When the Chinese model drops that tops a paused Anthropic and OpenAI in all benchmarks how low will their valuations go?
OpenAI will release the multiple-north-star bench and get 99%.
OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
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Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
They will if it becomes a political issue that causes regulation, which is looking likely.
Geopolitics gets in the way. It is a race between America and China. There's no way to know what is "safe enough", so you might as well go as fast as technology will allow, and be on the watch out for negative things you can predict specifically and then adapt so as to minimize net negatives.
The AI race is caused and being sustained by American tech companies. China is an excuse to keep it going.
Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#23I, too, consider pausing the work on the Grand Unified Theory of physics. It is too dangerous for humanity.
Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#24> OpenAI is considering slowing down the development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence, and the ChatGPT maker’s Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman is hoping that other AI companies will do the same. They won't. There is no slowing down this development anytime soon and no one will slow down for someone else to surpass them.
Of course there is a possibility to slow down. - 1386 employees of frontier labs called for it - lawmakers are calling for it - employees are quitting in protest All it needs is coordination to regulate the pause
I would add that the public is increasingly concerned about AI progress, which will put a growing pressure on lawmakers.
Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#25Why do you on HN want AI to slow down (mainly OpenAI and Anthropic from what I see in the comments)? What's the driving force behind your opinions on this?
Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
Geopolitics gets in the way. It is a race between America and China. There's no way to know what is "safe enough", so you might as well go as fast as technology will allow, and be on the watch out for negative things you can predict specifically and then adapt so as to minimize net negatives.
It doesn't have to be a race, that's just the way we have been treating it so far. There have been examples in the past of civilization ending technology that has been redirected from being a death race (chemical, biological, and nuclear arms in particular.)
Not sure nuclear arms is a great example. There are more countries with nuclear weapons now than in 1970. India, Pakistan, and North Korea have all joined the nuclear club since then. The SALT and START treaties are no longer in effect.
Perhaps CFCs (Montreal Treaty) is a better example of international cooperation to solve a potential extinction-level event, though it was never a "race" in the same sense.
Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#27> OpenAI is considering slowing down the development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence, and the ChatGPT maker’s Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman is hoping that other AI companies will do the same. They won't. There is no slowing down this development anytime soon and no one will slow down for someone else to surpass them.
Of course there is a possibility to slow down. - 1386 employees of frontier labs called for it - lawmakers are calling for it - employees are quitting in protest All it needs is coordination to regulate the pause
there is no chance, given the strategic implications for war and economics alone, that governments and other private entities are going to stop pursuing this at a breakneck pace
Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#28Wonder if it'll last longer than Anthropic's pause https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48403827
Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#29“I don’t have anything to deceive you on, of course I’m not deceiving you. I’m engaging with you as a human being. Why would I deceive you? There’s no… no reason for me to do that.”
https://xcancel.com/cocktailpeanut/status/209733229184439951...
Re: OpenAI considers slowing advanced AI development, Sam Altman tells employees
#30After eating his 65th hot dog, Joey Chestnut reassures Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest organizers he will stop at 66 to ensure they don’t run out of hot dogs
It is a convenient time, just as coding capability seems to reach the upper end of the S curve.