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What will our economic future look like?

anthropic.com

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Re: What will our economic future look like?

#401

Post by bloppe »

ryandrake wrote: post #239
jurgenburgen wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would take a human with a 10% mistake rate but who can be held accountable, over an AI with a 0.1% mistake rate that is totally unaccountable for its mistakes. You would take those odds? 100x more deaths? I agree that AI _companies_ should be accountable for the software they produce but I’m not convinced you would go for a 90% chance of survival if you can choose 99.9%.

I guess if you're dead, then it ultimately doesn't matter if someone can be held accountable, although it might matter to your next-of-kin. But, yea, in general, it would take a huge (1000X or 10,000X) difference in expected outcome for me to trust something that is unaccountable . If the AI company was actually held accountable for its AI's mistakes, I'd definitely change my statement.

But what's the point of holding something accountable here? Creating an incentive for them to take your needs seriously? Why does an incentive matter if you already know that one has a superior expected outcome?

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#402

Post by WalterBright »

dgellow wrote: post #398
WalterBright wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true. For every medical condition, there are a very large number of treatment options, with a wide variety of efficacy, pain, and cost. For example, I bet you could enumerate plenty of weight loss options off the top of your head.

Let me know where I can find all that competition for surgery

A good doctor will present many options for you. I had hernia surgery a while ago. I went over the options with the surgeon, the varying surgical methods used, including doing nothing about it.

Medicine is not "if A then B".

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#403

Post by austhrow743 »

JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

Use technological gains to reduce costs while maintaining results hasn't been the historical rule for healthcare so I think you should say what makes this technological gain unique.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#404

Post by WalterBright »

nixon_why69 wrote: post #397
WalterBright wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cutting consumer prices by 70% is not "abusive". SO's market share never exceeded 90% and it declined during the years of the anti-trust trial. By cutting launch prices 90%, is SpaceX also an abusive monopoly?

Defending standard oil is an all-timer hot take. They only had 90% market share? In a commodity? SpaceX isn't a monopoly because they have domestic and international competition. Before they showed up, ULA was a deliberately constructed monopoly because Boeing and Lockheed didn't want to compete.

SpaceX has a 90% market share.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#405

Post by asdff »

pezezin wrote: post #395
chessucation wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

these days, i think most tasks come with significant administrative overhead as insurance companies want everything documented (and hospitals need to itemize everything to bill it). i looked at very similar data as anthropic (was a bit amusing to look at these side by side) with physical tasks being part of the equation much more prominently (across all jobs). if you're interested: https://largelabormodel.com/mirror?…

Not every country is like the US. My country has a public healthcare system; I never needed private insurance and never had to pay for a visit to the doctor.

Ironically, given the reputation of high costs and private care, that is how it is too in the US. It is just that you have to be broke, unemployed, or retired to be covered by the public single payer system. The clinic still needs to document what was done to get reimbursed by Medicaid.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#406

Post by chrisjj »

jdiff wrote: post #245
chrisjj wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

URL not responding here.

Hm, also not responding here. I don't think this thread is well-trafficked enough to have hugged it to death, but here's a PDF alternative link: https://milweesci.weebly.com/uploads/1/3/2/4/13247648/mannap...

Thanks!

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#407

Post by FrancisMoodie »

kqr wrote: post #396
dismalaf wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making everyone poor never made the world better.

Aren't "not rich" and "poor" very different things?

For rich people who want to uphold the status quo these two things are identical, sadly.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#408

Post by asdff »

Gud wrote: post #180
JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

It will bring down the prices for nursing and allow more people who previously couldn't afford health care to afford it, theoretically.

I'm not sure who even is priced out of healthcare considering if you are broke you get covered and if you are a little less broke you get subsidized care and if you aren't broke, then you finally pay up. It isn't really rooted in free market dynamics like you'd expect with theoretically falling labor prices because of stuff like ACA or medicaid covering the people who would have been more price sensitive.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#409

Post by nickpp »

kqr wrote: post #396
dismalaf wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making everyone poor never made the world better.

Aren't "not rich" and "poor" very different things?

Most people's definition of rich is "one dollar more than I have". Just look at laptop class's hate on the 1 percenters - which actually includes them.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#410

Post by asdff »

jdiff wrote: post #173
watwut wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moreover, the nurse is frustrated, because she lost whatever agency and autonomy she had before. Her job is now obey whay AI said instead of making decisions by herself.

Marshall Brain really nailed it back in 2003 with Manna. https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 AI leaves humans as the limbs of the machine, with less and less thinking or comprehension required on their part.

And the less people are required to think, the less they think, the less they are able to think.
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