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I'm sorry, you're not going to die from an AI-engineered supervirus

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Re: I'm sorry, you're not going to die from an AI-engineered supervirus

#31

Post by cobbzilla »

jeremyjh wrote: post #14
Metacelsus wrote: post #3

Just because the author can't think of a way to cause mass death with an engineered virus, doesn't mean an AI won't be able to think of one. (There are several biological threats the author hasn't considered. I'll just leave it at that.)

The author can't think of what a superintelligence will do, because they are not a superintelligence. But that is not really what people are concerned about, so I think the objections here are quite meaningful. If there is a fully general superintelligence - in the current state of alignment - we will all die for some reason. It doesn't really matter what the reason is.

please define fully general superintelligence & current state of alignment

is this a tautology?

Re: I'm sorry, you're not going to die from an AI-engineered supervirus

#33

Post by ghurtado »

zekefoppa wrote: post #18

I'm far from anything resembling an expert in biological weapons, but this seems to me puzzlingly overconfident in the opposite direction. > PhD students in 2026 using state-of-the-art AI software are spending months or years trying to design simple peptide binders that inhibit some enzyme or pull down some protein This confuses me, as state-of-the-art AI software is moving quite quickly. Any software that is current…

If you quote the article, then you are implicitly telling others that you have read it.

But it's pretty clear you have not?

Re: I'm sorry, you're not going to die from an AI-engineered supervirus

#35

Post by anigbrowl »

mepiethree wrote: post #15
infinite_spin wrote: post #2

https://archive.is/kH6U5

So somehow AI is able to magically create 100 lethal viruses with no logistical issues but is not able to make a cure due to logistical issues?

My immediate reaction to his

The doomsday virus has a first-mover advantage over the vaccine. The time that people start to drop dead from the virus is the time you start to make and distribute a vaccine. Even if AI can design and synthesize a vaccine within hours, how fast can it be rolled out to the general populace? It took months to distribute the Covid vaccines, even when we already knew how to make them. You have to physically load the doses on trucks[...]

was just 'make a viral vaccine with a shorter incubation period and infect everyone'. Handwavey problems require handwavey solutions.

Re: I'm sorry, you're not going to die from an AI-engineered supervirus

#36

Post by customguy »

mepiethree wrote: post #15
infinite_spin wrote: post #2

https://archive.is/kH6U5

So somehow AI is able to magically create 100 lethal viruses with no logistical issues but is not able to make a cure due to logistical issues?

> but is not able to make a cure due to logistical issues?

It says no such thing:

> they design highly effective mRNA vaccines and antivirals against all the viruses and start shipping them across the world. It’s too late.

Re: I'm sorry, you're not going to die from an AI-engineered supervirus

#37

Post by ewild »

janalsncm wrote: post #27

> When people believe that AI could figure this out on its own, without first running extensive and expensive basic science experiments, they have left the realm of science and have entered what can only be described as religion. I strongly agree with this. Too many people have the Arthur C Clarke quote infecting their brains. So much of science is contingent on the physical world and cannot be determined from first…

And if an agent were to amass a large sum of Bitcoin you don't think people wouldn't do things for money? Especially if they don't realize they are doing part 1 of 160 parts that get it to the end goal of a virus?

Re: I'm sorry, you're not going to die from an AI-engineered supervirus

#38

Post by Mathnerd314 »

dvduval wrote: post #7

That sounds like a good video game to spin up in Astra. Missile command was pretty cool. We didn’t destroy mankind with that one either.

Or you could just play the original Pandemic https://www.newgrounds.com/portal/view/360724

I think that's one detail that this analysis glosses over is that you design the virus to mutate and develop lethality. So initially, it's just like, oh, another common cold, but then once it's infected a large number of people, then it mutates and starts being lethal.

Re: I'm sorry, you're not going to die from an AI-engineered supervirus

#40

Post by GlibMonkeyDeath »

janalsncm wrote: post #27

> When people believe that AI could figure this out on its own, without first running extensive and expensive basic science experiments, they have left the realm of science and have entered what can only be described as religion. I strongly agree with this. Too many people have the Arthur C Clarke quote infecting their brains. So much of science is contingent on the physical world and cannot be determined from first…

Especially when it comes to biological things. Just look at Novartis this week - three failed clinical trials of promising drugs (https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/novartis-faces-...)

These are some of the brightest minds on the planet, spending oodles of money on things they think they understand. And they didn't work.

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