51–60 of 164 posts
AI boosters: "look, AI is creating jobs, all of these doomers scaring you with job loses, don't listen to them" also AI boosters: "we are going to build a million robots, and the robots will build factories producing robots, there will be infinite abundance, nobody will need to work anymore"
If most of the jobs its creating are related to construction of infrastructure then that's not really positive news as these jobs are temporary, once demand settles then why kind of jobs are going to be created? It might be benefiting other areas, but I think as the technology improves a lot of those are going to start looking like what's happening in software development (which is arguably what the technology is bes…
I'd be rich if I knew what the next big thing was but the economy has been running on the assumption that there will be a next big thing for many, many decades. Each cycle has the same rhymes of "what happens when it ends" questions but there has always something.
I'm a consultant and I've already worked for multiple AI companies that shut down over the last two years. I think the main problem is that they all are relying on the big token providers and trying to capture value with various services. At some point the token costs will increase so much, it will put all of these AI companies out of business. Don't get me wrong. AI is definitely useful. The high costs are currently…
Why assume token costs will increase as opposed to become commoditized?
Paywalled > On September 4th the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the American economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far above expectations. Good news that ought to be taken with a pinch of salt given how the current administration responds to unfavorable BLS data - > On Friday, August 1, [2025] President Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer from her role as the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BL…
Trust me I do the same.
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>The Economist, Silicon Valley's primary submarine, dispels the notion that AI causes unemployment because SV has realized that the peasants get unruly. ??? From a few months ago: https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20260516_DE_...
Now protests are getting louder and the midterms are close.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why assume token costs will increase as opposed to become commoditized?
Self-hosting takes either cloud- or on-prem-engineering chops, which are in short supply. In my view, that becomes the primary driver for lowering token costs. Secondary are the alternative model sources like Z.ai and Moonshot, which between open weights and lower prices help to drive commoditization. But there is a political risk with these, for example, Z.al is on the U.S. Department of Commerce Entity List, which…
I truly believe the cost per token for most people will eventually go approximately to zero even in the absence of subsidy unless there is a dramatic state intervention to curtail free computing and hardware R&D and manufacturing.
I've spent 10 years implementing new technology into businesses from all over the world and the thing that has killed the most projects at the proof of concept phase has not been whether it works. It's whether the cost of going to production from PoC produces a significant ROI. AI is absolutely changing the economics there. Humans were simply nowhere near answering all the useful questions they had which software cou…
> Now, software is cheaper and so people who couldn't afford to answer questions they've long wondered about can afford to answer them. Temporarily. Token price will rise sharply when the bills finally come due.
That provides continuous downward pressure on token prices even if it isn’t Astra level