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Feeling Sad about AI

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Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#241

Post by palmotea »

simonw wrote: post #239
palmotea wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I meant is that it's not being built to solve any problem most people actually have. It's not like a building that's being built become some person needs shelter. It's more like some guy building a howitzer and just firing it randomly (hitting homes and people), just because he can and thinks it's cool and maybe can make some money selling tickets. After all, it was inevitable someone was going to built a howitz…

> What I meant is that it's not being built to solve any problem most people actually have. How confident are you in that? ChatGPT has over a billion monthly active users now ( https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-app-hits-1-billio... ), I expect at least some of those users are using it to help solve problems they have.

> How confident are you in that? ChatGPT has over a billion monthly active users now (https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-app-hits-1-billio...), I expect at least some of those users are using it to help solve problems they have.

Very, because you missed my point entirely. I said built not used. Analogies could be made to social media and tobacco, which have also been very popular.

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#242

Post by simonw »

palmotea wrote: post #241
simonw wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I meant is that it's not being built to solve any problem most people actually have. How confident are you in that? ChatGPT has over a billion monthly active users now ( https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-app-hits-1-billio... ), I expect at least some of those users are using it to help solve problems they have.

> How confident are you in that? ChatGPT has over a billion monthly active users now ( https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-app-hits-1-billio ...), I expect at least some of those users are using it to help solve problems they have. Very, because you missed my point entirely. I said built not used . Analogies could be made to social media and tobacco, which have also been very popular.

You think those billion people are all addicted to having a made-up friend?

I think it's being built to solve problems they have. OpenAI shut down GPT-4o because it leaned too hard into getting people addicted to it.

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#243

Post by willchis »

mike_hearn wrote: post #231
willchis wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep mentioning to people that last winter parts of the arctic were 10C hotter than the average for the last 100 years and I get blank looks.

Where did you get that from? This must be relying on picking very specific parts of the Arctic. This year has not been unusual for the Arctic, in fact, it was colder than the normally cited average (1958-2002). Take a look, see for yourself: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php It didn't go above freezing this year, which is unusual (actually I think it may be the first time on record!) Sea ice extent is a fai…

Go to your first link, click on 2025 and look at the winter values (Nov/Dec).

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#244

Post by notpachet »

mike_hearn wrote: post #231
willchis wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep mentioning to people that last winter parts of the arctic were 10C hotter than the average for the last 100 years and I get blank looks.

Where did you get that from? This must be relying on picking very specific parts of the Arctic. This year has not been unusual for the Arctic, in fact, it was colder than the normally cited average (1958-2002). Take a look, see for yourself: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php It didn't go above freezing this year, which is unusual (actually I think it may be the first time on record!) Sea ice extent is a fai…

Not the parent, but pointing out a couple of problems in your analysis:

First, arctic temperatures: this is a widely misunderstood point. Notice that in the graph, the non-summer months are noticeably warmer. The summer months are going to be effectively capped at around 0 degrees until all the ice is gone, so holding up this graph and saying "look, the temperature never got above freezing!" is misleading, because the "warming" is actually happening as a function of melting ice, not air temperature.

Sea ice extent: the last 18 years were the lowest 18 minimums on record. Also, ice extent != ice volume. March 2026 recorded a record-low ice volume. An extent chart reads the same regardless of whether the underlying ice is thin or thick.

Greenland mass balance: here you're just plain wrong. You linked to the surface mass balance page, in other words, snowfall minus surface melt + runoff. This does not account for glacial calving and basal melt. The page you linked says this directly. Total mass balance is a grimmer picture: an average loss of about 252 km³ of water per year over 2003-2025, contributing 0.69 mm/yr to sea level rise.

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#245

Post by Xenoamorphous »

reenorap wrote: post #48

I feel the opposite of sad, I am very very excited. I love programming and I love technology, but the stuff I'm doing now is beyond what I could not do on my own, and now I'm spending a few hours building complete end-to-end stuff. This is the golden age for builders. I created a fully working house simulator, I made a math test creator for my kids, I fixed up some other side projects that I had and added observabili…

I think the “I’m sad” camp are mainly worried about their livelihood. You’re having fun but all of those things you listed are mere hobbies that won’t generate any money, particularly in a world where the next guy can spin up some AI agent, point to whatever you built and ask it “build me this”.

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#246

Post by willchis »

willchis wrote: post #243
mike_hearn wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did you get that from? This must be relying on picking very specific parts of the Arctic. This year has not been unusual for the Arctic, in fact, it was colder than the normally cited average (1958-2002). Take a look, see for yourself: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php It didn't go above freezing this year, which is unusual (actually I think it may be the first time on record!) Sea ice extent is a fai…

Go to your first link, click on 2025 and look at the winter values (Nov/Dec).

Also just look at the first months of 2026 in the link you shared - the average temperatures are up to 15C higher in March!

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#247

Post by mike_hearn »

willchis wrote: post #243
mike_hearn wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did you get that from? This must be relying on picking very specific parts of the Arctic. This year has not been unusual for the Arctic, in fact, it was colder than the normally cited average (1958-2002). Take a look, see for yourself: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php It didn't go above freezing this year, which is unusual (actually I think it may be the first time on record!) Sea ice extent is a fai…

Go to your first link, click on 2025 and look at the winter values (Nov/Dec).

OK, I see where you are getting it from now.

It's quite misleading to take a two week period and describe it as "last winter". No wonder people give blank looks, it was a transient spike that means nothing. The idea everyone should feel sad is based on arguments about long term averages.

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#248

Post by willchis »

notpachet wrote: post #244
mike_hearn wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did you get that from? This must be relying on picking very specific parts of the Arctic. This year has not been unusual for the Arctic, in fact, it was colder than the normally cited average (1958-2002). Take a look, see for yourself: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php It didn't go above freezing this year, which is unusual (actually I think it may be the first time on record!) Sea ice extent is a fai…

Not the parent, but pointing out a couple of problems in your analysis: First, arctic temperatures: this is a widely misunderstood point. Notice that in the graph, the non-summer months are noticeably warmer. The summer months are going to be effectively capped at around 0 degrees until all the ice is gone, so holding up this graph and saying "look, the temperature never got above freezing!" is misleading, because th…

This is why we're so screwed. People can't even read graphs. They'll stand outside in smoke-filled scorching summer heat and say "but Joe Rogan says the earth is in a cooling cycle".

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#249

Post by mike_hearn »

willchis wrote: post #246
willchis wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go to your first link, click on 2025 and look at the winter values (Nov/Dec).

Also just look at the first months of 2026 in the link you shared - the average temperatures are up to 15C higher in March!

But they were almost exactly average in February. You're reading far too much into noise. The idea of a climate crisis is built on arguments about trends that span hundreds of years, not two weeks.

Re: Feeling Sad about AI

#250

Post by willchis »

mike_hearn wrote: post #231
willchis wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep mentioning to people that last winter parts of the arctic were 10C hotter than the average for the last 100 years and I get blank looks.

Where did you get that from? This must be relying on picking very specific parts of the Arctic. This year has not been unusual for the Arctic, in fact, it was colder than the normally cited average (1958-2002). Take a look, see for yourself: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php It didn't go above freezing this year, which is unusual (actually I think it may be the first time on record!) Sea ice extent is a fai…

How is this for a long term trend? Using your own sources: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.php
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