Somehow I doubt that after a war with China, satellites would be high on the priority list of things that need rebuilding.
You'd probably start with rebuilding more basic manufacturing and refinery industry destroyed during the war.
Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
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Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, there wouldn’t be. Space is huge. There aren’t that many satellites, and even the largest are relatively small.
I presume "anti-satellite campaign" means hundreds of anti-satellite missiles launched into LEO / MEO, at which point we do have a serious problem
Kessler Syndrome is a very specific accusation. It would be a disaster for sure, but not KS.
Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#33You could say the same thing about any military hardware during a peace-time economy. It’s not a matter if it exists, it’s a matter if the relevant knowledge exists in domestic/friendly industrial base. The U.S. is making more satellites than the rest of the world combined right now.
It is also a question of spin up time. If the demand suddenly existed to rebuild satellites en masse, the lead time on labor resources is part of the total time to rebuild. It becomes concerning if and only if either a) for strategic reasons the time is inadequate, or b) the lead time requires generational training efforts, e.g. college programs, national initiatives, etc. which can't behave predictably in response t…
Broadly speaking, sure. But you’re not trying to rebuild every single one. At this point you’re in a war, things move faster, and there are a million unknowns. Under the given scenario, it appears that satellites have lost their usefulness akin to tanks in Ukraine. It’s not a matter if you can build satellites, merely if you can stay ahead of your adversary. At present the U.S. can launch more and faster mass to orbit. I’d be more concerned about that than anything else in the provided scenario.
Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#34Somehow I doubt that after a war with China, satellites would be high on the priority list of things that need rebuilding. You'd probably start with rebuilding more basic manufacturing and refinery industry destroyed during the war.
Most of the planning for possible conflict between the USA and China is for a more limited conflict, such as an invasion of Taiwan.
Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#35I think there would be a Kessler Syndrome within a few weeks of an anti-satellite campaign at which point trying to launch replacements wouldn't make any sense.
Wouldn't that depend a lot on what and how much were targeted?
Seems a sufficient number of satellites in a particular orbital altitude and inclination would be required to create a self-sustaining cascade.
Even then, the Delta-V of tens to hundreds of m/sec to for violent intercepts seems unlikely to eject debris into different orbital regimes; e.g., it takes nearly 4km/sec Delta-V to move from LEO to Geosynchronous orbit. So, totally Kessler-Syndrome-destroying the LEO orbital range would still leave GEO orbital range available...?
Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#36To paraphrase patio11, a disagreement between you and the market is not a shortage. I'm surprised that anyone still believes the perennial "labor shortage" complaints. It has always been about employers refusing to improve wages and working conditions.
Shortages can't be defined out of existence this way. Markets don't magically train workers or provide security clearances. People have to do that.
>> People have to do that.
Companies can train people too.
Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#37To paraphrase patio11, a disagreement between you and the market is not a shortage. I'm surprised that anyone still believes the perennial "labor shortage" complaints. It has always been about employers refusing to improve wages and working conditions.
Shortages can't be defined out of existence this way. Markets don't magically train workers or provide security clearances. People have to do that.
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Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#38I think there would be a Kessler Syndrome within a few weeks of an anti-satellite campaign at which point trying to launch replacements wouldn't make any sense.
Wouldn't that depend a lot on what and how much were targeted? Seems a sufficient number of satellites in a particular orbital altitude and inclination would be required to create a self-sustaining cascade. Even then, the Delta-V of tens to hundreds of m/sec to for violent intercepts seems unlikely to eject debris into different orbital regimes; e.g., it takes nearly 4km/sec Delta-V to move from LEO to Geosynchronous…
Depending on the density of debris in LEO it might be very difficult to launch through to the higher orbits.
Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#39Somehow I doubt that after a war with China, satellites would be high on the priority list of things that need rebuilding. You'd probably start with rebuilding more basic manufacturing and refinery industry destroyed during the war.
>> Somehow I doubt that after a war with China, satellites would be high on the priority list of things that need rebuilding.
If GPS goes down, most of our communications will go down. A lot of other stuff falls from there. I suspect we'd be OK after a brief adjustment, but it would be very disruptive.
Re: Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war: report
#40To paraphrase patio11, a disagreement between you and the market is not a shortage. I'm surprised that anyone still believes the perennial "labor shortage" complaints. It has always been about employers refusing to improve wages and working conditions.
Shortages can't be defined out of existence this way. Markets don't magically train workers or provide security clearances. People have to do that.
They can hire people they can train. They chose not to, instead (whenever possible) whine for visas so they can steal trained professionals off less developed countries