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Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

economist.com

111–120 of 164 posts

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#111
post #14

I hope this results in a rebalancing of the social and economic power of high-IQ versus average-IQ workers. We will need construction workers and tradespeople to build and maintain these AI data centers. Probably even with robots. But we won’t need as many engineers, lawyers, and other people whose job it is to consume and generate bits. If we tax the proceeds of AI generated productivity sufficiently, this could be…

I think it’s possible AI job disruption (or the threat thereof) could lead to a new labor movement capable of uniting people across the isle. It remains to be seen, but I think if the threat of a “permanent underclass” isn’t enough to get people to compromise and cooperate, nothing will.

People need to update their priors. The “permanent underclass” concern arose from a time when people thought AI was going to dominated by the first company to achieve it. But now we see that AI is becoming commoditized faster than almost any technology in recent history. IBM and Microsoft had a monopoly on personal computing for decades. AI is becoming a commodity before any of the AI companies have even turned a profit. AI is going to be like electric motors. If you had a monopoly on electric motors you could control the world! But instead they’re commodity products mass manufactured around the world

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#112
post #86
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-hosting takes either cloud- or on-prem-engineering chops, which are in short supply. In my view, that becomes the primary driver for lowering token costs. Secondary are the alternative model sources like Z.ai and Moonshot, which between open weights and lower prices help to drive commoditization. But there is a political risk with these, for example, Z.al is on the U.S. Department of Commerce Entity List, which…

On macs you just install a desktop app. What can be simpler? Decent Qwen models already doing some simpler types of agentic work.

Sure but if the customer installs the app on their own computer how do companies charge them a recurring subscription fee? Adobe can get away with it but most cannot.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#113
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“One million high-paying upper-middle class family supporting jobs were destroyed, but on the bright side, one million minimum-wage Walmart greeter jobs were created! See? We’re breaking even!”

Building and maintaining data centers aren’t minimum wage jobs. They are the best kind of jobs: accessible to somewhat above average people across a broad range of backgrounds. (As opposed to upper middle class knowledge worker jobs that are only accessible to the cognitive top 10%.)

I think we are kidding ourselves if we think writing software was only accessible to the cognitive top 10%. And even if that were the case for the highly paid software jobs, there was a long tail of WordPress customization type jobs that required less experience and will probably be going away.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#115
post #104

No they are not, try to change jobs and if you can't or takes a really long time you know this is some of the finest baloney. And no, it's not creating a lot of jobs, one one of the kind that will be destroyed by AI no, and that's the point... you built something that removes the pricey laywer, software developer, insurance policy writer, designer, etc... and replace it with a ONE TIME go work under the sun with no a…

And the robots are just a few years away. I thought that spatial reasoning was going to be a lot harder for AI, but Astra is showing that progress on that front is also moving very rapidly.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#116

I was laid off as a senior product manager in December of 2025. I’ve been looking for a new job in clean energy (which is supposedly “having a moment” due to data centers) since then. There is no “jobs boom”. There are certainly job openings — black holes into which you can lodge your resume. Occasionally, multiple rounds of interviews that go nowhere. I’ve been paying my bills as an art fabricator and live event ele…

There are no job openings. The ones you see are fake.

I've applied to the same FAANG opening in Sydney 3x over the last 1.5 years. It's not a real job as apparently they're not eager to fill it for years.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#117
post #104

No they are not, try to change jobs and if you can't or takes a really long time you know this is some of the finest baloney. And no, it's not creating a lot of jobs, one one of the kind that will be destroyed by AI no, and that's the point... you built something that removes the pricey laywer, software developer, insurance policy writer, designer, etc... and replace it with a ONE TIME go work under the sun with no a…

And the robots are just a few years away. I thought that spatial reasoning was going to be a lot harder for AI, but Astra is showing that progress on that front is also moving very rapidly.

humanoid robots are decades away, and they are not going to be good or cheap for a long time.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#118
post #32

I'm a consultant and I've already worked for multiple AI companies that shut down over the last two years. I think the main problem is that they all are relying on the big token providers and trying to capture value with various services. At some point the token costs will increase so much, it will put all of these AI companies out of business. Don't get me wrong. AI is definitely useful. The high costs are currently…

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Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#119
post #47
post #6

If most of the jobs its creating are related to construction of infrastructure then that's not really positive news as these jobs are temporary, once demand settles then why kind of jobs are going to be created? It might be benefiting other areas, but I think as the technology improves a lot of those are going to start looking like what's happening in software development (which is arguably what the technology is bes…

Isn't this true for "all" construction? Nobody says, "The housing construction jobs are temporary, we shouldn't count them." There will always be CapEx to spend.

People say this all the time and it's a huge issue. A main driver of current housing issues is that no one wants to over scale and have too many temporary jobs that disappear if housing demand slows down.

Datacenter construction jobs though are very very temporary and not really the kind of thing where we can keep building for no reason and then just tear down to rebuild again.

The reason we have so many "infrastructure" bills that are basically just build more roads is that there are so many temporary road construction jobs. If they don't keep building and those workers lose their jobs it's going to be a major crisis.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#120
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious about this imbalance? it's the seriously rich that have taken all of the spoils, that's where the massive imbalance is. I'm not disagreeing that some manual work require forms of intelligence that are undervalued in our society, and don't get me started about nurses, but still: What the Jeff Bezos!

> it's the seriously rich that have taken all of the spoils, that's where the massive imbalance is. It depends on how you define “spoils.” People define it to include notional paper wealth, and I think that doesn’t reflect the actual mechanics of economic imbalance. On paper, NVIDIA’s shareholders have increased their wealth by $4.8 trillion in five years, enough to buy all the residential real estate in New York Cit…

This is really a point that I think goes so misunderstood by so many. Yes billionaire's are bad, but people making 3x the median have a much bigger impact on those making median or less.
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