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What will our economic future look like?

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Re: What will our economic future look like?

#201

Post by saturn8601 »

Dlemlo wrote: post #41

I think we have a real problem because we know what we still need to build and as soon as it is build, it will work. Software development for example is enhanced with running your claude locally. But lets be honest, the right way to adjust 'project' is by writing some spec in a text field as an input, letting the ai do whatever it wants, having expert ais make sure its secure, then you do the last review and its done…

>The software market in China is imploding and we will also see budget adjustments to move away from consultants and move them into AI Token budgets. We probably reached peak software development.

I've always heard that there was always an overproduction of STEM in China and thus companies always wrote stuff in house instead of relying on SASS. Do you have any more info on this implosion of the software market? I have heard that there is 25% youth unemployment there but thats across all sectors. I wish there was someone providing more concrete examples of how China is using AI. All I keep hearing is they are pragmatically applying it across all sectors but I don't see what in particular they are doing.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#203

Post by leonidasrup »

psadauskas wrote: post #176
cucumber3732842 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>great, now we can run the same operation with fewer nurses" And outside of industries with government enforced perversions of simple "supply and demand" forces (we're not talking Nth level effects here) this means more access to the service or lower prices or both. Edit: Which is to say you won't see any benefit in healthcare but you will in a ton of other industries.

During the industrial revolution, people thought that all these new machines and factories and electricity meant that everyone would only have to work 4 hours a week since it made everyone so much more productive. That's not what happened, though. Everyone worked the same amount for the same pay, just in more miserable repetitive working conditions, while the factory owners kept all profits from the gains in producti…

" The central argument of Capital is that the motivating force of capitalism is in the exploitation of labour, whose unpaid work is the ultimate source of surplus value and profit. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Das_Kapital

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#204

Post by onlypassingthru »

dukeyukey wrote: post #128
JacobiX wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air travel is a good counterexample here: technology made airlines far more productive, but much of the gain went into lower staffing, higher throughput, and cost cutting not a better passenger experience

Being able to fly at all is a much better passenger experience than not having that choice in the first place. And I'll bet that flying first class today is far better than 50 years ago.

Would that be in one of the smoking or non-smoking seats in first class? Amazing how the smoke knew where to stay back then.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#205

Post by bigbuppo »

d3dd wrote: post #192
JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

It shows a complete lack of understanding of what these people actually do.

Never underestimate the ability of people in tech to misunderstand the real world. I'm sure there's a couple dozen xkcds about this.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#206

Post by marssaxman »

engeljohnb wrote: post #184
JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

I know this is just an example, but I'm going to say this every time the subject comes up: since human lives are the cost of making the wrong decisions, AI can't be allowed to be a decision maker of any kind in healthcare. If my blood pressure crashes because my nurse is caring for 15 patients at once and didn't notice that the AI decided to pause my norepinephrine, I won't consider "the AI did it" to be any acceptab…

Why wouldn't they just blame the nurse anyway? The law always puts somebody on the hook. The nurse's job will be to do what the AI says and take the blame when it fails.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#207

Post by bigbuppo »

JeremyNT wrote: post #172
JacobiX wrote: post #20

> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…

Exactly. If their productivity fantasies are real, the precarious (and already very anti-worker) balance between capital and labor immediately disintegrates. Serious solutions to this would look like nationalizing tech companies, mandating shorter work weeks, seizing the assets of the oligarchs and redistributing them. Not... letting the invisible hand of the market sort it all out.

Invisible hands are the tool of pickpockets.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#209

Post by d3dd »

bigbuppo wrote: post #205
d3dd wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It shows a complete lack of understanding of what these people actually do.

Never underestimate the ability of people in tech to misunderstand the real world. I'm sure there's a couple dozen xkcds about this.

Nah I fully expect it.

Its like the people who say "if you automate writing code, accounting etc is done too". Like ok bro.

Re: What will our economic future look like?

#210

Post by chrisjj »

jdiff wrote: post #173
watwut wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moreover, the nurse is frustrated, because she lost whatever agency and autonomy she had before. Her job is now obey whay AI said instead of making decisions by herself.

Marshall Brain really nailed it back in 2003 with Manna. https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 AI leaves humans as the limbs of the machine, with less and less thinking or comprehension required on their part.

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