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WeatherNext 3

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Re: WeatherNext 3

#81
post #31

It’s crazy we’ll never have forecasts as good as dark sky again. What kind of magic were they doing?

I never used that, but I like Rain Parrot in Australia. Not sure if it's similar. It will tell me that it's likely to rain in x minutes, then stop y minutes later, and it's almost always fairly accurate.

Re: WeatherNext 3

#82
post #68
post #31

It’s crazy we’ll never have forecasts as good as dark sky again. What kind of magic were they doing?

They're back at it again https://acmeweather.com/ https://www.theverge.com/tech/883089/acme-weather-forecast-a...

Oh, they finally launched it in Europe. Let’s see whether it’s as good as people say. :)

Re: WeatherNext 3

#83

In the energy world, this should be such a boon over the classic NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction; complex ML models), but I've not seen it implementated. Anyone with experience of these models over classic NWP?

Its not there because a lot of the providers werent providing until recently, and higher spatial resolutions, referesh times and higher compute costs meant that no one used them in prod. We tried with ECMWF-AIFS however ENS + IFS was bettter better.

Re: WeatherNext 3

#84
post #60

It's great that they're working on this, but I am puzzled at how absolutely awful the forecasts are in the Google weather app for my area. The forecast will show no rain, the radar view shows nothing, meanwhile it's pouring outside and every other app I check shows it. I know I can't expect it to be perfect, but being terribly wrong even one in ten times is enough to tarnish its reputation permanently.

It's because the current administration cut NOAAs funding, which means fewer weather balloons, which means less data to make a prediction. And it means less real time updates. So yeah, when it rains, it might take a few hours for that to flow into your weather app. It's a direct result of DOGE.

I've stopped using google weather here in the UK as well because of how inaccurate its been over the past few years and have just fallen back on the BBC. Maybe its related, maybe not.

Re: WeatherNext 3

#85
post #68
post #31

It’s crazy we’ll never have forecasts as good as dark sky again. What kind of magic were they doing?

They're back at it again https://acmeweather.com/ https://www.theverge.com/tech/883089/acme-weather-forecast-a...

well, that's interesting. the design it's a bit of a letdown - very very very low information density, lots of horizontal scrolling, a tab bar item dedicated to notifications (which one never changes) and another one dedicated to community (which is empty of content). Hopefully good data and good notifications make up for the poor design.

Re: WeatherNext 3

#86
post #60

It's great that they're working on this, but I am puzzled at how absolutely awful the forecasts are in the Google weather app for my area. The forecast will show no rain, the radar view shows nothing, meanwhile it's pouring outside and every other app I check shows it. I know I can't expect it to be perfect, but being terribly wrong even one in ten times is enough to tarnish its reputation permanently.

It's because the current administration cut NOAAs funding, which means fewer weather balloons, which means less data to make a prediction. And it means less real time updates. So yeah, when it rains, it might take a few hours for that to flow into your weather app. It's a direct result of DOGE.

This does pass the smell test. What is your evidence that DOGE has caused even one weather forecast to be less accurate?

Re: WeatherNext 3

#87
post #60

It's great that they're working on this, but I am puzzled at how absolutely awful the forecasts are in the Google weather app for my area. The forecast will show no rain, the radar view shows nothing, meanwhile it's pouring outside and every other app I check shows it. I know I can't expect it to be perfect, but being terribly wrong even one in ten times is enough to tarnish its reputation permanently.

It's because the current administration cut NOAAs funding, which means fewer weather balloons, which means less data to make a prediction. And it means less real time updates. So yeah, when it rains, it might take a few hours for that to flow into your weather app. It's a direct result of DOGE.

I'm interested on how you drew the cause/effect of this, is there non-biased sources? Has google said as much, and how does this explain why some models are more accurate?

Re: WeatherNext 3

#88
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because the current administration cut NOAAs funding, which means fewer weather balloons, which means less data to make a prediction. And it means less real time updates. So yeah, when it rains, it might take a few hours for that to flow into your weather app. It's a direct result of DOGE.

I've stopped using google weather here in the UK as well because of how inaccurate its been over the past few years and have just fallen back on the BBC. Maybe its related, maybe not.

Yeah, the Met Office and BBC (which I believe use data from Meteo France) are both much more accurate for "later today" weather than Google for me in London.

Google does update its forecast more frequently, and usually is as accurate as the others for the hour ahead. And the longer range 3+ day forecasts aren't noticeably worse either. It's just the intermediate 4 - 48 hour stuff that they're surprisingly terrible with, but that's exactly the time period I most care about in everyday use!

Re: WeatherNext 3

#89
post #60

It's great that they're working on this, but I am puzzled at how absolutely awful the forecasts are in the Google weather app for my area. The forecast will show no rain, the radar view shows nothing, meanwhile it's pouring outside and every other app I check shows it. I know I can't expect it to be perfect, but being terribly wrong even one in ten times is enough to tarnish its reputation permanently.

It's because the current administration cut NOAAs funding, which means fewer weather balloons, which means less data to make a prediction. And it means less real time updates. So yeah, when it rains, it might take a few hours for that to flow into your weather app. It's a direct result of DOGE.

Honestly, the iOS weather app is hyper accurate I’ve found in Europe in comparison to America…

It really does come down to data source quality and access…that’s the crux of it.

Re: WeatherNext 3

#90
post #41

There is a great article from the German Meteorological Service on WeatherNext 3 and how AI-based weather models will probably co-exist with physics-based ones. https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2026/9/6.html (German only)

This was posted recently on Show HN: https://nickleenders.github.io/verisky-scoreboard/?city=lond... which tracks performance of the main models (including the AI ones) in various locations.

There's also https://nickleenders.github.io/verisky-scoreboard/history.ht... which tracks the trends over time.

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