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Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

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Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#551

Post by kadoban »

LarsKrimi wrote: post #464
kadoban wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The context of this is which party China would prefer to win the midterms. The dems winning would distract Trump from being able to fuck up the rest of the world a bit. My bet would be that China doesn't care much either way, they win regardless.

We agree that China won't care long term. They cannot lose in the current setup In my view the worst that can happen for China is that Trump gets limited by anything. He's hurting US relations more than he's hurting China short or long-term. Relations take longer to build than trade "Don't interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake"

> "Don't interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake"

Yeah, that's the obvious answer, but I suspect there's a point where if the US fucks things up too quickly and too messily, there's fewer customers for China's crap and/or the random throws of monkey shit drag China into messes they don't feel like dealing with.

Slow erosion of the US's global power is likely better for them than an implosion that might cause collatoral damage.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#552

Post by bluegatty »

throwaway85825 wrote: post #497
autoexec wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that's true, it's insane that it worked. It should be obvious to not take orders from twitter. There's a chain of command for a reason and random people on social media are no part of it. Sounds like the opposition forces would have to be so stupid that any number of Looney Tunes style tricks would have worked. Maybe next they can send out a rabbit in a dress to make opposition fall in love with it.

This belies a fundamental misunderstanding of Yemeni society. Arab political structure is based on tribal loyalty. Leaders of tribes pledge allegiance to other tribes or coalitions of tribes. They're not part of the same command structure because such a thing does not exist. Usually instead of being defeated tribal loyalties change with the political winds and tribe leaders neogtioate with other leaders. Twitter is a…

While that's helpful and insightful, it's not hugely the issue.

The military units are not very well organized, they don't have clear and stringent command, control and communications.

They understood a regional commander to be fleeing, units fell back.

This is kind of stuff is absolutely as old as time, and it's #1 rule in conflict aka deception.

The parallel would be reproducing a General's order to withdraw - meaning the command would have legitimacy among troops and junior officers, believing their own commanders were just out of the loop.

And yes - their command structure will be de facto organized along social lines, but it's more descriptive.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#553

Post by burnt-resistor »

And the Saudis asked the US to strike the Houthis because they don't trust the leadership of their own officers, but the US said "no". MbS is furious with the Trump crime family as a result. (While the Saudis have tons of US equipment but it's mostly a show force because they're unable to employ it effectively.)

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#554

Post by ericmay »

ndiddy wrote: post #518
ericmay wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran clearly has the capability to flatten every major hospital and university and desalination plant in Israel, like Israel has done in Gaza, but they don't. I'm not supportive of Israel having nuclear weapons, but Iran won't do something like this because the Israelis might nuke them. That doesn't excuse Iran also building nuclear weapons. Neither should have them, in my view. Iran also supports the militants tha…

> I'm not supportive of Israel having nuclear weapons, but Iran won't do something like this because the Israelis might nuke them. You've said elsewhere in this thread that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and that a global oil crisis is worth preventing that from happening. You've referred to the Iranian government as a "deranged death cult". Here you're saying that even though Iran already has the capability of…

> they won't do it because they're rational actors who understand mutually assured destruction

It's both. The Iranians are rational within their own cultural understanding of what rational actions are. It's not rational, for example, for them to build nuclear weapons, deprive their people of economic prosperity, kill thousands of protestors, fund militant groups spreading terrorism and murder throughout the region, yet they do it anyway.

You can be simultaneously "rational" in some ways and "irrational" in others. Their general activities are irrational, but that doesn't mean they see the point in launching indiscriminate missiles at Israel only to be on the receiving end of a nuclear weapon. Why not wait until you have dozens and then go for it and launch one at Europe (don't forget, despite European politicians kissing the toes of Iran out of fear and cultural decline that Iran still hates Europe too) or the US too?

> could there be other reasons for Iran to pursue nuclear weapons (i.e. sovereignty and national security)?

Why do you assume the other reasons are for peaceful purposes? Can you think of some malicious purposes that Iran might acquire a nuclear weapon for?

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#555

Post by kelipso »

WarmWash wrote: post #363
mmooss wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Attempts to claim that your side is somehow superior and not subject to the same human evils as the other side are never true, and just encourage your own people to commit evil - they are justified and the other side is evil, of course. Somehow everyone thinks that, which should tell you something about the truth of it. But of course for your side, it's actually true! One classic method is to try to tie it to scriptu…

I don't have a side, especially as an atheist. I mean, we have modern day Islamic societies that are still dragging out homosexuals and stoning them, and still putting women in bags as property. If that was what I needed to defend with a straight face, I also would be pretty desperate to shift the focus back a thousand or so years.

