The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger. A common response is “if they truly believe this, why are they still building it?”…
I resigned from Anthropic today
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Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#92Just wait till self improving AI are focused on the problems of social scoring and political party empowerment / entrenchment. I doubt the focus is OpenAI and Anthropic looking at each other. I suspect they’re racing BRIC.
Will you be optimizing your behaviour now to alleviate potential negative judgement from AI in the future?
At this point it’s inevitable that openclaw type bots will be turned loose by thieves to identify and research targets and try to exploit them for financial gain completely autonomously.
Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#93I don't know man, i think racing to AGI to it is still the best thing to do. People claiming dangers and risk are just pretending or posturing. There's no more tangible risk than nuclear weapons, which we handled, and the upsides are insane.
> There's no more tangible risk than nuclear weapons, which we handled What do you mean??? Nuclear weapons can't simply be downloaded and run by anyone in the entire world. Superintelligences can. Nuclear weapons can't slop the world into passing age verification laws nearly in unison, can't keep the general population fooled into thinking it's fine when democracy is falling out from under them. A nuclear attack woul…
Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#94I really, really disagree with that statement.
I don’t think ai models come close to nuclear weapons or to run-of-the-mill, everyday carbon emissions in terms of danger to humanity.
What’s the most dangerous thing that’s happened with an LLM so far? (This question is serious - maybe I don’t know the right examples.)
Example 1: I’m aware of a small number of people killing themselves in some kind of AI-facilitated psychosis. That is very unlikely to be a widespread problem.
Non-example 2: There are worries about AI-facilitated biological weapons. I haven’t seen any evidence that’s happening.
Non-example 3: I’m not interested in wild theories about AI driven labor market disruptions leading to widespread starvation. There’s no evidence for that.
Non-example 4: all the even-wilder Rationalist speculation about basilisks and the like is entirely divorced from reality.
I am looking for better reasons (supported by actual evidence!) to be more concerned than I am now: right now I am not concerned at all.
Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#95The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger. A common response is “if they truly believe this, why are they still building it?”…
Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#96This was a fringe belief until recently, but the progress of AI in research is impossible to ignore. Epecially in math, where not only has AI outstripped humans in generative ability, but is able to create scientific knowledge which is beyond the capacity of human comprehension.
There's clearly no intelligence task that AIs can't do due to some magic fundamental constraint. And it's hard to imagine a world where current limitations like poor sample efficiency or lack of continual learning won't eventually be solved.
Total AI compute is estimated to grow somewhere in the 1-10 million-fold range in the next decade. Please don't underestimate the phase change that's still coming.
Sure, maybe there's some plateau due to RL being fundamentally limited in some surprising way, but this is nothing but a hope.
Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#97“ No other human activity poses this level of danger.” I really, really disagree with that statement. I don’t think ai models come close to nuclear weapons or to run-of-the-mill, everyday carbon emissions in terms of danger to humanity. What’s the most dangerous thing that’s happened with an LLM so far? (This question is serious - maybe I don’t know the right examples.) Example 1: I’m aware of a small number of peopl…
Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#98I’m curious what the downsides are of taking statements like these seriously. There seems to be universal eye rolling that happens in each and every one of these cases, and it comes down to usually one reason: “If they really believed it they would be whistleblowing etc..” Completely forgetting that working at Los Alamos was basically the highlight of your life if you were a physicist in 1940. It’s no different here…
Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#99The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger. A common response is “if they truly believe this, why are they still building it?”…
What's more likely? Anthropic is doing some deeply unethical marketing in the lead up to their multi-trillion dollar IPO? Or they're inventing a machine god? There's ample evidence of the former because that's their entire business model, but no evidence whatsoever to support the latter claims.
If you want an extreme claim to be taken seriously, provide commensurate evidence.
Re: I resigned from Anthropic today
#100He resigned and now what? There are thousands willing to do his role, and many labs are competing in that race. His resignation and his statement doesn't do anything but buy him attention which is what all this post about in my opinion.
It buys attention for the issue. Many people (see other comments in this very post) refuse to believe these things. And by resigning he no longer has to feel personally guilty for what happens.