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Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

economist.com

71–80 of 164 posts

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#71
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“One million high-paying upper-middle class family supporting jobs were destroyed, but on the bright side, one million minimum-wage Walmart greeter jobs were created! See? We’re breaking even!”

Building and maintaining data centers aren’t minimum wage jobs. They are the best kind of jobs: accessible to somewhat above average people across a broad range of backgrounds. (As opposed to upper middle class knowledge worker jobs that are only accessible to the cognitive top 10%.)

yes my comment was a satire of your thinking here, not an actual representation of reality

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#72
post #27

While I'm still catastrophically worried about what AI means for my career, I've noticed that my current employer - very AI forward, and growing the team - is still facing an ever expanding backlog. High productivity is generally good for the employee, unless you're productive enough you run out of work to do. So how much code is needed?

Yes I’ve seen very little change over the past 3 years in my role (platform engineering) except mostly JIRA tickets are more unreadable because people just have Claude vomit a novel into it. I mean I use it every day of course, but the velocity of work doesn’t really seem to be budging lol. And frankly a lot of time wasted on AI made gadgets, and meetings about those gadgets (look at this dashboard Claude made! etc)

So much of this yes, colleagues who think doing AI work is asking Claude to, as you so eloquently wrote "vomit a novel", and allow themselves to disengage their brains.

The joke is at the level of developers, the constant sharpening of AI merge-requests reviewing (sometimes too much) has made the new job of AI speedriding & reviewsfighting a serious brain squeeze.

The value of conscienciousness has skyrocketed, and the value of openness is still the same as it ever was.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#73
post #14

I hope this results in a rebalancing of the social and economic power of high-IQ versus average-IQ workers. We will need construction workers and tradespeople to build and maintain these AI data centers. Probably even with robots. But we won’t need as many engineers, lawyers, and other people whose job it is to consume and generate bits. If we tax the proceeds of AI generated productivity sufficiently, this could be…

Are you serious about this imbalance? it's the seriously rich that have taken all of the spoils, that's where the massive imbalance is.

I'm not disagreeing that some manual work require forms of intelligence that are undervalued in our society, and don't get me started about nurses, but still: What the Jeff Bezos!

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#74
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-hosting takes either cloud- or on-prem-engineering chops, which are in short supply. In my view, that becomes the primary driver for lowering token costs. Secondary are the alternative model sources like Z.ai and Moonshot, which between open weights and lower prices help to drive commoditization. But there is a political risk with these, for example, Z.al is on the U.S. Department of Commerce Entity List, which…

you seem to be discounting or unaware of the possibility of a) automating a significant chunk of new buildouts, and b) domestic companies seeking a slice of the “sell open model hosting for less than competitors” pie. I truly believe the cost per token for most people will eventually go approximately to zero even in the absence of subsidy unless there is a dramatic state intervention to curtail free computing and har…

Fair callout. Strongly discounting (b) and (a) is underspecified for me to respond reasonably.

Your premise of full token commoditization has a major wrinkle though. GPU-centric data centers with never allow tokens to go to zero since you have a 1.5 year technical deprecation and 5 year life on the GPUs. Maybe Cerebras or similar chip builders, after writing model weights to silicon, will improve those returns on capital and enabling the scaling you are envisioning.

From my perch, AI at the edge is severely underserved, and the GTM for the hyperscalers mostly ignore it. So if someone figures out how to scale AI at the edge (nvidia + HF perhaps) then I think your premise is on point.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#75
post #14

I hope this results in a rebalancing of the social and economic power of high-IQ versus average-IQ workers. We will need construction workers and tradespeople to build and maintain these AI data centers. Probably even with robots. But we won’t need as many engineers, lawyers, and other people whose job it is to consume and generate bits. If we tax the proceeds of AI generated productivity sufficiently, this could be…

Are you serious about this imbalance? it's the seriously rich that have taken all of the spoils, that's where the massive imbalance is. I'm not disagreeing that some manual work require forms of intelligence that are undervalued in our society, and don't get me started about nurses, but still: What the Jeff Bezos!

> it's the seriously rich that have taken all of the spoils, that's where the massive imbalance is.

It depends on how you define “spoils.” People define it to include notional paper wealth, and I think that doesn’t reflect the actual mechanics of economic imbalance. On paper, NVIDIA’s shareholders have increased their wealth by $4.8 trillion in five years, enough to buy all the residential real estate in New York City and LA combined. But $5 trillion in notional AI wealth isn’t actually the same as owning NYC and LA. The paper wealth doesn’t affect the average person meaningfully until someone actually buys something with it.

Given that, it’s more useful to define “spoils” in terms of finite goods and services and look at spending on those goods and services. That is what directly affects the average person—it’s what makes housing or education or Disney tickets or whatever harder to access.

And on that front, the income growth of the top 10% has had a much more significant impact on the average person. The top 10% accounts for half of consumer spending today, up from 35% in the 1990s. And that spending is coming from the upper middle class, not billionaires. Bezos might be worth a million times more than the average person, but he’s not buying a million times more housing or Disney tickets or hotel rooms. Instead, the average person is competing directly with the increasingly affluent top 10% for access to those finite resources.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#76
post #6

If most of the jobs its creating are related to construction of infrastructure then that's not really positive news as these jobs are temporary, once demand settles then why kind of jobs are going to be created? It might be benefiting other areas, but I think as the technology improves a lot of those are going to start looking like what's happening in software development (which is arguably what the technology is bes…

Most of these jobs are the same jobs that arose thanks to the CHIPS and IRA. Much of the AI boom and trade is building on top of the capex that arose from the semiconductor/hardware portfolio during that era. Many of the current DCs being built out are also being powered or tied with renewable energy projects that were funded by the IRA, as many DC builders with deep pockets do know the political dimension. If this i…

Skilled trade still isn't paying either.

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#77
"AI startups are hiring like there's no tomorrow."

For AI startups there eventually may be no tomorrow

How many of these startups are profitable

Perhaps the greatest "AI"-related job losses will be failed "AI" startups

More BS "jobs" created from throwaway investment capital instead of business success

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#78

> The Economist estimates that AI has so far created around 1m new jobs in America. That easily exceeds the roughly 200,000 lay-offs attributed to AI since mid-2023, and appears more than enough to offset weaker hiring in many back-office roles. America’s AI infrastructure splurge has created many of them. (...) That building spree requires armies of workers: electricians to wire them, HVAC specialists to stop racks…

I thought the whole thing was AI was leading to underhiring not necessarily layoffs

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#79
post #27

While I'm still catastrophically worried about what AI means for my career, I've noticed that my current employer - very AI forward, and growing the team - is still facing an ever expanding backlog. High productivity is generally good for the employee, unless you're productive enough you run out of work to do. So how much code is needed?

Yes I’ve seen very little change over the past 3 years in my role (platform engineering) except mostly JIRA tickets are more unreadable because people just have Claude vomit a novel into it. I mean I use it every day of course, but the velocity of work doesn’t really seem to be budging lol. And frankly a lot of time wasted on AI made gadgets, and meetings about those gadgets (look at this dashboard Claude made! etc)

> Claude vomit

Stealing this, will use instead of AI slop!

Re: Initial effects of AI technology on employment look positive

#80
post #14

I hope this results in a rebalancing of the social and economic power of high-IQ versus average-IQ workers. We will need construction workers and tradespeople to build and maintain these AI data centers. Probably even with robots. But we won’t need as many engineers, lawyers, and other people whose job it is to consume and generate bits. If we tax the proceeds of AI generated productivity sufficiently, this could be…

> If we tax the proceeds of AI generated productivity sufficiently That's not going to happen.

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