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Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

current.fas.harvard.edu

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Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#51

Post by willsmith72 »

mlazos wrote: post #42
cypherpunks01 wrote: post #6

Unqualified use of the word "predicts" is a little bit of a stretch in this editorialized title. The study doesn't predict suicide attempts out of some type of biometric or otherwise observable data or surveillance information, it's predicting it from a self-survey. The actual journal article title tells the story much better: "Using smartphone surveys to predict next-week suicide attempts" https://psycnet.apa.org/do…

I don’t think you realize how often depressed people say they will but don’t commit suicide, and also being able to know when is quite remarkable - I think this study is pretty interesting, and not as obvious as you think it is.

yeah but look how much overhead this is

> They were sent brief (20-item) smartphone-based surveys 6 times/day for 3 months

Is that in any way realistic? 120 answers/day??

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#52

Post by Pannoniae »

dataviz1000 wrote: post #44

They asked people who survived jumping from the Golden Gate Bridge what they were thinking on the way down. They all said they felt instant regret the moment they let go of the rail.

Only the ones you could ask afterwards;) This is propaganda pretending that suicide is an impulsive decision. That's a category error because in many cases, it is not.

If there was more focus on screening for impulsive thoughts and disrupting people who suddenly change behaviour, modern suicide prevention would do much better. The people who really want to die do not engage with therapy or mental health services because they know they'll be having their freedom taken away if they mention their thoughts to anyone else. That's why many of these stories go like "oh he looked so happy! no one could have known" - yeah because he was smart enough not to say anything;)

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#54

Post by cypherpunks01 »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #20
cypherpunks01 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh it is a scientific prediction for sure. I am just saying that if a layperson were told, "I have invented a machine that can accurately predict when someone is going to do Z!", but then, while researching the technology behind how such a prediction is possible, turns out the machine simply has been repeatedly asking the person how likely it is they will be doing Z, how much they think about Z, etc, then the laypers…

What is a better term or qualification they could have used?

"Using smartphone surveys" is a pretty concise clarifier in the original title

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#55

Post by Vishal_Max »

Pannoniae wrote: post #49
Vishal_Max wrote: post #45

Just my perspective on this: A PhD student at my university recently died by suicide, and it made me realize that the way most of us cope or escape from difficult situations is shaped by what we consume, what we experience, and what we constantly see others doing. For most of us, that escape mechanism can be something else instead of taking such a drastic decision. If we can make sure people don’t grow up believing t…

You're so close to getting it. If you could somehow shelter people from the idea of ending it, you'd have created the torment nexus. People who do so usually do it because they see negative things coming up and they're too tired to continue. What you're advocating for is everyone to run an endless marathon where if you fall behind or stop, you'd get endlessly whipped to continue no matter how much your wounds are ble…

I think you're misunderstanding what I'm advocating for. I'm not saying people should be forced to run an endless marathon regardless of how badly they're suffering. I'm saying that when someone is suffering that badly, we should help them rather than let suicide become the way they escape from it.

I'm not blaming people for the circumstances they're in or saying their suffering isn't real. I'm questioning the environment that teaches people what to do when they reach that point. Different people go through incredibly difficult situations and develop different ways of coping. My point is that ending your life shouldn't be one of those ways.

If someone is so exhausted that they feel they can't continue, the answer should be to help them, change their circumstances where possible, and help them find another way through it. Otherwise, what is the point of helping someone who is suicidal in the first place?

The goal isn't to force people to keep suffering. The goal is to help them stop suffering without ending their life.

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#56

Post by CSSer »

willsmith72 wrote: post #51
mlazos wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you realize how often depressed people say they will but don’t commit suicide, and also being able to know when is quite remarkable - I think this study is pretty interesting, and not as obvious as you think it is.

yeah but look how much overhead this is > They were sent brief (20-item) smartphone-based surveys 6 times/day for 3 months Is that in any way realistic? 120 answers/day??

Makes me consider it just by thinking about enduring that

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#57

Post by ycombinete »

Pannoniae wrote: post #52
dataviz1000 wrote: post #44

They asked people who survived jumping from the Golden Gate Bridge what they were thinking on the way down. They all said they felt instant regret the moment they let go of the rail.

Only the ones you could ask afterwards;) This is propaganda pretending that suicide is an impulsive decision. That's a category error because in many cases, it is not. If there was more focus on screening for impulsive thoughts and disrupting people who suddenly change behaviour, modern suicide prevention would do much better. The people who really want to die do not engage with therapy or mental health services beca…

Surviving a fall from a bridge is not survivorship bias.

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#59

Post by epestr »

Pannoniae wrote: post #49
Vishal_Max wrote: post #45

Just my perspective on this: A PhD student at my university recently died by suicide, and it made me realize that the way most of us cope or escape from difficult situations is shaped by what we consume, what we experience, and what we constantly see others doing. For most of us, that escape mechanism can be something else instead of taking such a drastic decision. If we can make sure people don’t grow up believing t…

You're so close to getting it. If you could somehow shelter people from the idea of ending it, you'd have created the torment nexus. People who do so usually do it because they see negative things coming up and they're too tired to continue. What you're advocating for is everyone to run an endless marathon where if you fall behind or stop, you'd get endlessly whipped to continue no matter how much your wounds are ble…

Torment run would be becoming a masochist to cope. The comment likely refers to the ability in being able to identify the alternatives, and being flexible.

Torment run would be slogging under the student's adviser, the other option being reporting him, or switching advisers, or any other option life presents.

Re: Harvard study predicts most suicide attempts a week in advance

#60

Post by beepbooptheory »

cypherpunks01 wrote: post #54
beepbooptheory wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a better term or qualification they could have used?

"Using smartphone surveys" is a pretty concise clarifier in the original title

Hmm OK. If it's just that, it's a little hard here to see what you imagine we might think from the headline otherwise? If the 'machine' above is just hypothetical, what else? Is it that we might think the 'Harvard study' in question is literally clairvoyant?
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