How is Cisco IPSec affected by this blockage? Any business or foreign mission conducting transactions in China should be very wary if they start targeting IPSec in any way.
...and by "Cisco IPSec" you mean "IPSec", right? I would assume, based on the various anecdotal reports I've read, that IPSec tunnels are blocked under this new program, along with PPTP and L2TP. They're using machine learning packet classifiers to identify the traffic running over tcp and udp, as well.
China has the power to be more selective about what it blocks. For example, Wikipedia is not blocked here (yet). But trying to access an article within Wikipedia on Tiananmen results in a dropped connection. Why China completely blocks entire blocks of ip addresses (like YouTube, Blogger, Wordpress) is not clear to me. There are a number of easy heuristics you could use to block most of what you don't want.
It is ironic to me that a government that preaches a belief in rationality (eg I received a text message last week urging citizens to believe in science and not the end of the world reports) would use censorship instead of rational debate/discussion to counter viewpoints it doesn't agree with.