Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't really want to be just sitting in my car tapping my knees while the car drives for me.
I'd rather these guys just focus on building a Euro spec model of the R3 and getting it over here.
Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
91–100 of 127 posts
Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
> So far Tesla is the only company remotely close to unsupervised self-driving that doesn't add $1000s to the BoM cost of the car. What makes you think it doesn't? All those cameras, the expensive chips and cooling for them, and redundancy for all the systems don't come free.
For a Tesla, the estimates are around $2K. For a Waymo, the same estimates are ~$25K (down from $125K!!!). There's not a clear timeline for Waymo-style kit at a price consumers can afford and in a form factor they'd accept. (FWIW, the business story for Waymo has never been about its hardware making its way to consumers. It's always been about whether Waymo continues to run its own taxi service or leases out hardware…
Teslas also require a couple of OoMs more interventions driving the same distance than Waymos.
Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#93> Rivian says it will charge $49.99 a month, or $2,500 up front, versus Tesla’s $99 per month for its rival system, which is somewhat misleadingly called Full Self-Driving (Supervised), or FSD. Mercedes, meanwhile, plans to charge $3,950 for a three-year subscription for the forthcoming MB.Drive Assist Pro If and when FSD systems become a reality and are safer than human drivers, I would expect that regulators will r…
I think given how far companies like XPeng are with their systems in China. This is more a question of "when" than "if" with the when part narrowed to a time range of perhaps 2027-2029. Xpeng seems to be planning for 2027. Not in the US of course but the rest of the world is a big place.
I expect that by the mid 2030s this will be widely used across most car markets in both L2 driver assist form and L4 style autonomous taxis active in most large cities on all continents. L4/L5 level driving for privately owned cars might trail that a bit but I think the technical arguments against that are rapidly evaporating as well. The arguments are increasingly about regulation, insurance, liability, etc. I think the Chinese are a bit more pragmatic on this front and more likely to just get this done domestically by the early 2030s and will be deploying this globally by the mid 2030s. The only question real question is whether the US and Europe will do that before or after them and whether that will be with their own tech or somebody else's.
Rivian seems to have all the right tech and strategy.
Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#94Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't really want to be just sitting in my car tapping my knees while the car drives for me. I'd rather these guys just focus on building a Euro spec model of the R3 and getting it over here.
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Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#95> Rivian says it will charge $49.99 a month, or $2,500 up front, versus Tesla’s $99 per month for its rival system, which is somewhat misleadingly called Full Self-Driving (Supervised), or FSD. Mercedes, meanwhile, plans to charge $3,950 for a three-year subscription for the forthcoming MB.Drive Assist Pro If and when FSD systems become a reality and are safer than human drivers, I would expect that regulators will r…
Hmm, that would mean forcing every car sold to be controllable remotely by a corporation. Sounds like something regulators would indeed do, but also, doesn’t sound too great for consumers, to put it mildly
Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#96"You are right, that was a red light!" At first I was skeptical, but reading the article, they do track object across video frames which for me it's the minimum a system like this should do. All previous FSD systems are just Fake self-driving. "That proprietary AI driver identifies features in images and point clouds, groups them into objects, and tracks them across frames, time-stamped to the millisecond to account…
>they do track object across video frames which for me it's the minimum a system like this should do. All previous FSD systems are just Fake self-driving.
I'm pretty sure Waymo does this. It's hard to imagine not using this information, it's basically 50% of what I do when driving (e.g. that kid that was running on the sidewalk suddenly disappeared from view in an unexpected way; I wonder if he's about to cut across the street, etc).
Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Waymo FSD is obviously more advanced than Tesla, but they will lose out to both Tesla and Rivian when it comes to manufacturing Maybe I misunderstand what you mean but the car itself (chassis, bodywork, drivetrain) is a commodity today. If you can turn any car into an autonomous car then the car isn't worth that much in the self-driving game. Tesla's stock is propped by the promise of becoming the first to achieve…
> If manufacturing ever became Google's Achilles heel, they can take a majority stake in something like VinFast and manufacture a Google car. They won't even have to (partially) buy any manufacturer - they can utilize contract manufacturers like Magna Steyr (which made the Jaguar I-Pace) or Foxconn, or lean on/expand partnerships like the one they have with Toyota.
I said that on the assumption that they want control and guarantees that Google's needs get serviced. Otherwise they can partner with any manufacturer to incorporate the tech, like they do on the software side. But they could be dropped at any time.
Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#98"You are right, that was a red light!" At first I was skeptical, but reading the article, they do track object across video frames which for me it's the minimum a system like this should do. All previous FSD systems are just Fake self-driving. "That proprietary AI driver identifies features in images and point clouds, groups them into objects, and tracks them across frames, time-stamped to the millisecond to account…
>they do track object across video frames which for me it's the minimum a system like this should do. All previous FSD systems are just Fake self-driving. I'm pretty sure Waymo does this. It's hard to imagine not using this information, it's basically 50% of what I do when driving (e.g. that kid that was running on the sidewalk suddenly disappeared from view in an unexpected way; I wonder if he's about to cut across…
I wander what it does for different objects.
Oups a ball crossed the street 15m ahead. Let's slowdown to a crawl and watch for the kid is what a human would do.
I suppose they may have special cased the ball case.
Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#99Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't really want to be just sitting in my car tapping my knees while the car drives for me. I'd rather these guys just focus on building a Euro spec model of the R3 and getting it over here.
When autonomy is solved, they could put a bed or office or dining table in the car. But I agree, this halfway autonomy where you have to watch everything is kind of useless.
Re: Rivian's gambit for full autonomy
#100"You are right, that was a red light!" At first I was skeptical, but reading the article, they do track object across video frames which for me it's the minimum a system like this should do. All previous FSD systems are just Fake self-driving. "That proprietary AI driver identifies features in images and point clouds, groups them into objects, and tracks them across frames, time-stamped to the millisecond to account…
This is very basic for any self driving car system you can see on the road today or even 10 years ago.