nuclear weapons? Weren't they signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty? Should other countries start building nuclear weapons so they can get some sort of concession from the United States? Why does the US have to give these concessions and not the entire world since it's in everyone's interest that we don't have every country on the planet building nuclear fucking bombs and maybe using them? Did we forget we don't want that or something?

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#593

Post by alephnerd »

inglor_cz wrote: post #240
alephnerd wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Will this bring oil prices down in Europe ... This will not help Asia This hurts Europe more than Asia. The UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, and others are similarly opposed to the Houthis having conducted airstrikes on the Houthis (eg. 2025) as well as helping target them directly or indirectly. And a large portion of global shipping is owned by Greek conglomerates - a country that is a close ally of Israe…

A Pakistan-Iran war was not on my bingo card.

Pakistan and Iran fought a skirmish in December 2024 [0] that was quickly deescalated, but Pakistan is increasingly misaligned with the IRGC as it's working closer with Iran's political leadership [1].

I don't expect a war to happen, but Iran will double down support for Afghanistan as well as lay the red carpet for India to continue operating in the country.

[0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cro...

[1] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati...

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#594

Post by ericmay »

mmooss wrote: post #590
ericmay wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When are you talking about and what is that based on? It was the US that withdrew; the other countries continued. US intelligence concluded that Iran had no nuclear weapons program (or maybe, no active one; I don't recall). They'd just move the research to clandestine or military facilities. They're not stupid. Countries like Iran know how to play these games and they use our own legal mechanisms against us all the…

It's not based on anything, then. > we shouldn't have to have a JCPOA in the first place, they can just not pursue nuclear weapons like almost every other country on the planet. Other countries do pursue and have nuclear weapons. Iran has not yet created a full nuclear weapons program - or hadn't before the current war. Iran, being under constant threat from the US and Israel, with open calls to attack Iran for decad…

> It's not based on anything, then.

Don't care then. The premise of having to have the agreement in the first place is faulty, so arguments about who was following it and in what sneaky way are simply irrelevant.

> Other countries do pursue and have nuclear weapons.

So should more countries get them then? Are you against nuclear non-proliferation? If you want more countries to get them let's start with Israel and Saudi Arabia, then move to South Korea and Japan, and let's load them up in the Baltic states too so Russia doesn't think twice.

> Iran has not yet created a full nuclear weapons program -

Then what was the point of the JCPOA?

> or hadn't before the current war.

They hadn't as the war is going on either just to be clear. There seems to be this cargo culted comment that they're going to have one now. They won't. We will bomb it no matter what.

> Iran, being under constant threat from the US and Israel, with open calls to attack Iran for decades; seeing two neighbors recently deposed by the US (Iraq and Afghanistan); and having had their own government deposed and replaced by a US-friendly one (Mosaddegh in 1953); under constant threat from neighbors and the region (Iraq invaded in the 1980s, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states are open enemies, Israel of course); may believe that they need nuclear weapons to survive.

Right, everyone is bad here but poor lil ole' Iran. The US was in Afghanistan after Bin Laden. It was in Iraq after Saddam. The whole world, despite Iranian delusions of grandeur, doesn't revolve around them. Other countries are also under constant threat from Iran (US, Israel, Gulf States, more) as they fund militants, murder people, load up on missiles and drones and fire them indiscriminately, and try to build nuclear bombs.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#595

Post by fwip »

mrala wrote: post #310
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarkha > "God is great, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam"

This is also mentioned in the article that you linked: > In April 2016, during UN-brokered peace talks in Kuwait, Houthi representatives gave the United States a "sincere apology" for the "Death to America" slogan, claiming that the slogan was used for "domestic consumption as a means to attract support in the streets and create a common cause between their supporters to keep them united." > During the Red Sea crisis…

> A new Houthi slogan appeared after the group's re-designation as a terrorist organisation: "America is the mother of terrorism" set on a red background.

Well, they're not wrong.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#596

Post by ericmay »

autoexec wrote: post #591
ericmay wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry I can't view the article b/c of the paywall also because Jeff Bezos sucks. But the Iranians aren't stupid, they just moved the research to "military sites" and then denied access. Sometimes I think the UN and some of these agencies are run by people who grew up in very manicured gardens with their fancy law degrees and filet mignon and can't use their imagination to understand how someone might deceive them lol…

> why do we need to have some sort of deal in the first place? Why does Iran of all countries need to have this special treatment where they threaten to build nuclear weapons unless we all do or give them something. Iran signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty ages ago which put certain limits on what they could do. Other countries had growing concerns that Iran wasn't living up to that treaty, and those violations (plus…

Sorry I do not follow this line of reasoning at all. Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Then they started a nuclear program, then they wanted some sort of special treaty, and yet they aren't being treated specially or differently than other countries?

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#597

Post by Oranguru »

ericmay wrote: post #413
anon7725 wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We have seen what happened with Venezuela, but at least Mexico and Canada can somewhat keep a lid on it. Which is above and beyond what they owe the rest of us since they did not create that problem. The United States government is ideological in a way that westerners don't really understand. Trump is too via his desires regarding Greenland and Canada but the American system isn't too alien to our own views - they p…

Bad argument for many reasons (and lazy). But Maduro was a criminal, supported Russia evading US and EU sanctions, and his gang and their disastrous economic policies resulted in around 1/3rd of Venezuelans leaving the country resulting in a humanitarian disaster.

Nevertheless, Venezuela remains in the same situation as before. Aside from Maduro, the corrupt and criminal government remains intact, the head of state handpicked by the US president, no public elections in sight. There has been no political change whatsoever apart from the takeover of oil fields.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#598

Post by m4rtink »

ericmay wrote: post #407
qlte wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is over simplified to the point of being misleading/wrong. Russia was the legal successor of the USSR for purposes of diplomatic continuity, but the other Soviet successor states divided portions of the Soviet military/equipment, split Soviet debt obligations, etc on a case by case basis.

Nuclear weapons are a special case though. Plus Ukraine didn't have the ability to use them anyway without launch codes as far as I'm aware.

Oh, those magical "Nuclear launch codes" - that turned out to be set to 0000 in the US or used a bike key in the Brtisih case ? Turns out being able to actually use the weapon in an emergency tops the codes not working.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#599

Post by ericmay »

nemomarx wrote: post #358
ericmay wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anchoring on this deal is a waste of time. We shouldn't have had to have a deal in the first place. They could just join other responsible countries like, idk, Vietnam, Brazil, and hmmm who else, Switzerland! in not pursuing nuclear weapons. > We could have kept that status quo going Like the last time the Houthis disrupted shipping? Or when Iran launched and supported attacks on Israel, plus continued disruption in…

I don't recall the houthis disrupting shipping before 2018. The status quo under before that point was fine for the global economy and for the US. If it wasn't fine for Israel, that's a problem for their own military to deal with, ideally without US backing that drags other countries into the issue. Good luck with non proliferation but I think the very obvious "we can attack and invade countries without nukes but can…

> Good luck with non proliferation

Hey I mean this is your problem too, wherever you are from. You seem a little nonchalant about nuclear proliferation which most consider to be a rather serious matter because of the potential for real nuclear war or nuclear attacks.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#600

Post by Ydarbleoj »

aliasxneo wrote: post #387
Ydarbleoj wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to be clear, everything is political - whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

There's a far cry between someone showing off some weird contraption they hacked together versus posting about the Houthi's military campaign. If you can't see that, then I'm not sure what else to say.

What you're suggesting is that it's a spectrum and I agree. I don't know what to tell you.
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