But I think there is a bit more to this:
> Measuring token prediction differences (KL-divergence, top-1 predictions) is easy, but it does not tell us whether the model gets worse at solving tasks.
A common issue is that it's rarely mentioned on which dataset KL-divergence is computed. It seems the most common dataset is wikitext - maybe because of tradition, to make numbers more comparable? It's not measuring how well the model follows bf16 on agentic tasks.
I've been trying to check KLD recently for some quants of Qwen 3.8 27B, and the numbers are dramatically different, depending on which dataset you use. KLD computed on agentic traces is much higher, and top-1 % is way lower than if you compute it on chats or wiki text.
You look at a published number, and see "oh, nice, top1 is 99% - quant is different just in 1 token out of 100", but chances are it's computed on wiki, and on agentic / coding it can be 10 tokens out of 100.
Common intuition is that on agentic tasks errors compound, and that's why it degrades more than metrics show - but maybe the metrics themselves are also wrong, too optimistic.
Still investigating it though :)