Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

defensenews.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 60 posts

Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

#41

Post by phkahler »

fedpost wrote: post #5
neaden wrote: post #2

I mean, if we have a war with Russia that involves destroying satellites, it seems like there is a pretty big chance that means it's going nuclear and we'll have bigger fish to fry.

It's becoming increasingly likely that satellites will be targeted in even low intensity conflicts. Bear in mind that lasers are getting more powerful so you don't need to vaporize the satellite, just perform a mission kill by torching the FPA behind the lens.

China destroyed a sat with a laser years ago. Not disabled - destroyed. It created a bunch of debris.

Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

#43

Post by toss1 »

NooneAtAll3 wrote: post #21

what kind of war are the authors expecting, where war against Russia/China destroys sattelites, but still leaves millions of graduates alive? population would be the first thing dropping off in the nuclear exchange

They are likely expecting the same kind of war we are already in with Russia; in which Russia tries to keep its attacks just below the threshold of open war and its rhetoric and "negotiations" about "seeking peace".

Russia have already attacked subsea cables, openly assassinated targets in many countries, shot down civilian airliners, made multiple drone attacks in Europe, and more. They go for plausible deniability and/or exploit western politicians' desire to avoid conflict and "not escalate" on their watch (and nevermind western politicians already craven to them from the current US President to other parties including AfD, French National Party, etc.).

It is entirely plausible this will escalate to Russia taking out a few satellites, with either kinetic or directed-energy weapons, and the need to replace them. Indeed Russia has been observed testing such systems in the recent years.

There is no need to assume nuke use at all for something to get to the stage of taking out satellites. Taking out satellites with kinetic or energy weapons would definitely leave millions of graduates alive.

Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

#44

Post by noir_lord »

nickff wrote: post #34
chmod775 wrote: post #31

Somehow I doubt that after a war with China, satellites would be high on the priority list of things that need rebuilding. You'd probably start with rebuilding more basic manufacturing and refinery industry destroyed during the war.

Most of the planning for possible conflict between the USA and China is for a more limited conflict, such as an invasion of Taiwan.

Planning only/mostly for a limited conflict when both parties are well armed, large industrial powers is pretty short sighted (not to mention both nuclear powers).

Conflicts escalate in unpredictable ways across history because once you start it's really hard to stop sometimes.

The US has grown used to been able to enter a war on its terms and exit on its terms and against the people they've been fighting since Korea that's been entirely possible because they can just leave and the combatants on the other side couldn't really do a lot to the US once they'd gone.

China isn't that.

Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

#45

Post by airstrike »

doublescoop wrote: post #24
skybrian wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shortages can't be defined out of existence this way. Markets don't magically train workers or provide security clearances. People have to do that.

But markets can make doing those things financially worthwhile.

At most, markets can show whether they are financially worthwhile.

The market doesn't have agency. It's a projection of people's preferences.

Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

#46

Post by [deleted] »

topspin wrote: post #17
honkycat wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We no longer have the culture, the expertise, or the infrastructure to do these things. They moved it all overseas and to Mexico to save a quick buck. America is dead.

SpaceX has >11,000 satellites whipping around the planet. They increased the number of LEO sats by nearly one order of magnitude in bit more than 5 years. So apparently, in the US, the culture, expertise and infrastructure do exist to do these things.

[deleted]

Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

#47

Post by cr125rider »

doublescoop wrote: post #24
skybrian wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shortages can't be defined out of existence this way. Markets don't magically train workers or provide security clearances. People have to do that.

But markets can make doing those things financially worthwhile.

One of the bigger problems with capitalism is that it reacts much too slowly to be a viable economic system.

Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

#48

Post by bluGill »

Georgelemental wrote: post #29

We "lack workers to rebuild" many things that could be lost in a war with peer thermonuclear-armed powers. The only winning move is not to play

Unfortunately, you don't always get that choice. Just look at what Putin did to Ukraine. There was absolutely no reason for him to play that, but he did.

Yes, you should work for peace, but beware that it's not always possible. Or maybe I should say not always acceptable. It certainly would have been possible for Ukraine to give in, but I don't blame them for not accepting that option.

Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report

#50

Post by chmod775 »

nickff wrote: post #34
chmod775 wrote: post #31

Somehow I doubt that after a war with China, satellites would be high on the priority list of things that need rebuilding. You'd probably start with rebuilding more basic manufacturing and refinery industry destroyed during the war.

Most of the planning for possible conflict between the USA and China is for a more limited conflict, such as an invasion of Taiwan.

The US absolutely should expect for their industry to get hit in a conflict like that.

China knows that the general attitude towards war in the US population is strongly skewed by the fact that they haven't had to deal with the fallout of war on their home turf in recent memory. To the US, war is currently something that happens somewhere else, not at home.

In a conflict, it would just be smart to correct that attitude immediately, and China has the means to do so. Many data centers, major refineries, large industrial targets, and important pieces of the US' supply chain I'd expect to not last the week.

Also China is not going to sit there, taking a beating, and let the US keep the support base that allows them project power overseas (including attitude to war) when it is within China's means to severely cripple the US' ability to do so. China has the home-turf advantage, allowing them to fight the same war for cheaper, guaranteeing victory even if the US retaliates in kind.

Will there be a conflict over Taiwan though? I strongly suspect that if China started blockading Taiwan tomorrow, no other power would do anything about it, because there's no realistic path to win that conflict. It might just get handed over with no shots fired.

There'd be meetings, and negotiating tables, and strongly worded threats, and sanctions, but eventually some agreement would be signed for the transfer of Taiwan.

Post reply on HN