You say this while defending a country that is systematically killing children and conducting a genocide.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#556

Post by ericmay »

autoexec wrote: post #441
ericmay wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that's a big IF. Iran wasn't allowing inspections, also we shouldn't need a special deal with Iran or else they build nuclear bombs and try to kill people. But what I meant was that if a weapon was used we'd be able to identify the signature of the material used and pinpoint the exact location on earth that it came from. In other words, if Russia "easily" (again that's an another feather in the cap agains the JC…

> Iran wasn't allowing inspections, That isn't what the International Atomic Energy Agency said https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-... At least before Trump started playing games Iran was in compliance

Sorry I can't view the article b/c of the paywall also because Jeff Bezos sucks.

But the Iranians aren't stupid, they just moved the research to "military sites" and then denied access. Sometimes I think the UN and some of these agencies are run by people who grew up in very manicured gardens with their fancy law degrees and filet mignon and can't use their imagination to understand how someone might deceive them lol.

But this still begs the question - why do we need to have some sort of deal in the first place? Why does Iran of all countries need to have this special treatment where they threaten to build nuclear weapons unless we all do or give them something. Other countries don't do that.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#557

Post by kelipso »

saxonww wrote: post #436
lenkite wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Women, gays and infidels are pubished by Houthi police. The EU & US don't have ANY issues supporting and financing governments that punish gays and infidels. Hint: New Syrian government, Saudi government (which is also famous for publicly beheading gays) So why not accept the Houthis too ? Otherwise, my apologies, your stance just sounds like the usual disgusting Western sanctimonious hypocrisy.

What would you expect instead? I think the US supports the Saudis because they are the primary competitor to Iran in the middle east. But no one (?) in the middle east has great support for women, gays, or infidels. I think you're right that strategic / economic interests have outweighed cultural issues / human rights.

Strategic / economic interests have always outweighed cultural issues / human rights. The women, gays, infidel line is purely to get political support or deflect political criticism from a portion of the population.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#558

Post by DANmode »

Georgelemental wrote: post #523
bhouston wrote: post #151

The Houthis created a fake audio of a major Yemeni commander telling his troops to retreat which was subsequently amplified on Twitter/X, telegram, etc. Apparently, this helped the Houthis advance quickly as the opposition forces were in disarray. https://x.com/BashaReport/status/2097862335494795579

This is why you should always sign orders with your public key smh

It’s actually embarrassing the industry haven’t implemented optional signing into everything with a text box,

with the press of a USB key or other device into/onto what you’re using.

This can be used to verify consistent identities for the cost of an AirTag or less - but without mandating it as a government-involved thing, which is most of the holdup.

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#559

Post by scheme271 »

spwa4 wrote: post #248
jonplackett wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saudi Arabia who they’re fighting against by proxy, and who we sell lots of bombs to, and are soon going to help get nuclear technology, not so great either. https://www.humandignitytrust.org/country-profile/saudi-arab...

Just so it's clear that you're trying to cause confusion: these are light water reactors that cannot in any way shape or form be used to make bombs. Slightly harder to design and build. Much cheaper to run. Excellent for power. Bad for bombs. And, yes, just to get ahead of your next question: the US (and Europe and Russia and China) have offered to help Iran create these. Explaining it to them. Send people and engine…

Iran had a pretty strict P5 agreement under Obama that would have prevented Iran getting nukes for sanctions relief and other benefits. For some reason, a president decided to toss it for no apparent benefit.

Trump literally said a day or two ago that if Iran had nukes, he'd treat them a lot nicer and would cozy up to them like with China, Russia, and North Korea. Given that what government wouldn't serious consider obtaining nukes if only as a matter of survival?

Re: Houthis 'take control' of key island in global shipping route

#560

Post by watwut »

galangalalgol wrote: post #88
watwut wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just dont think these guy are even capable to plan that much.

If you think so little of them, then imagine what the people who pay $5M for a meal with him can convince him to do. Or what people who pay his son-in-law/iran-negotiator 25M a year can call and ask him to do.

From my observations, it seems to be kind of hit and miss. Sometimes they trade, he takes money amd do what was asked. Other times, he takes money and dont do what was asked.

We dont have to imagine this. We kind of see both variants in the open.

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