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On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

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Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#811

Post by closetheloopdev »

bananzamba wrote: post #794
closetheloopdev wrote: post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not here to judge since I don't have all the facts, but from what they announced: they tried all 6, found a probable lead to Navier-Stokes, concentrated efforts in that direction, and found a solution. I hope the next solved Millennium Prize Problem will have less drama.

But that lead happened to be the same approach Levent and Tristan had found... Meaning they would have found it first if OpenAI hadn't spent millions in compute on following their lead to its conclusion faster than them.

It's forced vs unforced Euler, so it's not exactly the same. Since OpenAI has access to their training data, they can probably scrub through the data to find out whether there have been any mentions of the similar approach, and whether it only comes from Tristan Buckmaster or if it is in the training data before that. They'll probably have to kick off another fleet of agents to scrub through the training data to answer that.

To be clear, I only talked about the mentioning of the approach to solving it and not of the proof in the training data.

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#812

Post by hellohello2 »

traes wrote: post #544
jakevoytko wrote: post #3

For full context, here's the HN thread from the other side of the "Concurrent Work" section: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49605915 Unlike the vanilla read of the OpenAI press release, it is much more unfiltered and outlines some particularly aggressive behavior by specific OpenAI employees

Which seems to be entirely true by their own admission! [0] Both the comments about him risking his career and about Levent's authorship seem to have indeed occurred. > 2) I never ever asked for Levent to be removed from authorship of his own work (as indicated by my text). I was surprised to learn during the call with Tristan that they had only solved Euler and not Navier-Stokes; after learning this we brainstormed…

Hm. Looks like its possible everyone behaved terribly here unfortunately. :/

I remained impressed by ChatGPT however!

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#813

Post by abathologist »

hmate9 wrote: post #5
minimaxir wrote: post #2

> Across all attempted problems, the agents sent 4.9 million messages and used about 300 billion output tokens Don't even try to do the math on how much that would cost at normal API prices. And we don't even know how much more expensive this internal-only model would be!

Napkin math if we assume gpt 6 astra on max is >$15 million (just for output tokens) for those wondering.

This could fund 10 top income mathematicians for 8 years (based on https://careers.usnews.com/best-jobs/mathematician/salary ). Imagine what kinds of results we'd have to transform the foundations of science if we were giving brilliant minds this kind of funding to do nothing but research for most of decade....

Instead, we get slop proofs that are technically correct as PR stunts to enable corrupt kleptocrats, and most likely will drive research into culs-de-sac.

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#814

Post by abathologist »

jiggawatts wrote: post #715
denverllc wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a way, I think you have it backwards. Two mathematicians, through insight and thought, wrote out the proof over 1-2 years. It took OpenAI a cost of $15m and with 10,000 subagents; that's around 60-120 mathematician's salaries ($250k-125k salary) for 1 year. And, given now the cloud that OpenAI may have just "interpolated" (aka stole) the result, it's even more of a bear case for AI.

> cost of $15m The retail price is not the cost. Not to mention that the exponential plummeting cost of tokens means that that $15 million will be a "pocket change" within a decade or less: https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/

> The retail price is not the cost.

True. The cost is probably much higher, since they are still subsidizing as part of the first phase of the enshitification playbook.

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#815

Post by senordevnyc »

applicative wrote: post #91
tedsanders wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that was the allegation last night. I work at OpenAI, though not on the team that did this, and my understanding is: - we decided to ask our model for Millenium problem solutions because of two reasons: (a) our new model was looking incredibly good and (b) we heard rumors that some Millenium problems had been solved and were curious if our models could solve them (the goal here was not to scoop any particular in…

Its funny, it is uniquely with this one act that I have turned forever on OpenAI, which I hitherto defended up and down against nonsense charges. I dedicate my life to its complete destruction beginning today.

Wow, the origin of a supervillain! /s

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#816

Post by piloto_ciego »

arctic-true wrote: post #35

Buried under the drama is the fact that OpenAI is claiming that an internal model they’ve been training for less than two weeks is more than twice as capable in mathematics as Astra, which was only made public a week ago. Even if this improvement is limited to mathematics, that is an astounding feat.

And... they found this "solution" in 88 hours or so.

It's all gas no brakes now boys and girls. Hold on to your hats!

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#817

Post by piloto_ciego »

noir_lord wrote: post #782
chilmers wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The implication from their last couple of published articles[1][2] is that they think they’ve achieved “recursive self improvement”. [1] https://openai.com/index/research-acceleration-view-inside-o... [2] https://openai.com/index/an-alien-mind/

Recursive self improvement of their upcoming IPO value maybe. They are fluffy PR pieces otherwise.

How can you possible say this sort of thing in context of what looks like a millenium prize being solved.

I swear there's nobody blinder than those who won't see.

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#818

Post by lukewarm707 »

moralestapia wrote: post #578
Imnimo wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>we did not read any private chats The question I am interested in is not "did we read private chats", but "was this new model trained using any of Tristan and Levent's chats, regardless of whether they were marked private". Can you comment on that?

>Can you comment on that? No answer is also an answer. He's a human, like everybody else. Mostly a bunch of hungry animals looking to put bread in our mouths. It's rarely ever something a bit more sophisticated than that.

his choice to defend the indefensible.

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#819

Post by dyauspitr »

TomJansen wrote: post #799
dyauspitr wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a lot of fun during Covid. I loved the working from home. The fact that most outdoor places were sparsely populated, jobs were plentiful and prices were low. Covid was awesome.

Yeah Covid was awesome, say that to the people who died from it, or who committed suicide because of the lockdown depression

Oh, pipe down, I’m talking about that 3 year period, not the disease. You can talk about things that happened during Covid without giving lip service to the people that died during it. If I mention SpaceX‘s first astronaut launch that happened during Covid, am I supposed to talk about the people that died during that period too?

Re: On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem

#820

Post by tim-kt »

joshka wrote: post #765
irthomasthomas wrote: post #702

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the goal was not to scoop them, why did openai put a massive team on this, working weekends, only after they heard rumors of the solution?

I worked at OpenAI previously, but don't know any of the people involved in this. My guess was it was probably this was more a nerd snipe than any action from OpenAI that was a "massive team" being put on it. Literally someone looking at this and asking "I wonder if our models are good enough yet". It's easy to assume that having access to massive compute amounts means significant coordination, but this assumes that…

They said that a customer would have paid around 15 million for the required compute. I can't imagine that this was not a significant internal spending even with "free" tokens.
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