61–70 of 102 posts
Sam also said Astra was AGI and he's notoriously honest. This is just their way of saying they're officially switching from providing AI to using the AI to compete with their customers, a la Navier-Stokes drama.
The big psyop/trick is that "AI development has to slow down" and not that we hit limits with the technology or the technology is immature. Either way it's a win-win for whoever sells that message because you make the makers and the warners the center of attention. And when they say "we are considering slowing down" they mean "if we get enough money to slow down we'll do it". And of course they never want you to thin…
Why do you on HN want AI to slow down (mainly OpenAI and Anthropic from what I see in the comments)? What's the driving force behind your opinions on this?
"The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear. No other human activity poses this level of danger." - https://x.com/hilbertspaess/status/2097476196791709843#m "Development of superhuman mach…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is a convenient time, just as coding capability seems to reach the upper end of the S curve.
HN comments are just on a different planet lately lol
Serious question - I want serious responses pls ty.
> OpenAI is considering slowing down the development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence, and the ChatGPT maker’s Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman is hoping that other AI companies will do the same. They won't. There is no slowing down this development anytime soon and no one will slow down for someone else to surpass them.
Of course there is a possibility to slow down. - 1386 employees of frontier labs called for it - lawmakers are calling for it - employees are quitting in protest All it needs is coordination to regulate the pause
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Humans not dying would be an excellent feature for the future to have. Not a hard requirement though, we'll see if there are some story points left in the sprint.
I keep reading about AI killing all humans but I have yet to see a practical scenario where that happens. Somehow everyone is scared of that but nobody can explain exactly how that would happen?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
? What world are you living on.
Let me ask you, have you noticed that all the major labs are releasing models very similar in gains and performance? How do you explain that other than juicing the max out of the current architecture and processes.
1. What are we actually talking about, slowing development or slowing public release? I can't imagine the the US is keen to slow actual development when we have adversarial state-backed labs continuing development. Seems to me that this is a global pact or it's nothing. Stopping a single lab, even if it's the current leader, won't put the genie back in the bottle.
2. Unless they stop actual advancement, isn't the risk essentially identical? At this point, it's an arms race between the lab and its own model. I don't think it far fetched to think that it might successfully exfiltrate its weights, for example.
3. There are going to be factions who don't want to stop. Should we worry about them defecting to other labs or other countries?
With other countries and open source, not to mention all the other companies, Open AI choosing to pause development wont change the course. Only OpenAI will lose.
Unless the secret is that no amount of compute or data can progress things any further because we have already reached the limit for what predicting the next token can do. Most of the advancements lately have been on the agentic side of things.
The massive amount of health, science and math problems being solved by AI has largely not materialized yet. Is this a sign the model capability has been over sold?
There are economic consequences to this as well because the data center build out has been a kind of circular financing. This has caused all kinds of macro economic impacts from increased prices to even the Treasury market itself having to compete with debt issued for the build out. No one knows what will happen once the data center build out stops, or if the yen carry trade continues unwinding, or if Treasury yields have to keep rising to compete with debt issued by the "Mag 7".
Once they stop spending in the current circular arrangement, then the profits that exist on paper disappear, and the bubble could pop.
So really for every reason, OpenAI cant really slow development. Unless there is a kind of Moores law for what predicting the next token can achieve.
When the Chinese model drops that tops a paused Anthropic and OpenAI in all benchmarks how low will their valuations go?
It remains to be seen whether the Chinese AI labs actually are capable of improving on their own or if they just distilled the US frontier models.