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What will our economic future look like?

anthropic.com

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Re: What will our economic future look like?

#361

Post by wizardforhire »

daveguy wrote: post #326
throwaway13337 wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replace AI with 'company' and you realize that we're living in that world already. There's a reason it's called a Limited Liability Company. The whole point is to separate the company's liability from the individual that participates in it. For example, corporate financial liabilities of a company that is bankrupt. You would not sue the nurse that makes a mistake. You would sue the company she works for. And if that…

I don't think they meant the nurse would be responsible. The LLC would and should be fucked in that case.

And I think the apprehension can be summed with “good luck with that”

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#362

Post by chessucation »

pezezin wrote: post #312
JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

My dad is a retired nurse. Most of his work was giving shots, treating wounds, extracting blood, putting IV catheters, etc. In other words, physical tasks. How is an "AI agent" or LLM going to take care of that?

these days, i think most tasks come with significant administrative overhead as insurance companies want everything documented (and hospitals need to itemize everything to bill it).

i looked at very similar data as anthropic (was a bit amusing to look at these side by side) with physical tasks being part of the equation much more prominently (across all jobs).

if you're interested: https://largelabormodel.com/mirror?job=2221

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#363

Post by davidgay »

wizardforhire wrote: post #361
daveguy wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they meant the nurse would be responsible. The LLC would and should be fucked in that case.

And I think the apprehension can be summed with “good luck with that”

I could've sworn that malpractice insurance cost is viewed as one of the driver's of high health care costs, and that it's expensive precisely because medical lawsuit payouts are large...

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#364

Post by pixl97 »

bradfa wrote: post #344
pvab3 wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't imagine trying to be a teacher in 2026. I would have never written a single paper or problem set myself in HS and college.

Hand written exams are coming back into fashion. You get a pencil and the exam book. Nothing else. Show your work. Catching cheaters is still hard but it will keep honest people more honest.

>You get a pencil and the exam book. Nothing else. Show your work.

Back in my day this was the only way!

Well, scantron cards for testing became more common near the end of school.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#365

Post by pixl97 »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #110
barbazoo wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the root cause is people not having enough human connection. If we had families, friends, neighborhoods, communities where people know each other and care about each other it wouldn't make a difference what new tool someone brings to group. It's just a tool.

I think you nailed it. Before LLMs showed up on the scene, we had already broken society. (Thanks, Internet!)

Even before that 24 hour cable TV, talk radio, and TV deregulation were chipping away at society as quickly as they could manage. The internet took the intensity to 10.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#366

Post by AuthAuth »

pixl97 wrote: post #335
AuthAuth wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Marx's labour theory of value is only a theory of where profits come from and is largely rejected. Return on captial investment is not restricted to factory owners. All workers get a share of the surplus value and have the option to increase that by investing.

Sounds like you found a new way to write... "The law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."

Marx entire solution is that quote. Hes a quack but people still reference his 'theory'.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#368

Post by jryan49 »

jiggawatts wrote: post #316
josefritzishere wrote: post #39

So far LLMs seem to be a dead end technology. The work product is so poor that it can't effectively replace workers as advertised. If it was priced to margin it'd be more expensive than humans as well. It's objectively a failure.

OpenAI just solved a Millennium Prize Problem in a week . The AIs are already beyond human capability in some areas, and will be beyond human in all areas within single-digit years.

It's probably a good idea to note that it cost them 10-15 million dollars in tokens to do so.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#369

Post by nostrademons »

JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

Nurses do actually end up spending more time with patients, it's just that they spend more time with rich patients.

The actual, tangible form this is taking right now is concierge medicine, home health aids, private practice, etc. My wife's (very good) ob-gyn had enough of working in institutionalized medicine where she's paid about what a L4 FANG engineer makes and pretty much has to follow the script that the health-care system dictates, and quit. Now she does perimenopause consultations for FANG execs at $1200/hour.

My uphill neighbors are in their 90s. I think the wife was in VC or something back in the 70s and 80s. There's a steady stream of nurses and home health aids up to their property. Seems like they've got a full care team working out of their home.

Across industry and industry, we see the same pattern. The mass-market product gets cheaper and less labor intensive, at the expense of any human touch. Everybody displaced, if they're any good and wants to stay in the field, moves up-market to do custom professional services for rich people. They pay for it, because if you want people to do good work for you, you have to pay them more than they can get otherwise.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#370

Post by marcus_holmes »

engeljohnb wrote: post #219
panarky wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> human lives are the cost of making the wrong decisions ... True. > ... AI can't be allowed to be a decision maker Non sequitur. Part 2 only follows from the Part 1 if you can demonstrate that AI makes more errors, or more severe errors, than humans in the identical situation. And for those situations, I agree with you. But there are already many situations where the AI is making fewer errors than humans, and for th…

Since AI can't be held liable for mistakes, it's immaterial whether the AI makes fewer mistakes than humans.

Why can't the AI be held liable?

If I pay a company to do something, and that company uses an AI to do the thing, and the AI messes it up, why isn't the company liable?

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